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Judgments and Decisions Psych 253. Multi-attribute Decisions (often “riskless” decisions) Job example Introducing uncertainty to the mix. Defining the problem Setting goals and choosing frames Gathering information Identifying options

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judgments and decisions psych 253
Judgments and DecisionsPsych 253
  • Multi-attribute Decisions (often “riskless” decisions)
  • Job example
  • Introducing uncertainty to the mix
slide2

Defining the problem

Setting goals and choosing frames

Gathering information

Identifying options

Assessing the pros and cons of the more attractive options

Applying the criteria for selection

Selecting a preferred course of action

Implementing the decision and adjusting if necessary

Monitoring results and revising as needed

from the trivial to the crucial
From the trivial to the crucial
  • Deciding where to go to lunch
  • Deciding what summer job to take
  • Deciding what career to pursue
  • Deciding which medical treatment to get
  • Deciding where to build a nuclear power plant
  • Deciding what programs to fund
  • Deciding how to jumpstart the economy
slide4

1. Defining the problem

Knowing what you care about and knowing your priorities when there are multiple concerns

2 setting goals and choosing frames
2. Setting goals and choosing frames
  • Identifying Objectives
  • Structuring Objectives into a Hierarchy
  • Specifying Attributes to Measure the Degree to which each Objective is Achieved
  • Quantifying Values for Levels of Attributes
  • Combining Attributes into a Multi-Attribute Value Function
slide6
Considering multiple reference points and multiple perspectives on the problem

Take an inside and outside view

3 gathering information
3. Gathering information

What is the greatest danger to good information gathering?

Not insufficient time, but our own mental biases and distortions; the inability to know what we need to know.

4 identifying options
4. Identifying options

What are the ways to treat my cancer?

Which job offers should I seriously consider?

Where could we go on a vacation?

5 assessing the pros and cons of the more attractive options
5. Assessing the pros and cons of the more attractive options

Identify Objectives

Specify Attributes to Measure the Degree to which each Objective is Achieved

Quantify Values for Levels of Attributes

5 applying criteria for selection
5. Applying criteria for selection

Minimize Time?

Minimize Cost?

Minimize Risk?

Maximize Safety

Maximize Performance?

Usually involves determining the relative importance of these variables

6 selecting a preferred course of action
6. Selecting a preferred course of action

Based on sound reasoning

Based on combinations of information, beliefs, and values

7 implementing the decision and adjusting if necessary
7. Implementing the decision and adjusting if necessary

A commitment to following through. Might mean time, energy, resources, social embarrassment, peer pressure, risk, or uncertainty.

8 monitoring results and revising as needed
8. Monitoring results and revising as needed

Looking back and asking yourself, “What would I have done differently?”

Learning from experience

the summer job
The Summer Job

With two job offers in hand, Sam was uncertain about what to do. One job was an assistant at a local gardening business. The job would pay $20.50 per hour, require 30 to 40 hours per week, and hours would be primarily during the week, leaving the weekends free to spend with friends. The job would last for 3 ½ months (14 weeks), but the exact number of hours was uncertain.

slide19
The second job was to work as a member of a trail maintenance crew for the Sierra Club. The job would require 10 weeks of hard work, 40 hours per week at $25 per hour, in a national forest in a neighboring state. The job would involve extensive camping and backpacking. Members of the maintenance crew would come from a large geographical area and spend the entire 10 weeks together, including weekends. Although Sam had no doubts about how much he would make, he didn’t know if he would like the people. 10 weeks together could mean anything.
what are sam s objectives
What are Sam’s objectives?
  • How can he measure them?
slide21
5 = Large, congenial group with many new friends. Work is enjoyable, and time passes quickly

4 =Small, congenial group. Work is interesting, and time off is spent with a few friends doing enjoyable things.

3 = No new friends. Leisure hours are spent with old friends doing typical things. Pay is fair for the work done.

slide22
2 = Work is difficult. Coworkers complain about the low pay and poor conditions. On some weekends, it is possible to spend time with a few friends, but other weekends are boring.

1 = Work is extremely difficult and conditions are poor. Time off work is boring because outside activities are limited or no one is available.

slide23

.10

.25

.40

.20

.05

5

4

Salary Fixed

3

Sierra

Club

Job

2

1

40 hrs

Enjoyment Known

.15

.50

.35

Gardening

Job

35 hrs

30 hrs

slide24
Sierra Club Job Salary

= $23 per hr X 40 hrs per week X 10 weeks

= $9200

Gardening Job Salary

If 30 hrs, $20.50 X 30 hrs X14 weeks = $8,610

If 35 hrs, $20.50 X 35 hrs X 14 weeks = $10,045

If 40 hrs, $20.50 X 40 hrs X 14 weeks = $11,480

Expected Salary = .35 * 8610 + .50 * 10045 +

.15 * 11480 = $9758

slide25
Fun Salary

Sierra Club 5 $9,200

4 $9,200

3 $9,200

2 $9,200

1 $9,200

Gardening 3 $8,610

3 $10,045

3 $11,480

slide26
w=.4 w=.6

Fun Salary

Sierra Club 100 75 85

75 75 75

50 75 65

25 75 55

0 75 45

Gardening 60 0 24

60 85 75

60 100 84

slide27
Expected utility for Sierra Club job

= .10*85 + .25*75 + .40*65 + .15*55 + .10*45

= 66

Expected utility for Gardening Job

= .15*24 + .50*75 +. 35*84 = 70.5

even hamlet could have used decision analysis
Even Hamlet could have used decision analysis....

Bear whips and scorns of time

Oppressor’s wrong

Proud man’s contumely

Pangs pf dispriz’d love

Law’s delay

Insolence of office

Spurns that patient merit of the unworthy takes

Suffer the

slings and

arrows of

Outrageous

fortune

Bear the

ills we

have

End the heartache

and the thousand

Natural shocks that

Flesh is heir to; a

Consumption devoutly

To be wished

To be

Not

Dream

Not to be

Take arms

against a

sea of troubles

Dream

Ills we

know not of