Judgments and Decisions Psych 253. Multi-attribute Decisions (often “riskless” decisions) Job example Introducing uncertainty to the mix. Defining the problem Setting goals and choosing frames Gathering information Identifying options
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Setting goals and choosing frames
Assessing the pros and cons of the more attractive options
Applying the criteria for selection
Selecting a preferred course of action
Implementing the decision and adjusting if necessary
Monitoring results and revising as needed
Knowing what you care about and knowing your priorities when there are multiple concerns
Take an inside and outside view
What is the greatest danger to good information gathering?
Not insufficient time, but our own mental biases and distortions; the inability to know what we need to know.
What are the ways to treat my cancer?
Which job offers should I seriously consider?
Where could we go on a vacation?
Specify Attributes to Measure the Degree to which each Objective is Achieved
Quantify Values for Levels of Attributes
Usually involves determining the relative importance of these variables
Based on sound reasoning
Based on combinations of information, beliefs, and values
A commitment to following through. Might mean time, energy, resources, social embarrassment, peer pressure, risk, or uncertainty.
Looking back and asking yourself, “What would I have done differently?”
Learning from experience
With two job offers in hand, Sam was uncertain about what to do. One job was an assistant at a local gardening business. The job would pay $20.50 per hour, require 30 to 40 hours per week, and hours would be primarily during the week, leaving the weekends free to spend with friends. The job would last for 3 ½ months (14 weeks), but the exact number of hours was uncertain.
4 =Small, congenial group. Work is interesting, and time off is spent with a few friends doing enjoyable things.
3 = No new friends. Leisure hours are spent with old friends doing typical things. Pay is fair for the work done.
1 = Work is extremely difficult and conditions are poor. Time off work is boring because outside activities are limited or no one is available.
= $23 per hr X 40 hrs per week X 10 weeks
Gardening Job Salary
If 30 hrs, $20.50 X 30 hrs X14 weeks = $8,610
If 35 hrs, $20.50 X 35 hrs X 14 weeks = $10,045
If 40 hrs, $20.50 X 40 hrs X 14 weeks = $11,480
Expected Salary = .35 * 8610 + .50 * 10045 +
.15 * 11480 = $9758
Sierra Club 5 $9,200
Gardening 3 $8,610
Sierra Club 100 75 85
75 75 75
50 75 65
25 75 55
0 75 45
Gardening 60 0 24
60 85 75
60 100 84
= .10*85 + .25*75 + .40*65 + .15*55 + .10*45
Expected utility for Gardening Job
= .15*24 + .50*75 +. 35*84 = 70.5
Bear whips and scorns of time
Proud man’s contumely
Pangs pf dispriz’d love
Insolence of office
Spurns that patient merit of the unworthy takes
End the heartache
and the thousand
Natural shocks that
Flesh is heir to; a
To be wished
Not to be
sea of troubles
know not of