Disaster

1. Disaster A major hazard event that causes widespread disruption to a community or region that the affected community is unable to deal with adequately without outside help.

2. Hazard A threat (whether natural or human) that has the potential to cause loss of life, injury, property damage, socio-economic disruption or environmental degradation.

3. Hazard event The occurrence (realization) of a hazard, the effects of which change demographic, economic and/or environmental conditions.

4. Hurricane Katrina 2005

5. Risk The probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences (expected losses in terms of deaths, injuries, property damage, economyand environment).

6. Vulnerability The susceptibility of a community to a hazard or to the impacts of a hazard event.

7. 1. Characteristics of hazards

8. Characteristics “Explain the characteristics and spatial distribution of the following hazards: . Earthquakes . Hurricanes (tropical cyclones, typhoons) . Droughts . Any one recent human-induced (technological) hazard (explosion or escape of hazardous material)”.

9. “Distinguish between the chosen hazards in terms of their spatial extent, predictability, frequency, magnitude, duration, speed of onset and effects”.

10. Spatial/areal extent = the size of the area covered by the hazard Predictability =the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast can be made Frequency = how often an event of a certain size occurs Magnitude = the size of the event (Richter scale, Saffir-Simpson scale 1-5 etc.) Duration = the length of time (from seconds to decades) Speed of onset = difference between the start of the event and the peak of the event Effects Characteristics

11. Disasters appear to be increasing in frequency Ecumene Vulnerability Overview

12. Spatial distribution Geophysical hazards tend to cluster along fault boundaries. Hydro-meteorological processes strongly affect the eastern coastal regions of the major continents as well as some interior regions of North and South America, Europe and Asia. Drought is more widely dispersed across the semi-arid tropics.

13. Earthquake Case Study MEDC: L'Aquila, Italy, 2009 LEDC: Port-au-Prince, Haiti 2010 (Pages 222-223 in Geography Course Companion) Alice: Asian tsunami 2004 Geography All the Way

14. Hurricane Case StudyMEDC Hurricane Katrina 2005 LEDC Cyclone Nargis 2008 (Pages 206-207 in Geography Course Companion)

15. Drought Case Study MEDC: Murray-Darling Basin Drought LEDC: Horn of Africa PPT on Geo-revision.net called Droughts

16. Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate, although many erroneously consider it a rare and random event. It occurs in virtually all areas, whatever their normal climate may be, and the characteristics of a drought may be very different from one region to another. Technically, drought is a “temporary” condition, even though it may last for long periods of time. Unlike many disasters which are sudden, droughts result when there is less than normal precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more. The decreased water input results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought can also occur when the temperature is higher than normal for a sustained period of time; delays in the start of the rainy season or rain at the “wrong” time. High winds and low relative humidity can make matters much worse. Drought is not a disaster for nature itself, the disaster occurs when we consider the demand people place on their water supply. Human beings often increase the impact of drought because of high use of water which cannot be supported when the natural supply decreases. Droughts occur in both developing and developed countries and can result in economic and environmental impacts and personal hardships. All societies are vulnerable to this "natural" hazard.

17. 2. Vulnerability

18. Ecumene Vulnerability Overview

19. Richter Scale

20. Vulnerable populations Explain the reasons why people live in hazardous areas.

21. Park (1992) identifies several related factors; Unpredictability Lack of alternatives Changing level of risk Cost verse benefit Perception of risk In many cases, people expose themselves to risk because they often underestimate the scientifically or statistically probability of hazard events occurring. Thus they continue to live in hazardous environments because of poor risk perception.

22. Vulnerability Discuss vulnerability as a function of demographic and socio‑economic factors, and of a community’s preparedness and ability to deal with a hazard event when it occurs.

23. Explain the reasons for some sectors of a population being more vulnerable than others.

24. Vulnerability depends on: - Population density (rapidly growing, large urban areas like New Orleans -) - Understanding of the area (recent shanty town dwellers -) - Public education (educational programmes in Japan +) - Awareness of hazards (2004 tsunami -) - The existence of early-warning system (hurricanes in the USA +) - Effectiveness of lines of communication (Sichuan 2008 +) - Availability and readiness of emergency personnel (Cyclone Nargis in Burma -)

25. 3. Risk and risk assessment

26. Analysis of risk Examine the relationships between the degree of risk posed by a hazard and the probability of a hazard event occurring, the predicted losses and a community’s preparedness for it.

27. Analysis of riskR = H x Pop x Vul Risk (expected number killed) Hazard occurrence probability (annual) Population in a given exposed area Vulnerability – depends on sociopolitico-economic context

28. The areas of high risk of economic losses are more widely distributed in industrial and lower-middle income countries than areas of high mortality risk.

29. Explain the reasons why individuals and communitiesoften underestimate the probability of hazard events occurring.

30. Delayed impact (Al Gore’s frog in boiling water http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7_3Wmet9IQ) Drought in Ethiopia 2003 and 2008 Flooding Global warming with its consequences Long overdue Volcanic eruption expected in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia. Huge earthquake in California. Most people in Australia do not know about this. The Californians might start to believe it is not going to happen in their lifetime. Little media attention (in Australia but not in California) Unfamiliar hazard (Boxing Day tsunami, Indonesia 2004) (1994 Northridge earthquake was not predicted and it occurred on a fault that scientists did not know existed). Proper risk assessment is rarely carried out, particularly in developing countries (UN). We do not know enough of the impact of climate change at the local level (UN). People in the USA, for instance, do not realize that it is extreme weather – very hot summers and very cold winters – that cause the most deaths. Lack of belief in authority (young population)/Trust in authority (that they will be able to control the hazard – like ice on motorway) Statistical victims (It won’t happen to me – like cigarette smokers believe. Me in San Fransciso).

31. Delayed impact (volcanic eruption in Australia, drought in Ethiopia) Little media attention (volcanic eruption in Australia)

32. Discuss the factors that determine an individual’s perception of the risk posed by hazards.

33. - experience- material well-being- personality Page 217 of Geography Course Guide

34. Hazard eventprediction Examine the methods used to make estimates (predictions) of the probability (in time and space) of hazard events occurring, and of their potential impact on lives and property.

35. Discuss these methods by examining case studies relating to two different hazard types.

36. 4. Disasters

37. Definition Distinguish between a hazard event and a disaster (see first slides). Explain why this distinction is not always completely objective.

38. Measuring disasters Describe the methods used to quantify the spatial extent and intensity of disasters.

39. Explain the causes and impacts of any one disaster resulting from a natural hazard.

40. Explain the causes and impacts of any one recent human‑induced hazard event or disaster.

41. Chernobyl Ukraine, 1986

42. Examine the ways in which the intensity and impacts of disasters vary in space and have changed over time.

43. 5. Adjustments and responses to hazards and disasters

44. Responses to the risk ofhazard events Discuss the usefulness of assessing risk before deciding the strategies of adjustment and response to a hazard.

45. Describe attempts that have been made to reduce vulnerability by spreading the risk (aid, insurance) and by land-use planning (zoning).

46. Before the event Describe strategies designed to limit the damage from potential hazard events and disasters.

47. Short‑term, mid‑termand long‑termresponses after theevent Describe the range of responses, at the community, national and international levels, during and after a hazard event or disaster.

48. Examine the factors that affected the choice of adjustments before, and responses to, actual hazard events or disasters.

49. “Distinguish between rescue, rehabilitation and reconstruction responses”.

50. Rescue (short-term) – rescue people with rescue teams, sniffer dogs, thermal sensors. Rehabilitation (mid-term) - people being able to make safe their homes and live in them again. Reconstruction (long-term) – rebuilding.