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1. Open Source. x. In Support of All-Source Intelligence. SIGINT Imagery MASINT HUMINT Open Source Diplomatic Reporting. IMINT. OSINT. 2. How much value does each contribute?. Horizontally Integrated. All-Source Product. This viewgraph has been adjusted to be buzzword-compliant. 3.

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1

Open Source

x

In Support of All-Source Intelligence


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SIGINT

Imagery

MASINT

HUMINT

Open Source

Diplomatic Reporting

IMINT

OSINT

2

How much value does each contribute?

Horizontally Integrated

All-Source Product

This viewgraph has been adjusted to be buzzword-compliant


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3

“Citation” Method


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“Incremental/ Step-wise” Method

Average Added Value of “Successive” INTs


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Surprising? Conclusions

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  • Horizontal Integration across all the INTs produces diminishing returns

  • If open-source is the most cost-effective, then the best strategy for any INT is:

    • That INT plus open source …other things being equal

  • It is important, for a problem set, to understand the likely contribution of each INT

    • Analysts should (and probably do) prioritize their effort across the various INTs


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Why is Open-Source Under-Utilized ?

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  • Conservation of analyst-effort

    • Other INTs deliver products that are higher up the value chain

      • Not just raw collection, but

      • Analyzed and synthesized product, that is

      • Ready to cut and paste into an all-source product, while

      • “Open source” typically provides an Internet connection, or an unexpurgated, unevaluated, unqualified article

  • Suppose

    • Open source items arrived in form similar to other single-source reporting ?


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Testing the Hypothesis

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Finished Products

Annotated Collection

Raw Access

The experimental space

Increasing $$

Open-loop Req’ts driven


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Open Source …

… The “Rosetta Stone”

aka The “Horizontal Integrator”


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Some Simple Truths

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  • If an open-source specimen is related to, say, a SIGINT product and to an IMINT product, then:

    • That SIGINT and IMINT product are necessarily related (can horizontal integration be so simple?)

  • If a consumer has an interest in an open-source specimen, and if that open-source specimen is related to an INT product, then

    • That user has an interest in that INT product

  • There are no sources and methods issues with respect to open source


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11

VPN/PVN

2

3

Internet


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Intelink

2

3

SBU-net


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Open-Source Mediation, Cont’d

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  • Requirements by Example

    • “I am interested in this piece of open source, show me other intelligence products like it;” or,

    • “If you are interested in this piece of open source, can I show you other intelligence products like it?”

  • The Great Collaborator

    • “You and I are both interested in this piece of open-source … let’s talk”

    • “You two are interested in this piece of open source… why don’t you two talk?”


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Summary of the (unofficial) IC Open Source Investment Strategy


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Improve access to open sources and provide technology, training and infrastructure to integrate these sources efficiently into highest quality all-source intelligence.

Use open sources to inform clandestine and technical collection and to free up capacity in the more expensive, politically risky collection disciplines.

Capitalize on the consumer’s own access to open sources and the way these shape their policy and operational agendas.

IC Investment Goals for Open Source

15


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Large volumes of largely irrelevant information ("noise") and media which, like television, resist easy computer indexing, storage, and retrieval.

Highly localized foreign media, which often are in indigenous language.

The need to interact directly with open sources and to integrate them with clandestine and technical sources, which raises a security concern.

The legal imperative to protect the intellectual property of others.

Investment Challenges

16


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Investments in the sources themselves—i.e., collection or acquisition

Investments in the people—primarily training, including language training

Investments in technology—e.g., “data mining”

Investments in infrastructure—e.g., unclassified, private network access

Investments in Operations and Maintenance (O&M)

Investments in Tasking, Processing, Exploitation & Dissemination (TPED)

Investment Portfolio

17


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Increasing availability of open sources of interest to the Intelligence Community, much in indigenous language and much of it disorganized

Hard copy will remain important, but multi-media sources will increase in volume and importance

Dissemination will have to be a combination of “push” and “pull”

Commercial business models will serve the Intelligence Community well, and commercial technology will satisfy nearly all of its needs

Assumptions

18


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An Open Source Commercial Strategy Intelligence Community, much in indigenous language and much of it disorganized

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  • Procuring primary source materials

  • Procuring value-added products

  • Outsourcing

  • Adopting e-business practices in the Intelligence Community.


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Said fast, sounds easy Intelligence Community, much in indigenous language and much of it disorganized

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“To win the undying gratitude of analysts and intelligence consumers a dozen years hence, all we have to do is right-size the Open Source investment portfolio and remove the legal, technical and cultural impedimenta to best use of open sources. We must

  • Put a computing and communications infrastructure in place to support universal Community access to open sources in a way that supports their fusion into classified all-source analysis.

  • Negotiate affordable access to commercial data sources in a way that supports sharing across the intelligence enterprise without violating intellectual property rights.

  • Provide tools to process the low-grade ore and extract the nuggets


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21 Intelligence Community, much in indigenous language and much of it disorganized

Open Source

x

In Support of All-Source Intelligence