Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change for the Western U.S.
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Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change for the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington. Recession of the Muir Glacier. Aug, 13, 1941. Aug, 31, 2004.

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Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change for the Western U.S.

  • Alan F. Hamlet,

  • Philip W. Mote,

  • Dennis P. Lettenmaier

  • JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group

  • Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

  • University of Washington


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Recession of the Muir Glacier U.S.

Aug, 13, 1941

Aug, 31, 2004

Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia

http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_high_res.html


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Cool Season Climate of the Western U.S. U.S.

PNW

GB

CA

CRB

DJF Temp (°C)

NDJFM Precip (mm)


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Global Climate Change Scenarios U.S.

and Hydrologic Impacts for the PNW



Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

+3.2°C from IPCC AR4 GCMs

°C

+1.7°C

+0.7°C

1.2-5.5°C

0.9-2.4°C

Observed 20th century variability

0.4-1.0°C

Pacific Northwest


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

% from IPCC AR4 GCMs

-1 to +3%

+6%

+2%

+1%

Observed 20th century variability

-2 to +21%

-1 to +9%

Pacific Northwest


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Will Global Warming be “Warm and from IPCC AR4 GCMs

Wet” or “Warm and Dry”?

Answer: Probably BOTH!

Natural Flow Columbia River at The Dalles




The warmer locations are most sensitive to warming
The warmer locations are most sensitive to warming Model

2060s

+2.3C,

+6.8% winter precip


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Changes in Simulated April 1 Snowpack for the Canadian and U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin

(% change relative to current climate)

20th Century Climate

“2040s” (+1.7 C)

“2060s” (+ 2.25 C)

-3.6%

-11.5%

-21.4%

-34.8%

April 1 SWE (mm)


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997 U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin

Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Overall Trends in April 1 SWE from 1947-2003 U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin

DJF avg T (C)

Trend %/yr

Trend %/yr


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Temperature Related Trends in April 1 SWE from 1947-2003 U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin

DJF avg T (C)

Trend %/yr

Trend %/yr


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Precipitation Related Trends in April 1 SWE from 1947-2003 U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin

DJF avg T (C)

Trend %/yr

Trend %/yr


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming

  • Impacts:

  • Increased winter flow

  • Earlier and reduced peak flows

  • Reduced summer flow volume

  • Reduced late summer low flow


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Chehalis River River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Hoh River River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Nooksack River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming

River


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Mapping of Sensitive Areas in the PNW by Fraction of Precipitation Stored as Peak Snowpack

HUC 4 Scale Watersheds in the PNW


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Changes in Flood Risk in the Western U.S. Precipitation Stored as Peak Snowpack



Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Simulated Changes in the 20-year Flood Associated with 20 1916-2003th Century Warming

DJF Avg Temp (C)

X20 2003 / X20 1915

DJF Avg Temp (C)

X20 2003 / X20 1915

X20 2003 / X20 1915



Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

20-year Flood for “1973-2003” Compared to “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20th Century Temperature Regime

DJF Avg Temp (C)

X20 ’73-’03 / X20 ’16-’03

X20 ’73-’03 / X20 ’16-’03


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Effects of ENSO on Cool Season Climate in the PNW “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

Natural Flow Columbia River at The Dalles, OR

Red = warm ENSO, Green = ENSO neutral, Blue = cool ENSO


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

X “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20100 wENSO / X100 2003

X100 nENSO / X100 2003

X100 cENSO / X100 2003

DJF Avg Temp (C)

DJF Avg Temp (C)

DJF Avg Temp (C)

X100 wENSO / X100 2003

X100 nENSO / X100 2003

X100 cENSO / X100 2003


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Summary of Flooding Impacts “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

Rain Dominant Basins:

Possible increases in flooding due to increased precipitation variability, but no significant change from warming alone.

Mixed Rain and Snow Basins Along the Coast:

Strong increases due to warming and increased precipitation variability (both effects increase flood risk)

Inland Snowmelt Dominant Basins:

Relatively small overall changes because effects of warming (decreased risks) and increased precipitation variability (increased risks) are in the opposite directions.


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Landscape Scale “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

Ecosystem Impacts


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

9.0 “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

2005

8.0

7.0

2004

6.0

5.0

Annual area (ha × 106) affected by MPB in BC

2003

4.0

3.0

2.0

2002

1.0

2001

2000

1999

0

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2010

Year

Bark Beetle Outbreak in British Columbia

(Figure courtesy Allen Carroll)


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Temperature thresholds for coldwater fish in freshwater “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

  • Warming temperatures will increasingly stress coldwater fish in the warmest parts of our region

    • A monthly average temperature of 68ºF (20ºC) has been used as an upper limit for resident cold water fish habitat, and is known to stress Pacific salmon during periods of freshwater migration, spawning, and rearing

+2.3 °C

+1.7 °C


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Impact Pathways Associated with Climate “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

  • Changes in water quantity and timing

  • Reductions in summer flow and water supply

  • Increases in drought frequency and severity

  • Changes in hydrologic extremes

  • Changing flood risk (up or down)

  • Summer low flows

  • Changes in groundwater supplies

  • Changes in water quality

  • Increasing water temperature

  • Changes in sediment loading (up or down)

  • Changes in nutrient loadings (up or down)

  • Changes in land cover via disturbance

  • Forest fire

  • Insects

  • Disease

  • Invasive species

  • Changes in wildlife habitat and behavior

  • Food availability in mountain environments

  • Changes in migratory behavior


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Impact Pathways Associated with Climate “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

  • Changes in water management practice

  • Hydropower production (energy demand)

  • Flood control operations (changing flood risk and refill statistics)

  • Instream flow augmentation

  • Use of storage to control water temperature

  • Changes in Ecosystem Protection and Recovery Planning

  • Design of fish and wildlife recovery plans

  • Habitat restoration efforts

  • ESA listings (as a process)

  • Monitoring programs

  • Changes in outdoor recreation

  • Tourism

  • Skiing

  • Camping

  • Boating

  • Fishing

  • Hunting

  • ORV use


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

Approaches to Adaptation and Planning “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20

  • Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past.

  • Use scenario based planning to evaluate options rather than the historic record.

  • Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach.

  • Plan for the long haul. Where possible, make adaptive responses and agreements “self tending” to avoid repetitive costs of intervention as impacts increase over time.


Alan f hamlet philip w mote dennis p lettenmaier jisao cses climate impacts group

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20