Economic Outlook 2000-01 2000 Efficient Electro-Technology Conference September 7, 2000 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic Outlook 2000-01 2000 Efficient Electro-Technology Conference September 7, 2000
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Economic Outlook 2000-01 2000 Efficient Electro-Technology Conference September 7, 2000

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  1. Economic Outlook 2000-012000 Efficient Electro-Technology ConferenceSeptember 7, 2000

  2. Economic Outlook 2000-01 • 2000 Year to Date • Hawai‘i economic engine firing on all cylinders. • Alan Greenspan—carrier pilot or miracle worker? • 2000-01 Economic Outlook • US economy still leads world wide expansion. • Hawaii’s economic strength causes wage and price inflation. http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  3. 2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead Visitor Industry Strong State Wide http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  4. Honolulu County Visitor Statistics http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  5. Maui County Visitor Statistics http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  6. Hawai‘i County Visitor Statistics http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  7. Kauai County Visitor Statistics http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  8. 2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead Construction Sector is HOT • Real contracting expands-- fastest rate in 10 years • Single family home and condo resales strong • Average home prices rise on Oahu. • Permits growth signals continued strength http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  9. Honolulu County Construction Permits http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  10. Maui County Construction Permits http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  11. Hawai‘i County Construction Permits http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  12. Kauai County Construction Permits http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  13. Oahu Inventory Remaining Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  14. 2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead Job Growth Strongest in 10 years • Contracting and Oahu lead strong job growth • Employment growth continues to exceed job growth • Unemployment rate near US rate lower than CA http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  15. Total County Job Growth http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  16. Honolulu County Job Growth Returns http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  17. Maui County: Contracting Jobs Surge http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  18. Hawai‘i County: Contracting Booming http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  19. Kauai County: Growth in Retail & Hotels http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  20. County Unemployment Rates Decline http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  21. 2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead Expanding Economy Grows Real Tax Base • Retail & Hotel tax base grow with visitor industry • Wage income growing at over 6% • GE tax base expanding more rapidly than income http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  22. 2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead Income Growth and Prices • Nominal income grew by more than 4% in Q1 while wages grew by almost 9%. • Inflation returns as expected • Withholding Taxes increase more than 4% http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  23. 2000 Year to Date:Is the Landing Gear Down? • US Energizer Bunny expansion continues to set records 112 months and still going strong • Necessary ingredients for soft landing: • No mistakes by Fed! • Continued productivity growth • Slowing consumer demand (aka less than 20% annual return on Nasdaq!) • Some easing of labor markets http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  24. 2000 Year to Date:Is the Landing Gear Down? Soft landing pluses • CPI inflation only 3.5% through July. • Productivity up 5.1% over past year—biggest annual gain in 17 years. • July housing starts declined to 1.51 million annual rate lowest level since Nov. 1997. • US unemployment rate inched up in August to 4.1% • NAPM index declined in August—factory orders posted largest decline ever in July, falling 7.5%. • Index of leading economic indicators down for third straight month in July. • Sales of existing homes fell 9.8% in July (higher mortgage rates). http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  25. 2000 Year to Date:Is the Landing Gear Down? Soft landing minuses • CPI inflation 3.5% through July. • Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 5.3% in 2nd Qtr. • Industrial production is up 5.8% over last year through June. • New orders for durable goods up 9.9% over last year. • Sales of new homes jumped 15% in July, the largest increase in more than 7 years. http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  26. 2000-01 OutlookUS still Leads World Economic Growth http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  27. 2000-01 NASDAQ Growth Forecast http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  28. 2000-01 Outlook:All Sectors Contribute to Growth • Visitor growth expected near 5 % • Real contracting will expand at near 15 % rate • Job and employment growth continue at 2-3% • Real income to grow over 3% • Inflation will accelerate to 2.3% rate and beyond with rising rents. http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  29. Visitor Arrivals Growth to Remain Strong http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  30. Expected Contracting Growth Strongest in 10 years http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  31. Labor Market Firm—Shortages? http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  32. Real Income Growth Strengthens http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  33. Honolulu Inflation Catches US Rate http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  34. 2000-01 Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO