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Charts Monetary Policy Report 2/08

Charts Monetary Policy Report 2/08. 1 Monetary policy assessments and strategy. Chart 1.1 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 – May 2008. 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Source: Statistics Norway.

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Charts Monetary Policy Report 2/08

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  1. Charts Monetary Policy Report 2/08

  2. 1 Monetary policy assessments and strategy

  3. Chart 1.1 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 – May 2008 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Source: Statistics Norway

  4. Chart 1.2 CPI-ATE.1) Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 – May 2008 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 2) Norges Bank’s estimates. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  5. Chart 1.3 Average prices for crude oil and natural gas. 2000 Q1 – 2008 Q21) 1) For 2008 Q2 the average of daily figures 1 April 2008 to 20 June 2008 is used. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  6. Chart 1.4 Registered unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 1980 – May 2008 Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV)

  7. Chart 1.5 Difference between 3-month money market rate and key policy rate expectations in the market1). Percentage points. Historical (from 1 June 2007) and ahead (at 20 June 2008) 1) The expected key rate is derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) interest rates. For Norway, the estimates are based on key policy rate expectations in the market. Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  8. Chart 1.6 Key policy rate, money market rate1) and banks’ lending rate on new loans2). Per cent. 3 May 2007 – 20 June 2008 1) 3-month NIBOR (effective). 2) Interest rate on new mortgage loans for NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with floating interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share. Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS and Norges Bank

  9. Chart 1.7 Policy rates and estimated forward rates on 10 March and 20 June.1) Per cent. 1 June 2007 – 31 December 2011 1) Dotted lines show forward rates at 10 March 2008. Broken lines show forward rates at 20 June 2008. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) interest rates. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  10. Chart 1.8 Exchange rates.1) The import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44), 1995 = 100, NOK/EUR and NOK/USD. Week 1 2002 – Week 25 2008 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. Source: Norges Bank

  11. Chart 1.9 Inflation. Moving 10-year average1) and variation2) in CPI. Per cent. 1980 – 20083) Variation CPI Inflation target 1) The moving average is calculated 7 years back and 2 years ahead. 2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation. 3) Projections for 2008 - 2010 from this Report form the basis for this estimate. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Chart 1.10 Differential between long-term forward interest rates in Norway and the euro area.1) Percentage points. 1 January 2002 – 20 June 2008 1) 5-year forward rates 5 years ahead. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  13. Chart 1.11 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.1) Per cent. 2002 Q2 – 2008 Q2 1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and experts (financial industry employees, macro analysts and academics). Source: TNS Gallup

  14. Chart 1.12 3-month real interest rate1), real key policy interest rate1), 10-year real interest rate2) and the normal real interest rate in Norway3). Per cent. 1996 Q1 – 2008 Q24) Interval for normal real interest rate 1) Deflated by the 12-quarter moving average (centred) of inflation measured by the CPI. Projections for the CPI from this Report form the basis for this estimate. 2) 10-year swap rate deflated by the inflation target. 3) Calculations may indicate that the normal real interest rate for Norway is currently in the lower end of the interval 2½ - 3½%. 4)For 2008 Q2 the average of daily figures 1 April 2008 to 20 June 2008 is used. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Chart 1.13 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 – May 2008 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices (see box on page 54). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Chart 1.14 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean 1970 – 2007. Per cent. 1970 – 20081) 1) Data for 2008 based on observations to 20 June. Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

  17. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.15a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Per cent. 2006 Q1– 2011 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

  18. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.15b Estimated output gap in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  19. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.15c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart. 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  20. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.15d Projected CPIXE1) in the baseline scenario with fan chart. 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  21. Chart 1.16 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/07, MPR 1/08 and MPR 2/08. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

  22. Chart 1.17 Key policy rate and 3-month money market rate1) in the baseline scenario. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) Projected key policy rate including projected risk premium in the 3-month money market rate. Source: Norges Bank

  23. Chart 1.18 Projected inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  24. Chart 1.19 Key policy rate, Taylor rule, growth rule and rule with external interest rates.1) Per cent. 2007 Q1 – 2008 Q4 1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank’s projections for the output gap, consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices (CPIXE) and 3-month money market rate. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate the simple rules are adjusted for the risk premium in the 3-month money market rate. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  25. Chart 1.20 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.1) Per cent. 2000 Q1 – 2008 Q2 Interest rate movements that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern with a 90% confidence interval (blue area) Key policy rate 1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and 3-month interest rates among trading partners. See Staff Memo2008/03 for further discussion. Source: Norges Bank

  26. Chart 1.21 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates1). Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. A credit risk premium has been deducted when calculating the forward rates to ensure comparability with the key policy rate. The blue interval shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 9 June - 20 June 2008. Source: Norges Bank

  27. Chart 1.22 Projected differential between money market rates in Norway and among trading partners in MPR 1/08 and MPR 2/08.1) Per cent. 2008 Q2 – 2011 Q4 1) Differential between money market rate in baseline scenario and weighted average of trading partners’ forward rates in the period 9 June - 20 June 2008. Source: Norges Bank

  28. Chart 1.23 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/08 and MPR 2/08.1) Index. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. The exchange rate path is based on uncovered interest rate parity. Source: Norges Bank

  29. Chart 1.24 Projected CPI, CPI-ATE1) and CPIXE2) in the baseline scenario. 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  30. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.25a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternatives with higher and lower inflation. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

  31. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.25b The output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternatives with higher and lower inflation. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  32. 90% 70% 50% 30% Chart 1.25c CPIXE1) in the baseline scenario and in the alternatives with higher and lower inflation. 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  33. Chart 1 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period and actual developments.1) Per cent. 2 January 2004 – 25 June 2008 1/08 3/07 2/07 1/07 3/06 Strategy period 2/06 1/06 3/03 3/05 2/05 1/04 1/05 2/04 3/04 Key policy rate 1) The Executive Board’s decision of 25 June is not shown in the chart (see Table on page 75). Source: Norges Bank

  34. 2 The global economy, financial markets and commodity markets

  35. Chart 2.1 Consumer prices in industrial countries. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2000 – May 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters

  36. Chart 2.2 Consumer prices in BRIC countries1). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2000 – May 2008 1) Brazil, Russia, India and China. Source: Thomson Reuters

  37. Chart 2.3 Producer and wholesale prices in BRIC countries1). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2000 – May 2008 1) Brazil, Russia, India and China. Source: Thomson Reuters

  38. Chart 2.4 Expected real interest rate1) one year ahead in the US and the euro area. 10-day moving average. Per cent. 1 January 2007 – 20 June 2008 1) One-year maturity. The real interest rate is derived from nominal swap rates and inflation swaps. Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  39. Chart 2.5 Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD, EUR, NOK and SDR. Monthly figures. January 2000 – May 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters

  40. Chart 2.6 OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity. Million barrels per day. 1997- 20091) 1) Forecast for 2008 and 2009. Source: Energy Information Administration

  41. Chart 2.7 Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel. Daily figures. 3 January 2000 – 20 June 2008. Futures prices. 10 March 2008 and 20 June 2008 (broken lines). April 2008 – December 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  42. Chart 2.8 Oil price (Brent Blend) and average export price for Norwegian natural gas1). The oil price has been moved back 2 quarters. 1981 Q1 – 2008 Q1 1) Gas prices from 1981 Q1 to 2007 Q1 were obtained from SN. Gas prices from 2007 Q2 were obtained from StatoilHydro’s quarterly accounts. Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters, StatoilHydro and Norges Bank

  43. Chart 2.9 Average prices for crude oil and natural gas. Quarterly figures. 2000 Q1 – 2008 Q21) 1) For 2008 Q2 the average of daily figures 1 April – 20 June 2008 is used for Brent Blend and UK gas. For Russian gas the monthly figures for April and May are used for 2008 Q2. Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters, StatoilHydro, IMF and Norges Bank

  44. Chart 2.10 International commodity prices in USD. Index, 2000 = 100. Week 1 2000 – week 25 2008 Sources: Thomson Reuters and The Economist

  45. Chart 2.11 Metal prices in USD. Index, 4 January 2000 = 100. 4 January 2000 – 20 June 2008. Futures prices from 20 June 2008 (broken lines). August 2008 – October 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

  46. Chart 2.12 Food commodity prices in USD. Index, 4 January 2000 = 100. 4 January 2000 – 20 June 2008. Futures prices from 20 June 2008 (broken lines). September 2008 – December 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters, Chicago Board of Trade, The Intercontinental Exchange and Norges Bank

  47. Chart 2.13 Freight rates. Index based on rates in USD. Tank: World Scale MidEast-West. Dry bulk: Baltic Dry Index. 4 January 2000 – 20 June 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters

  48. Chart 2.14 Developments in equity markets. Index, 1 January 2007 = 100. 1 January 2007 – 20 June 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters

  49. Chart 2.15 Spread between money market rates with different maturities and expected key policy rate1). Average for the US, the euro area and the UK. Percentage points. 5-day moving average. 1 June 2007 – 20 June 2008 1) The expected key policy rate is derived from the Overnight Index Swap (OIS). Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  50. Chart 2.16 Developments in the tomorrow/next rate and the key policy rate. Percentage points. 2 January 2008 – 20 June 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters

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