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RMATS Economics Reference Cases Economic Comparisons Distribution of Economic Gains and Losses

RMATS Economics Reference Cases Economic Comparisons Distribution of Economic Gains and Losses. RMATS Steering Committee August 5, 2004. Overview. Finalize IRP-based reference case Modeling issues with excessive cycling – distorts distribution of gains and losses

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RMATS Economics Reference Cases Economic Comparisons Distribution of Economic Gains and Losses

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  1. RMATS Economics Reference Cases Economic Comparisons Distribution of Economic Gains and Losses RMATS Steering Committee August 5, 2004

  2. Overview • Finalize IRP-based reference case • Modeling issues with excessive cycling – distorts distribution of gains and losses • Three solutions considered: • Reduce wind dispatch • Relocate Wyoming wind resources • Medium build transmission • Finalize economic comparisons • Revised reference cases: IRP-based and All-gas • Original reference case now gone • Finalize distribution of economic gains & losses RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  3. Finalized IRP Reference Case

  4. IRP–based Reference CaseThe problem: excessive cycling of JB & Naughton coal resources Solutions to prevent plant cycling in ABB Market Simulator: • Reduce wind output - recommended • Relocate wind – but this deviates from IRPs, and requires additional analysis on transmission to integrate wind • Add transmission – but this is uneconomic if only for wind Bridger cycling 12% of time Naughton cycling 9% of time 91.1% CF 92.2% CF (MAX) 88.8% CF 89.9% CF (MAX) RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  5. Wind Reduction at Miners (SW Wyoming)To minimize excessive cycling on thermal units Capacity factor change from 38.7% to 25.9% • Modifications: • No more than 100MW from 1/1/2013 – 3/1/2013 • No restrictions from 3/1/2013 - 6/24/2013 • No more than 100MW from 6/24/2013 - 9/15/2013 • No restrictions from 9/15/2013 – 11/15/2013 • No more than 300MW from 11/15/2013 – 12/31/2013 Full wind output is equal to Blue + Yellow RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  6. Wind Reduction at Railroad (N. Utah)To minimize excessive cycling on thermal units Capacity factor change from 33% to 22.5% • Modifications: • Reduce wind output by 200MW from 6/15/2013 – 10/15/2013 Full wind output is equal to Blue + Pink RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  7. Cycling results in the modelingExcessive cycling is greatly reduced by suppressing wind dispatch Bridger cycling 3.5% of time Naughton cycling 1% of time 92.1% CF 92.2% CF (MAX) 89.8% CF 89.9% CF (MAX) RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  8. Coal - Wind Integration RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  9. System Cost Changes RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  10. Distribution of Economic Gains & LossesIRP-based reference case Before: After: RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  11. Economics

  12. Recommendation 1 Transmission Projects Montana to NW Taft Modified Interface West of Broadview 280 Wind Townsend West of Colstrip Montana Upgrades Broadview Garrison Added Resource 50 Wind Colstrip 250 Coal Added 345 kV Line 359 Coal Added Series Compensation Only 250 Wind Borah West 125 Wind Midpoint 700 Coal Antelope Mine Path C Black Hills to C. Wyoming West of Bridger Bridger Expansion Dave Johnston Treasureton 575 Coal C Wyoming to LRS Bridger E LRS 100 Wind Jim Bridger Miners 500 Wind Ben Lomond Naughton West of Naughton Cheyenne Tap 1150 Wind TOT 4A TOT 3 New WY- CO lines Ault 575 Coal TOT 7 Green Valley 140 Gas 210 Gas 500 Coal 500 Wind RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  13. Economics Comparison Table RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  14. Production Cost (VOM)Comparison Alt 1- “light” Tx build All Gas Reference Case Original Reference Case RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  15. Distribution of Economic Gains & Losses Recommendation 1 vs IRP-Based Reference Case Recommendation 1 vs All-Gas Reference Case Load Cost is hourly demand (MWh) at each load node x hourly LMP ($), summed for 2013 Generator Gross Margin is hourly generation (MWh) at generation node x hourly LMP, summed for 2013 (generator revenue), less annual fuel & other VOM costs RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  16. Distribution of Economic Gains & Losses $ Millions RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  17. Economic Gains & LossesRecommendation 1 vs IRP- Based Case RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  18. Economic Gains & LossesRecommendation 1 vs All Gas Case RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  19. Recommendation 2Longer-term export options Bell Noxon Great Falls Taft Ashe Hot Springs Broadview Colstrip Missoula Ringling Grizzly This recommendation requires two 500 kV lines for export Midpoint 500 kV Kinport Ant Mine 345 kV Dave Johnson Option 1 Borah Jim Bridger LRS Inc. DC Ben Lomond Naughton Miners Consistent with Rec 1 Table Mtn. Cheyenne Tap IPP Mona Ault Option 2 Emery Green Valley Grand Junction Tesla Red Butte Crystal Option 3 Added Phase Shifter Market Place Adelanto Options 2-4 Option 4 Option 1 Only RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

  20. Distribution of Economic Gains & Losses Recommendation 2 vs IRP-Based Reference Case Recommendation 2 vs All-Gas Reference Case Load Cost is hourly demand (MWh) at each load node x hourly LMP ($), summed for 2013 Generator Gross Margin is hourly generation (MWh) at generation node x hourly LMP, summed for 2013 (generator revenue), less annual fuel & other VOM costs RMATS Economics (08/06/04)

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