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Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream. Philip Wolfe. Taking a different path. Achieving quantum change – the politics Vision to delivery – targets and directives Leadership or drift – UK energy policy Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios

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renewable energy yesterday s alternative tomorrow s mainstream

Renewable EnergyYesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream

Philip Wolfe

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

taking a different path
Taking a different path
  • Achieving quantum change – the politics
  • Vision to delivery – targets and directives
  • Leadership or drift – UK energy policy
  • Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios
  • Brave new world – renewable hotspots

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

achieving quantum change the politics
Achieving quantum change – the politics

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

key drivers for energy policy
Key drivers for energy policy
  • Energy security
  • Environment – climate change
  • Economics – energy prices

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

energy security fossil fuel availability
Energy securityFossil fuel availability

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

environment climate change trends
EnvironmentClimate change trends

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

there s still time
There’s still time

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

economics stern report for hm treasury
EconomicsStern report for HM Treasury
  • Stabilisation is essential and affordable
  • Global emissions need to be >25% below current levels in 2050 for <550ppm CO2eq
  • This will cost 1% of GDP p.a.
  • 75% less emissions per unit GDP in 2050
  • Doing nothing could be equivalent to a 20% reduction in consumption

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

say that again
Say that again
  • Doing nothing costs 5 to 20%
  • Solving the problem costs 1%

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

vision to delivery
Vision to delivery –

targets and directives

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

the energy hierarchy
The Energy Hierarchy

Sustainable

energy production

Non-sustainable

energy production

Energy saving

So what is ‘alternative’ energy?

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

the eu commitments for 2020
The EU commitments for 2020
  • Emissions reductions Binding
    • 20% unilateral, or
    • 30% if multilateral
  • Energy conservation Non-binding
    • 20% below current projections
  • Renewables Binding
    • 20% of total energy
    • 10% of transport fuels

A lot of 20%’s

total energy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

20 renewables eu vision
20% Renewables – EU vision

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

german policy

0 Introduction

  • 1 Combined heat-and-power generation
  • 2 Expansion of renewable energies in the power sector
  • 3 CCS technologies
  • 4 Smart metering
  • 5 Clean power-station technologies
  • 6 Introduction of modern energy management systems
  • 7 Support programmes for climate protection and energy efficiency
  • 8 Energy-efficient products
  • 9 Provisions on the feed-in of biogas to natural gas grids
  • 10 Energy Saving Ordinance
  • 11 Operating costs of rental accommodation
  • 12 Modernisation programme to reduce CO2 emissions from buildings
  • 13 Energy-efficient modernisation of social infrastructure
  • 14 Renewable Energies Heat Act
  • 15 Programme for the energy-efficient modernisation of federal buildings
  • 16 CO2 strategy for passenger cars
  • 17 Expansion of the biofuels market
  • 18 Reform of vehicle tax on CO2 basis
  • 19 Energy labelling of passenger cars
  • 20 Reinforcing the influence of the HGV toll
  • 21 Aviation
  • 22 Shipping
  • 23 Reduction of emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases
  • 24 Procurement of energy-efficient products and services
  • 25 Energy research and innovation
  • 26 Electric mobility
  • 27 International projects on climate protection and energy efficiency
  • 28 Reporting on energy and climate policy by German embassies and consulates
  • 29 Transatlantic climate and technology initiative
German policy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

leadership or drift uk energy policy
Leadership or drift – UK energy policy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

existing uk policies
Existing UK policies

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

existing policies measures and assumptions merchant power
Existing policies, measures and assumptionsMerchant power
  • RO1 achieves ~15% of electricity
    • Banding achieves diversity
    • Doesn’t harm onshore wind (not ‘net neutral’)
  • Planning & grid restrictions overcome
    • All energy planning to IPC2
    • “Connect & manage” grid access
    • Beauly-Denny transmission upgrade
    • Renewable (electricity) Obligation
    • Infrastructure Planning Commission

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

existing policies measures and assumptions transport fuels
Existing policies, measures and assumptionsTransport fuels
  • RTFO3 introduced and effective
    • Buy-out price that ensures quotas are met
    • Sustainability reporting is appropriate
    • UK market is as attractive as others
  • Bio-fuel duty rebates remain in interim

3Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

existing policies measures and assumptions onsite energy
Existing policies, measures and assumptionsOnsite energy
  • Zero carbon new homes from 2016
    • Building regs: CSH4 level 6 from 2016
  • CERT5 effective for ‘micro-renewables’
    • Appropriate multipliers for renewables
  • Positive planning
    • Extend ‘Merton Rule’6 nationwide
  • Encourage renewables in existing houses
    • Energy certificates in home info packs
    • Code for Sustainable Homes – Level 6 is ‘zero carbon’
    • Carbon Emission Reduction Target (formerly EEC)
    • Larger developments require [10%] renewable energy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

energy white paper
Energy White Paper

“The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal …

by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption …

we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

routemap to 2020 new measures needed
Routemap to 2020 New measures needed

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

changing the paradigm 2020 scenarios
Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

first cut energy consumption
First: Cut energy consumption
  • Energy conservation measures
  • More efficient energy usage
    • Regulate against inefficient products
    • Regulate against parasitic loads
  • More efficient energy generation
    • Limit generating stations’ waste energy
  • UK consumption in 2020 same as now

as a rough working assumption

Next: More renewables …

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

policies measures and proposals enhanced plans merchant power
Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – merchant power
  • Increased RO1 objective ~22% in 2020
    • Set 25% quota and increase headroom
    • Retain buyout link to retail price index
    • Offshore super-grid?
  • Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro?
  • Incentives for large scale CHP7
    • Large thermal generators must use heat
    • Renewable Heat (or Gas?) Obligation
  • Measures to deliver biomass strategy
    • Renewable (electricity) Obligation

7 Combined heat and power

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

policies measures and proposals enhanced plans transport fuels
Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – transport fuels
  • Higher RTFO3 quotas – 13% (by volume) in 2020
      • RTFO linked to sustainability measures
  • Availability of high blend fuels
      • Pumps on every large forecourt
      • Fuel duty rebate within Alternative Fuels Framework
  • Second generation bio-fuels
  • Incentives for high blend and flex-fuel vehicles
      • Lower vehicle excise duty
      • Tax breaks for company cars
      • Congestion charge exemptions

3 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

policies measures and proposals enhanced plans onsite domestic
Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – onsite domestic
  • Building regulations for new homes
    • CSH4 level 4 from 2010, level 5 from 2013
  • Smart metering roll-out programme
  • Retrofit programme for existing houses
    • 100,000 rising to 1,000,000 per annum
      • Owner occupiers and private landlords:
        • Feed-in tariffs for electricity; similar for heat
        • Stamp duty breaks, council tax concessions
        • Financing measures, mortgages and loans
      • Social rented and fuel poor:
        • Through local authorities and housing associations
    • Code for Sustainable Homes – Level 5 is ‘low carbon’

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

policies measures and proposals enhanced plans non residential
Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – non-residential
  • A new Code for Sustainable Buildings
    • Equivalent to CSH4 – and in Building Regs
  • Heat networks in new developments
    • Regulatory system for heat networks
  • Positive planning
    • Progressively rising ‘Merton Rule’6 %s
  • Renewables in agriculture
    • Anaerobic digestion on 000’s of farms
    • Code for Sustainable Homes

6 Larger developments require [10%] renewable energy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

routemap to 2020 enhanced energy policy
Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

20 renewables in eu
20% Renewables – in EU

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

20 renewables in uk where it might be
20% Renewables – in UKWhere it might be

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

20 renewables in uk what it might be
20% Renewables – in UKWhat it might be

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

renewables in total energy
Renewables in total energy

Today

2020

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

who pays
Who pays?
  • The consumer pays (indirectly) for:
      • Obligations > Feed-in tariffs
      • Building Regulations (land-owner pays?)
    • Energy prices will rise
  • The taxpayer (via the Treasury) pays for:
      • Retrofit programme through local authorities
      • Fiscal incentives
    • Sources of funds:
      • NFFO7 surplus (and obligations buy-out funds?)
      • Auction of EU-ETS8 carbon allowances

7 The RO gets a surplus from Non-Fossil Fuel Order projects

8 Emission allocations in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

polluter

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

how much
How much?

Sir Nicholas Stern:

  • Worldwide incentives now $34bn p.a.
  • This should

increase by:

2x to 5x

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

brave new world renewable hotspots
Brave new world – renewable hotspots

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

elemental conversion technologies
Elemental conversion technologies
  • New approaches in established technologies
      • Offshore wind
      • Tidal barrages and lagoons
      • Building-integrated PV and solar thermal
  • Higher volumes and efficiencies
      • Heat pumps
      • Micro-hydro
  • Emerging renewable technologies
      • Tidal stream energy
      • Wave energy conversion

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

bio energy conversion technologies
Bio-energy conversion technologies
  • New approaches in established technologies
      • Sustainable biofuels
      • Bio-methane for the gas grid
  • Higher volumes and efficiencies
      • Biomass boilers and CHP
      • Anaerobic digestion
  • Emerging renewable technologies
      • Second generation biofuels
      • Microbial energy

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

more decentralised energy system
More decentralised energy system
  • Heat networks
  • Intelligent distribution systems
  • Smart metering
      • Improved user interfaces
      • Real-time pricing
  • Active load management
      • Non-traditional storage options

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

new energy integration options
New energy integration options
  • ‘On-site’ energy systems
      • Intelligent user interfaces
      • Small-scale CHP / fuel cells
  • ‘In-store’ energy systems
      • Renewable cooling
  • ‘On-farm’ energy systems

Everyone is in the energy business

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

some conclusions
Some conclusions
  • On renewables:

Never call it ‘alternative energy’

  • On the fossil fuel age:

The Stone Age didn’t end because

they ran out of stones

  • On those who say:

“There’s still time”

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

renewable energy yesterday s alternative tomorrow s mainstream41

Renewable EnergyYesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream

Philip Wolfe

Renewable Energy Association

www.r-e-a.net

ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007