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Simulation of European emissions impacts on particulate matter concentrations in 2010 using Models-3. Rob Lennard, Steve Griffiths and Paul Sutton (RWE npower) Power Technology, Environmental Compliance Group. Overview of presentation. Background to study

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Simulation of European emissions impacts on particulate matter concentrations in 2010 using Models-3

Rob Lennard, Steve Griffiths and Paul Sutton (RWE npower)

Power Technology, Environmental Compliance Group

overview of presentation
Overview of presentation
  • Background to study
  • Air quality legislation covering particulate matter (PM) and issues for
  • electricity generation sector
  • Models-3 and treatment of PM
  • Overview of modelled scenario
  • Results - compliance with guidelines

sector by sector impacts

primary versus secondary particulate impacts

implications of a population exposure approach

background to study
Background to study
  • Power Technology work on behalf of UK power generator’s Joint Environmental Programme (the JEP)
  • Eight companies – cover majority of the UK coal and oil-fired generation
  • Investigate environmental issues of relevance to the power industry
  • Air quality, acid deposition, particulate matter formation
  • Selected Models-3 in 1999 to address regional scale issues
particulate matter pm and human health impacts
Particulate matter (PM) and human health impacts
  • Mounting evidence for association between exposure to PM and

adverse health impacts

    • Fine particulates (PM2.5) believed to be primarily responsible
    • Lack of evidence for a threshold for harmful effects
    • Based on current understanding, World Health Organisation (WHO) has updated its air quality guidelines (AQG) (October 2006)
    • For the first time, WHO has recommended guidelines for PM2.5
    • Updated guidelines for PM have been proposed for Europe and the UK
updates to pm guidelines
Updates to PM guidelines
  • WHO Air Quality Guidelines Global Update
    • PM2.510 µgm-3 annual mean and 25 µgm-3 24-hour mean
  • New EU air quality Directive(current understanding - currently being debated)

PM1030 µgm-3 annual mean

PM2.525 µgm-3 annual mean (binding from 2010)

PM2.5Up to 20% reduction in urban background annual mean

  • UK Air Quality Strategy – updates proposed by Defra:

PM10 Retain standards???

PM2.525 µgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5

PM2.5 15% exposure reduction target for annual mean PM2.5

important issues for the jep
Important issues for the JEP
  • Power stations contribute to PM concentrations:
      • ~9% of UK primary emissions (EMEP Webdab)
      • Secondary - emissions of precursor gases SO2 (70%) and NOx (20%)
  • Uncertainty regarding fraction responsible for adverse health effects
      • Toxicology studies suggest primary combustion particles have

high toxic potency

      • Other components are thought to have a lower toxic potency

e.g. ammonium salts, chlorides, sulphates, nitrates

  • Need to understand the effect of our emissions on primary and secondary PM2.5 concentrations
models 3 cmaq
Models-3/CMAQ
  • 3-D gridded Eulerian model
  • Set up to run on three nested grids

(54, 18, and 6km resolution)

  • 21 vertical layers (15km)
  • Requires hourly gridded emissions and meteorology
  • Plus land-use, initial conditions, boundary conditions
  • Chemical Scheme: RADM2+aerosols+aqueous chemistry
modelling particulate in models 3
Modelling Particulate in Models-3
  • Based on USEPA particulate model / Regional Acid Deposition Model
  • Time-dependent size distribution & size specific chemical composition
  • Modal approach – Coarse, accumulation & nucleation
  • Described by particle number concentration, total surface area & total mass
  • Species
    • Sulphate, Nitrate, Ammonium
    • Elemental Carbon
    • Primary organic species
    • Anthropogenic secondary organic species
    • Biogenic secondary species
    • Unspecified anthropogenic species
    • Can also include aerosol water
modelling study
Modelling study
  • Compared contributions of 7 sectors to ground-level PM concentrations
  • Model run for an entire year, month-by-month basis, 1999 met data
  • Anthropogenic emissions scenario for the year 2010

– data from EMEP WebDab Expert Emissions Database (emep.webdab.int)

  • Emissions data were available for all major pollutants

(SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and NMVOC).

  • Temporal profiles applied using smoke.

- energy sector data provided by JEP companies

  • Emissions from SNAP categories 1, 3 and 4 assigned to point sources

(based on assumptions from National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory)

sectors for which impacts have been assessed
Sectors for which impacts have been assessed
  • Ground-level PM concentrations due to 7 different sectors compared
  • Eight model runs performed in total
  • Sectors:
  • Agriculture
  • Energy
  • Industry – SNAP cats 3,4,5,6,9
  • Natural
  • Residential
  • Shipping
  • Transport – SNAP cats 7,8
  • Ground-level concentration output:
  • Total PM10
  • Primary PM10
  • Secondary
  • Total PM2.5
  • Primary PM2.5
models 3 pm simulation validation comparison with measured data 24 hour averages
Models-3 PM simulation validationComparison with measured data – 24 hour averages

January 1999 July 1999

exposure approach population data
Exposure approach – population data
  • Based on Gridded Population of the World (GPW) dataset, available from Centre for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) website
  • Projected to Lambert Conformal Projection appropriate for Models-3
  • Population density in persons per km2
population exposure
Population exposure

Population exposure to secondary PM2.5 (person.μgm-3km-2)

Agriculture

Energy

Residential

population exposure1
Population exposure

Population exposure to primary PM2.5 (person.μgm-3km-2)

Agriculture

Energy

Residential

conclusions
Conclusions
  • No exceedances of 40 μgm-3 annual mean for PM10 predicted in 2010
  • Exceedances of 25 μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5 in two locations only
  • Secondary particulates dominate all source PM concentrations
  • Emissions from agriculture dominate secondary concentrations
  • Primary concentrations dominated by emissions from transport,
    • residential and industrial sectors
    • Given current evidence for adverse health effects, greatest benefits expected for
    • emissions reductions in these sectors
    • Energy sector contributions to concentrations due to all anthro sources are
    • relatively low ( 11.2% to total PM2.5, 11.9% to secondary and 6.4% to primary)
    • Population exposure approach places even greater emphasis on transport and
    • residential emissions since air quality impacts high in densely populated areas