Biogeochemical modelling at BSH

1. Biogeochemical modelling at BSH Frank Janssen, Larissa Müller & Stephan Dick

2. Daily forecasts: focus on features of public interest HABs oxygen depletion areas impact of river floods ... or whatever might be of public interest ... Hindcast/scenario simulations: provide information for HELCOM OSPAR Governmental agencies/decision makers, e.g. for Marine Strategy Framework Directive,... ... What is it good for? WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

3. What are we aiming at? • We are going for an • operational • biogeochemical • model for the North Sea/Baltic Sea region WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

4. How do we (try to) do it? • Stepwise Development: • Circulation model/Dispersion model • SPM module • biogeochemical module • data assimilation • physics (T/S) • biochemistry (Chl-a, light, nutrients) WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

5. Meteorological Models (GME + COSMO-EU) forecasts up to 84 hours Wave Model (WAM) forecasts up to 84 hrs external surge, tidal constituents, river runoff wind, air pressure, air temperature, cloud coverage, specific humidity Operational model system at BSH Other forcing data: tidal predictions, external surges (BSHsmod.na), river input (BfG, SMHI) wave data wave data Circulation + Wave Model (BSHcmod.w) for North Sea and Baltic Sea ( 3dim., 5km) Surge Model (BSHsmod) for North Sea (2dim., 5km, barotropic) Circulation Model (BSHcmod) for North Sea and Baltic Sea ( 3dim., 5km + 900m grid) Model data archive: currents, water levels, eddy coefficients, salinity, temperature, ice data, wave data, meteo. data surge data Lagrangian Drift and Dispersion Model (BSHdmod.L) for oil, drifting objects and conservative substances Eulerian Dispersion (BSHdmod.E) for conservative substances, suspended matter and biogeochemistry Local Circulation Models for estuaries (Elbe, Weser, Ems)

6. Operational BSH Model, Version 4 Grid nesting:- 10 km grid- 5 km grid-900 m grid WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

7. Cyanobacteria 2006/08/19 Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC BSHcmod V4 Surface salinity900 m grideddy formation06-09. April 2008 WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

8. < u* < u* < < u* < < u* < SPM model (Pleskachevski, Gayer) • 3 SPM-fractions with different sinking velocities • 4 sediment layers (20 cm) • friction velocity u* • depending on : • currents • waves Transport Mixing Sinken Sedimentation Resuspension Erosion sedimentation and erosion caused by friction velocity Bioturbation u*sed u*res u*ero 0 u* hero resuspension erosion equilibrium sedimentation Diffusion Sand SPM

9. BSH Eulerian transport model with SPM module of GKSS* Prä-operationeller Modellbetrieb • Hindcast (5 km grid): • Computed SPM concentration • at surface on 13.04.2006 • * Gayer et al., 2006 • seit 2003 • Berechnete Schwebstoffverteilung am 03.01.2005 • NOAA N-16 K1-K2 WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

10. Biogeochemical module • Choose a general interface: GOTM-BIO • Start with „North Sea model“ • coupling of BSHdmod.E + ECOHAM4 (IfM-HH) • PhD thesis Larissa Müller, finished in 2007 • Implementation of „Baltic Sea“ model • coupling of BSHdmod.E + ERGOM (IOW) • Testing both models (and other models, e.g. BFM) • Combined solution for both regions GOTM: General Ocean Turbulence Model www.gotm.net WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

11. Results from BSH biogeochemical model: North Sea • Calculation based on: • BSHdmod.e • GOTM-BIO (ECOHAM4 modul) • two nested grids (3nm, 0.5 nm) • pre-operational since 01/2009 http://behemoth.nerc-essc.ac.uk/ncWMS/ecoop.html WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

12. Simulated Chl-a from ECOHAM4 WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

13. Results from BSH biogeochemical model: Baltic Sea • Calculation based on: • BSHdmod.e • GOTM-BIO (ERGOM modul) • two nested grids (3nm, 0.5 nm) • pre-operational since 01/2009 http://behemoth.nerc-essc.ac.uk/ncWMS/ecoop.html WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

14. Simulated Chl-a from ERGOM WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

15. Data assimilation • In co-operation with AWI, DeMarine project • PDAF*) filter framework developed at AWI • Implementation of (local) SEIK filter • SST data from NOAA satellite processed at BSH *) Parallel Data Assimilation Framework http://www.awi.de/de/forschung/wissenschaftliches_rechnen/forschungsthemen_wissenschaftliches_rechnen/sequential_data_assimilation/pdaf_parallel_data_assimilation_framework/ WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

16. Stddev of Baltic Sea SST differences WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

17. Application example: Assimilation of Satellite Chlorophyll data into a Global Ocean-Biogeochemical model • Model: NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) • Observations: Daily chlorophyll data from SeaWiFS 1997-2004 • Assimilation method: Local SEIK filter mg/m3 mg/m3

18. What we have achieved so far ... • ultimate goal: fully operational integrated coupled physical-biogeochemical model system for the North Sea/Baltic Sea region • steps: [status from (- - -) to (  ) ] • A) coupling of circulation and wave model () • B) coupling of A) with SPM-model ( ) • C) coupling of an ecosystem model (low resolution, no) with B) ( ) • D) nesting of high resolution model (ku) in C). • physical (  ), biogeochemical(  ) • E) assimilation of ocean colour data in C, D (-) WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

19. Future development: MyOcean • Further development of ecosystem models will be done in the MyOcean project (EU FP7 project , 2009-2011) • MyOcean is the implementation project of the GMES Marine Core Service, aiming at deploying an integrated pan-European capacity for Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting. • * GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) is a European initiative for the implementation • of information services dealing with environment and security. WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

20. MyOcean

21. MyOcean - Baltic MFC • Co-operation of 4 production units • Partner: DMI, SMHI, BSH and FMI • Consortium approach: • new physical-biogechemical model 'HBM' • common model code with central code maintenance • common interface for ecosystem modules • ERGOM, BFM implemented by GOTM interface • different set-ups and forcing in different countries • ‘ensemble forecasting’ WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

22. MyOcean FTSS (Fast Track Service Specification) Overview of MFC-products: (baseline and standard products of Monitoring and Forecasting Centres) V0-services: by April 2009 (t0) V1- services : by end of 2010 V2- services : in 2011 WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

23. Thank you for your attention! WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

24. Estimated Chlorophyll back-compared to SeaWiFS mg/m3 mg/m3 mg/m3 • Assimilation strongly improves surface chlorophyll estimate • Intended deviations (Arabian Sea, Congo, Amazon) due to errors in observations • Other deviations in high- Chlorophyll regions

25. GOTM NPZD Fasham ECOHAM ERGOM BFM, ... archive observations output data Post-processing validation products Biogeochemical model environment forcing data initialisation data BSHdmod.E passiv SPM BIO

26. Cyanobacteria Fixation P. only Detrit. Mortality Diatoms Zoopl. Grazing Flagellates Respira- Uptake tion P Resuspen- Settling sion NH4 Recycling Nitrifica- tion Denitrifi- NO3 cation Sediment Atmosph. O2 Input N 2 Solar Radiation N 2 O 2 ERGOM WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

27. GOTM-BIO: ERGOM Structure of the Neumann et al. (2002) model with cyanobacteria (cya), diatoms (dia), dinoflagellates (a), detritus (det),zooplankton (zoo), ammonium (amm), nitrate (nit) detritus sediment (sed), oxygen (oxy) and phosphorus (pho) as the ten state variables. The concentrations are in mmol N m−3, mmol N m−2, mmol P m−3 and l O2m−3. Conservative fluxes are denoted by thin green arrows, nonconservative fluxes by bold arrows. WGPBI Aberdeen 2010, Frank Janssen

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