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Advancing Arctic Meteorology: Enhancing Observing Networks and Climate Projections

Explore the mechanisms of Arctic warming and uncertainties in climate projections at the SAON seminar in St. Petersburg. Learn about Greenland melt dynamics, permafrost carbon feedbacks, and the potential slowdown of the MOC in connection with AOFWB. Discover near-term predictions, including decadal-scale variability and anthropogenic signals. Dive into spatial scale adaptation options and mitigation strategies according to IPCC 2007 reports. Understand the importance of reanalyses, NWP models, and observational data assimilation in filling observation gaps and improving data quality in high latitudes. Find out about the significance of satellite and in situ observations in enhancing Arctic system reanalyses and surface meteorology models. Explore the need for an optimized observational network, including automatic stations and buoys, to increase measurement parameters and improve the accuracy of climate models. Special focus on wind measurements for better reanalyses and harnessing Arctic energy resources.

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Advancing Arctic Meteorology: Enhancing Observing Networks and Climate Projections

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  1. Arctic observing networks: METEOROLOGY Vladimir Kattsov SAON seminar,St.Petersburg,7 July 2008

  2. Arctic warming: mechanisms? NSIDC, 2007; Lugina et al., 2007

  3. Climate projections: uncertainties SLR: Greenland melt dynamic mechanisms? Feedbacks (rate of warming): Permafrost carbon? Ice-free Arctic? MOC slowdown (in connection with AOFWB) Near-term predictions (up to a decade): Decadal scale variability vs. anthropogenic signal Spatial scale (adaptation and mitigation options) IPCC., 2007

  4. Reanalyses NWP models + assimilation of observational data: comprehensive, homogeneous, long-period data sets filling gaps in observations insufficient quality in high lats (inter-reanalyses scatter) Observations needed to improve reanalyses: Satellites: coverage OK; accuracy and number of characteristics – should be improved In situ (surface and balloons): accuracy is an advantage, but not the coverage ASR (Arctic System Reanalysis)

  5. MGO responsibility: surface meteorology Arctic land stations: co-responsibility with AARI part of Russian state observing system (Roshydromet) generally, from 1930s (but there are much earlier) now 52 stations (vs. 110 couple of decades ago) almost half of them (23) are a part of the bench-mark climate network of Russia observed 48 parameters monthly and yearly reports (on climatic stations, by 3 regional Roshydromet’s operational administrations) In situ observations are needed to: test remote sensing data constrain climate models

  6. Needs as seen from MGO Restoring the surface station network continue time series account for spatio-temporal variability (optimum distribution) application of comprehensive models and maths to optimize (testing impact of observational sites) Adding automatic stations incl. buoys increase density where especially necessary increase the number of measured parameters (precip., snow depth, visibility, etc.) Special attention to the unification of methods, requirements, analysis Particular attention to the wind measurements: urgently needed for improving reanalyses a potentially powerful energy resource in the Arctic

  7. Precipitation Arctic precipitation: two generations of AOGCMs Kattsov et al., 2007

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