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Describing the regional dynamics of plant populations using models of intermediate complexity

Describing the regional dynamics of plant populations using models of intermediate complexity. Stephen Galsworthy Centre for Mathematical Biology University of Oxford. Project Background.

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Describing the regional dynamics of plant populations using models of intermediate complexity

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  1. Describing the regional dynamics of plant populations using models of intermediate complexity Stephen Galsworthy Centre for Mathematical Biology University of Oxford

  2. Project Background • Part of a larger NERC funded grant entitled ‘Can metapopulation theory describe the regional dynamics of plants?’ • Matthias Wichmann at CEH Dorset

  3. Project Details • Wild Cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. oleracea) • Black Mustard (Brassica nigra) Modelling regional dynamics of two species: Both are found on Dorset cliffs up to 10 metres from the cliff edge

  4. Project Details • Long-lived seed bank • Both short and long range seed dispersal Important features of the system: Initially have attempted to model the dynamics of plants and seeds of an annual (Brassica nigra)

  5. Death Death λs mp Colonization Proportion of Plants p Proportion of Seeds s rs(1-p) Re-colonization cp(1-p) αp Addition to seed bank Model Description

  6. Future Development • Obtain realistic parameter values for the current model • Include spatial effects • Create an alternative model (age-structured) to describe the dynamics of a perennial (Brassica oleracea)

  7. Describing the regional dynamics of plant populations using models of intermediate complexity Stephen Galsworthy Centre for Mathematical Biology University of Oxford

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