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hubbertpeak/

World Oil Production Have We Reached Our Peak? M.Hernandez hernandez@ncssm.edu Teaching Contemporary Mathematics Conference NCSSM January 2006. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/.

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hubbertpeak/

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  1. World Oil Production Have We Reached Our Peak?M.Hernandez hernandez@ncssm.eduTeaching Contemporary Mathematics ConferenceNCSSMJanuary 2006

  2. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

  3. “We are facing an unprecedented problem. World oil production has stopped growing; declines in production are about to begin. For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the geological supply of an essential resource will not meet the demand.” From “Beyond Oil. The View from Hubbert’s Peak” by Kenneth Deffeyes

  4. M. King Hubbert His prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then but his analysis has since proved to be remarkably accurate.

  5. Fitting a Model to US Oil Production • Compositions and Transformations of Functions • Linearization Techniques • Calculus Methods

  6. US Oil: Precalculus Model 1

  7. U.S. Oil: Calculus Model • Using Difference Quotients we are searching for a model of the form:

  8. US Oil with Difference Quotients

  9. World Oil with Difference Quotients

  10. Informative Graphs on the Web • Laherrere – Multi-Hubbert Modeling http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/multihub.htm • Time to Depletion Midpoint (Years) www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm • Frontline World PBS – Where Does Oil Come From? www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/oila.html

  11. Multi-Hubbert ModelingJean Laherrere, July 1997 France

  12. Multi-Hubbert ModelingFrom Laherrere

  13. Information for You • Excel Spreadsheets • Data Sets on the Web • MathCad Docs • Difference Quotient Lab

  14. Maybe it’s time to get a hybrid?

  15. “There are 175 billion barrels of proven oil reserves here. That’s second to Saudi Arabia’s 260 billion but it’s only what companies can get with today’s technology. The estimate of how many more barrels of oil are buried deeper underground is staggering. “ Problems with greenhouse emissions and the problem of digging up an entire province. “The Oil Sands of Alberta” – Last week’s 60 minutes

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