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Modeling the Spread of Influence on the Blogosphere. Akshay Java, Pranam Kolari, Tim Finin, and Tim Oates UMBC Tech Report 04/12/06. Outline. What is influence? Basic Influence Model Influence models for the blogosphere Results Conclusions. What is Influence?.

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modeling the spread of influence on the blogosphere

Modeling the Spread of Influence on the Blogosphere

Akshay Java, Pranam Kolari, Tim Finin, and Tim Oates

UMBC Tech Report

04/12/06

outline
Outline
  • What is influence?
  • Basic Influence Model
  • Influence models for the blogosphere
  • Results
  • Conclusions
what is influence
What is Influence?

Main Entry: in·flu·encePronunciation: 'in-"flü-&n(t)s, esp Southern in-'Function: nounEtymology: Middle English, from Middle French, from Medieval Latin influentia, from Latin influent-, influens, present participle of influere to flow in, from in- + fluere to flow -- more at FLUID1 a: an ethereal fluid held to flow from the stars and to affect the actions of humans b: an emanation of occult power held to derive from stars2: an emanation of spiritual or moral force3 a:the act or power of producing an effect without apparent exertion of force or direct exercise of commandb: corrupt interference with authority for personal gain4 : the power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or intangible ways : SWAY5: one that exerts influence- under the influence: affected by alcohol : DRUNK <was arrested for driving under the influence>

NOT This Kind of Influence! ;-)

motivation
Motivation
  • Influence models studied for cocitation graphs
    • David Kempe, Jon Kleinberg, Eva TardosMaximizing the Spread of Influence through a Social Network, KDD 2003
  • Applies to blogs also.
    • Recent Examples: Startups, Microsoft Origami, Walmart,DoD
  • GOAL: Predict influential blogs
    • Target nodes to help achieve a “Tipping Point”*

* The Tipping Point: Malcolm Gladwell

influence on the blogosphere
Influence on the Blogosphere

Post was

Influenced by

NPR, eWeek

influence models for the blogosphere
Influence Models for the Blogosphere

Blog Graph

Influence Graph

1/3

U

2

2

1

3

3

2/5

1/3

V

1/3

1

1

1

1/5

5

5

2/5

4

4

1/2

1/2

Wu,v = Cu,v / dv

U links to V => U is Influenced by V

basic influence models
Basic Influence Models

Influence Graph

  • Linear Threshold Model

Σ bvw ≥ θv

w is the active neighbor of v

  • Cascade Model

Pvw- probability with which a

node can activate each of its

neighbors, independent of

history.

1/3

Active

2

1

3

2/5

1/3

θv

1/3

1

1

1/5

5

2/5

Active

4

Inactive

1/2

1/2

node selection heuristics
Node Selection Heuristics
  • Inlinks
    • Easily spammed
  • Centrality
    • Expensive to compute for every large graphs
  • PageRank
    • Requires link information
    • However, is easy to compute
  • Greedy Heuristic
    • Computationally expensive
    • However performs better
effect of splogs on node selection indegree vs pagerank
Effect of Splogs on Node Selection(indegree vs pagerank)

Almost 54% of the links were from splogs/failed to splogs/failed!

effect of splogs on inlinks
Effect of Splogs on Inlinks

Tightly Knit

Community

of Splog

conlusions
Conlusions
  • Influence models can be applied to blogs not just cocitation graphs
  • Splogs are a problem
  • Greedy heuristics work well, pagerank is an inexpensive approximation
ideas for cikm 06
Ideas for CIKM 06
  • Good or bad influence? Associating sentiment with links.
  • Finding influential blogs for a topic. (SVM accuracy 75-85%)
  • Community structure of blogs.
slide16
Questions
  • Comments/ Feedback?
  • Thanks!
  • Acknowledgement:
    • Buzzmetrics/Blogpulse for the dataset.