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  1. Maasai fertility: Kenya-Tanzania comparisons Impacts of land-use policy on environment, wildlife, demography and socio-economic indicators in east African savannas: the Serengeti Ecological Unit University College London Kenya Wildlife Service University of Dar Es Salaam Catholic University of Louvain European Union [Grant No. IC18-CT976-0070]; Parkes Foundation

  2. “Everyone “knows” the Maasai” (Spear, 1993:1) Ethnographic writing/ Filming Colonial records Tourism Photography Conservation

  3. Sum of demographic knowledge... Author Method Information Philip (1930) ? Average parity 3.4 births per woman McKay (1950) ? Average parity 3.2 births per woman Jacobs (1973) Guess Average parity 8 births per woman Kramer (1980) ? Mean age at first marriage = 16.6yrs (f) de Vries (1984) ? IMR “probably falls between 120 0/00and the 1910 figure of 300 0/00” Nangawe (1985) ? IMR 355 0/00 Megan (1994) ? IMR 186 0/00

  4. Extent of “Maasailand”

  5. Campbell (1979) “population growth rate of the Maasai is 2.2%…this is an estimate made by […] who has spent many years studying health-related issues in Maasailand”

  6. Data collectionSingle Round Demographic Survey Sampling frames  Unavailable/ out of date Sampling strategy  Availability Research instrument  Pre-tested questionnaire Enumeration unit  Household Enumerators  Locally recruited Maasai Sample size  14,928 individuals 1,565 households 2,828 women aged 15-49

  7. Map of study sites

  8. Issues of data collection Enumerators Reference to death Age Counting Paternity El Niño No widowers Birth history

  9. Adult female mortality Widowhood question: “Is your first wife still alive?” XXX Orphanhood question: “Is your biological mother alive?” 

  10. Widowhood data

  11. Maternal Orphanhood Data

  12. Maternal Mortality Maternal death = misdemeanour Pregnancy behaviour Based on reports of adult sisters Lifetime risk = 1 in 40 1 in 4 of all reported adult sister deaths was due to maternal causes

  13. Adult male mortality Widowhood question: “Is your first husband still alive?”  Orphanhood question: “Is your biological father alive?” XXX

  14. Widowhood data

  15. Male life expectancy at birth Maasai National Kenya 54.3 55.3 Tanzania 52.1 48.1

  16. Early age mortality - expectations Raise Lower Nutritional stress Population density Healthcare Living environment

  17. Early age mortality 1q04q1 Kenya 17 38 Tanzania 17 39 (per 1,000 live births)

  18. Sexual initiation

  19. Children represent For men Power and influence (political and social) “How can a man without children advise others as to how best to command others?” “The status of an elder ultimately hinges on the fertility of his wives” For women Access to livestock Security in widowhood

  20. Fertility data Collected from all ever-married women “Brass” questions on ceb-cs Births in the last 12 months

  21. Data Quality: Cumulative asfr v. mean reported parity

  22. Mean reported parity

  23. TFR (p/f ratio) by location

  24. TFR in national contexts Maasai National Rural Kenya 8.2 5.2 Tanzania 6.4 6.3

  25. Kenya-Tanzania fertility differential nuptiality* lactational amenorrhea sterility* abortion contraception fecundability abstinence

  26. Female age at first marriage Kenya Tanzania Median 17.0 17.0 SMAM 17.3 18.9

  27. Current female marital status Kenya Tanzania

  28. Sterility “It is said…that…the Masai females are becoming increasingly sterile” (1902) “Sterility before marriage and after miscarriage has resulted in a greatly decreased birth rate” (1930) “Healthworkers hold that venereal diseases are rampant in the Maasai communities” (1999)

  29. Sterility Primary sterility Kenya 2.9% Tanzania 1.8% Secondary sterility Up to age 44 higher levels in Tanzanian Maasai than Kenyan Maasai

  30. Age specific secondary sterility rates, by country

  31. Kenya fertility

  32. Kenyan fertility differentials Narok Kajiado Land tenure Sub-division Communal Grp. R, Outside interest(s) Tourism Extremely limited Wheat farming Land grabbing Agri. Potential High and rising Very restricted Circumcised sons Very advantageous Unchanged Ecol. sustainability Falling Unchanged

  33. Natural Increase (% p.a.) Kenya Tanzania Both National 2.89 3.22 - Maasai (Census) 4.46 n/a - Maasai (Survey) - - 3.9