“Cruise Control for Projects”

1. CriticalChain Project Management “Cruise Control for Projects” Skip Reedy Theory of Constraints Jonah TOCICO Certified Critical Chain Project Management

2. Standish Group “Chaos Report” “There is no reliable way to measure project status until it’s too late.”

3. Theory of Constraints Dr Eli Goldratt Every system has something that limits it. If you identify the system constraint and help it, you get more output from the system. CriticalChain ProjectManagement The constraint of a project is the Critical Chain. Help it to get done faster and the project gets done faster. This kink is the constraint of this simple system.

4. PMI A GUIDE TO THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE Chapter 6 – Project Time Management Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) 1 + pages Critical Path Method (CPM) 2 + pages

5. comment on PMI CCPM forum "Critical chain is crazy. It is based on an assumption that we consistently over estimate durations. My experience is that we typically under estimate durations … then [Critical Chain says to] arbitrarily reduce durations to comply with critical chain thinking …”

6. What is a Project? “A project is a combination of dependent events and statistical fluctuations, convoluted by human behavior and purported to accomplish a goal.”

7. Statistical Fluctuations How long will a project take? Task estimates are needed to plan a project. The estimates together determine the project length. Project managers want their tasks to be on time, because if the tasks are on time, their projects will be on time.

8. Estimating How long does it take to Catch a Fish? At Pike Place Market in Seattle?

9. Test your estimating skill! Estimating a task with little information or experience. Write your estimates on the handout page. How long will it take a horse and rider to travel 20 miles cross country?

10. Variation in Tasks An Imaginary Curve Commute to Downtown On-time Probability 90% 50% Occurrences 60 Leave Home 0 25 50 Minutes 75 100 120 Duration Estimate

11. Duration Estimates for Planning a Project Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected 5 days 10 days 20 days 11 5 days 10 days 20 days 20 days Project Lengths 40 days 80 days

12. Probability of a longer task Subconsciously we think the probability curve doesn’t move when we increase the estimate.

13. Project Scheduling Software Turns estimates into deadlines 1/26 2/9 Like Milestones 2/23 2/10 Like Deadlines 3/8 2/24 3/22 3/9 Software Schedule Project Start Project End 3/22 1/26

14. Deadline Management means “Be NOT Late” Long estimates are self-fulfilling prophesies

15. Deadlines and Convoluting Behaviors • Parkinson’s Law • Work expands to fill the available time when there isn’t enough to do. A

16. Deadlines and Convoluting Behaviors The Student Syndrome Due Date Effort Time

17. Multi-Tasking - is the worst This is how long each task or project should take if full attention is paid to each in turn. Effort on Blue is interrupted by other projects. Blue’s duration Switching projects takes time.

18. Multi-Tasking demo Delays caused by interruptions and switching tasks Multi-task by writing a letter, number, letter, number, … M U L T I T A S K 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Time required ______

19. Multi-Tasking demo Do NOT Multi-task. Write all the letters, then write all the numbers. M U L T I T A S K 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Time required ______

20. The Student Syndrome & Multi-Tasking Effort Time

21. The Student Syndrome & severe Multi-Tasking Or maybe like this! Effort Time

22. Estimates become Actual Durations Our allowances for “stuff” become part of the actual duration Task Estimate is a Number S/W schedules Start & End Dates End Date = Due Date  Milestone = Deadline Human Behaviors meet Deadlines Tasks finish when Due Pick a Number, get a Duration

23. Lates Accumulate A Late A Pushed A Pushed + C Pushed C Late Late Project Due Project Start Project Due 3/22 The probability curve and deadline move as tasks B, C & D are pushed by A.

24. What do we know! We don’t know when anything will finish. Yet, tasks often get done about when they are estimated. Allowances for delays & problems get used up. EARLY usually doesn’t happen, and LATE often does. Being on time is hard to do.

25. The Pony Express needs YOU!

26. Short Estimates Project Duration The schedule doesn’t fit the business case. Business Case This schedule fits the business case. However, each task must start before its predecessor ends. In order to make it work, I’m asking you to use aggressive 50% durations. Critical Chain tasks

27. The Critical Chain

28. Good Statistics Help the Pony Express The variability of a series of tasks is less than that of the sum of the individual task variabilities. Series flow time probability Central Limit Theorem

29. The Feeding Chains

30. Critical Chain Buffers

31. Due Buffer Management Fever Chart Late Project Fever Chart Early

32. Work Rules Critical Chain Project Management Prioritize work (tasks & projects) Use aggressive task estimates Identify the Critical Chain Aggregate safety in buffers Use Buffer Management Work quickly on one task

33. Multi-Project Critical Chain

34. Multi-Project Fever Chart

35. Consider Unloading Ships...(Projects) 5 ships + 5 persons @ 5 person-days to unload each = 5 days

36. Staggering the Projects Put all five resources on ship 1 the first day, ship 2 the second day, etc. Initial Results: Ship New (days) Old (days) Saved 1 1 5 4 2 2 5 3 3 3 5 2 4 4 5 1 5 5 5 0 Nobody loses. Four of five clients done sooner. Cost = $ 0 Continuing Results: Each arriving ship is unloaded in 1 day.

37. Confluence

38. Boeing Commercial Airplanes Application of CCPM to 777-300 ER Airframe Design 55% of the Airplane 85% of the Airframe 20% larger than any previous derivative 10,000 projects 1,000 people at (peak) $500,000,000 program Adapted from a presentation by Stephen R. Johnson 777 Airframe Integration Team Chief Engineer (AFIT) 38

39. 777-300 ER Challenges & Results Load data > 2 months late Experienced lead engineers resisted CCPM for more than 6 months 26% faster than its very aggressive schedule 50% reduction* in engineering errors All end-items shipped on time Improved engineering release compliance ~15% * Relative to the last 777 derivative: 777-300 39

40. The Next Derivative with CCPM • 777-200 LR airframe design was completed 5 months earlier than a very aggressive schedule

41. Be EARLY, NOT LATE Critical Chain is EARLY 3 Ideas to Use Today The Critical Chain is the constraint. Focus on it so it’s always being worked. Pink Paper Pyramids keep the distractions away. Ask 3 Status Questions: What’s going on? What are you doing about it? and Do you need any help.

42. Questions?

43. Skip Reedy Skip is certified in Critical Chain Project Management. He is a member of the Project Management Institute and the Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization. He was with Boeing Commercial Airplanes in Seattle as a Manufacturing Engineer and Design Engineer for 8 years and then as an internal CCPM consultant for six years. For the last eight years he is an independent project management consultant with CCPM Consulting LLC. He is a mechanical engineer from the University of Detroit with an MBA from Loyola University of Chicago. He is a Theory of Constriants Jonah and is certified by TOCICO. Skip can be contacted at 480-648-1862 skip@ccpmconsulting.com http://ccpmconsulting.com

44. Marine Corps Logistics Base TOC & CCPM implementation 8 minute video is available at http://www.ccpmconsulting.com/marine-corps-logistics-base-albany-ga/

45. Traditional Project Management Estimates become NOT LATE Task Estimates Confident estimates are long enough to get the work done, allowing for typical delays and problems. Probability as a Number An estimate is not a prediction. We don’t know how long anything will take. It’s a single number for a task that has the possibility of a range of durations. Crazy Project Management Software Project management software schedules estimates with start and end dates. End dates become due dates, and deadlines. Deadlines must be met. Convoluted Normal Behaviors Parkinson’s Law, the Student Syndrome, Multitasking, Deadlines reinforce be NOT LATE. LATEs, not EARLYs Tasks are rarely EARLY and often LATE. LATE tasks push successors to be LATE. LATEs accumulate. EARLYs don’t. Allowances are Ineffective Allowances for delays and problems (Safety, Contingency, or Buffer time) are effective against being NOT EARLY and NOT LATE. This safety is wasted. Increasing the safety makes projects longer LATE tasks encourage future estimates to be longer. Longer estimates make longer projects. Longer projects struggle to be NOT LATE. Safety in tasks creates longer projects without improving on-time results.

46. Original Pink Pyramid Shameless Advertising purported to accomplish a goal. 110 # card stock works well. Using a straight-edge, run a dull knife along/between the fold lines. Fold in Management convoluted by human behavior and Skip Reedy Project Suggested warnings: What I am working on is more important than whatever it is you are about to ask me. So don’t do it! If you are delivering money, please interrupt. Tape together close to the corners. Chain I already know what you are going to ask me. The answer is NO! Fold in Critical nt events and statistical fluctuations, For help call 480-648-1862 Please do not disturb. most foul. Disturb at your peril. I am presently in a mood overload. If you intend to interrupt me, please call 911 first. My brain is currently experiencing a bandwidth A project is a combination of depende