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AusIMM Technical meeting

Professor Robin J Batterham AO FAA, FTSE, FREng, FNAE, FSATW, FCAE, FINAE Kernot Professor of Engineering Former Chief Scientist of Australia and Global Head of innovation, Rio Tinto. The science of climate change, energy policy and the impact for the mining industry – all in one evening.

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AusIMM Technical meeting

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  1. Professor Robin J Batterham AO FAA, FTSE, FREng, FNAE, FSATW, FCAE, FINAE Kernot Professor of Engineering Former Chief Scientist of Australia and Global Head of innovation, Rio Tinto The science of climate change, energy policy and the impact for the mining industry – all in one evening AusIMM Technical meeting

  2. Making sense of climate science • And so to energy policy • And consequences for mining

  3. A picture is worth 1000 words

  4. A fairly similar picture • Pity the picture is nothing much to do with climate change but is from the dried up Aral Sea – a consequence of over allocating irrigation water for cotton production

  5. Some fundamentals on science • Science is not about truth – it is about utility • If a hypothesis is useful, we use it. If not, we discard it

  6. A useful hypothesis – Milankovitch (1941)

  7. Variations in radiation from the sun • If slight variations in radiation from the sun cause ice ages, impact of more rapid variations? • shorter term climate (seasons to hundreds of years) depends on sun spot activity • documented Chinese observations of high solar activity in the AD 960 – 1279 period correlates nicely with the well documented mediaeval warm period (10th Century to 14th Century

  8. Norwegian Fjord sediment reconstruction of temperature Source: Temperatures reconstructed from stable oxygen isotopes (d18O) measured on shallow infaunal benthic foraminiferal species Cassidulina laevigata. 2018 I. P. Asteman, H. L. Filipsson and K. Nordberg. “Tracing winter temperatures over the last two millennia using a NE Atlantic coastal record”. Climate of the Past. Referenced https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-160

  9. And variations in the solar wind and cosmic radiation?

  10. Hypotheses are not just about verification: but also relevance • More cosmic rays means more ‘cloud condensation nuclei’ (CCN), more clouds, and a colder climate. • higher numbers of sunspots, our own star’s magnetic field helps shield the planet from cosmic rays, meaning less cloud formation and thus higher temperatures. • Terry Sloan, of the University of Lancaster, calculated the contribution of cosmic rays at less than 10% of the global warming seen in the 20th century.

  11. Is the alarm and call for urgent action justifiable? • Andrew Glikson, very well published scientist from ANU calling for emergency action • Otherwise humanity and much of nature will be wiped out • We have the same conditions of rapid rise in CO2 as in the 56 million years old Paleocene-Eocene mass extinction event Source: Dr Andrew Glikson “Onset Of Climate Tipping Points” Countercurrents.org. March 2018. https://countercurrents.org/2018/03/01/onset-climate-tipping-points/

  12. And it is not just CO2 in the tundra lies mercury • Claims from ice core probes that the tundra holds between 330,000 and 800,000 tonnes mercury. • Note annual anthropogenic emissions 2000 t (mainly from coal burning) Source: http://sz.de/1.3913661

  13. Glikson in summary High CO2 and rising fast results in mass extinction. It happened in the past so it will happen again. But what caused the last super fast rise of CO2, with the isotopic ratios changing rapidly, ie a fairly fast injection of different CO2 into the atmosphere • Volcanic eruptions, noting the kimberlite pipes in Canada: some clear evidence • Massive meteor impact: some clear evidence • Rapid melting of methane hydrates: some clear evidence but not as to what caused it Source: http://sz.de/1.3913661

  14. Emission reduction and negative emissions: a no regrets approach or an emergency? On the one hand: some reasonable predictions we are in for cooling On the other hand: a lot more reasonable predictions we are in for heating So: let’s head in the direction of negative emissions Source: https://www.thegwpf.com/global-temperatures-drop-back-to-pre-el-nino-levels-2/

  15. And we may need a lot of negative emissions We need 4 Gt/y of C reduction

  16. Making sense of climate science • And so to energy policy • And consequences for mining

  17. Why the lack of action? • Finkel a good start towards a coherent policy. • We seem fixated on renewables rather than emissions. • The science informing policy is often not rigorous.

  18. “The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness.” Source: 2018 P. Larcombe and P. Ridd. “The need for a formalised system of Quality Control for environmental policy-science”. Marine Pollution Bulletin 126, 449-461

  19. One example close to home Great Barrier Reef region – rightly an icon • $375m between 2008-2013 • Further $575m 2015-2020 on water quality issues Any of the >3000 reefs in the GBMP can suffer catastrophic events: eg COTS, cyclone damage, thermal bleaching. Yet AIMS shows such reefs regenerate in 10-20 years. “the marine research community may not have remained sufficiently sceptical in sending and receiving information caused by human pressures in the ocean”

  20. The licence to operate is quite variable

  21. What is the right energy policy to deliver negative emissions? Target emissions, not renewables • Technology agnostic • Incentives for the market to deliver Sounds like a price on carbon, or cap and trade, or variants…

  22. Response in the press: “Excessive green taxes force up energy bills” • The actual recommendations: • Carbon pricing • Border tax • Legacy bank • Replace renewable energy auctions with power capacity auctions

  23. There are plenty of other ideas Source: 2018 W. Jehne “Regenerate earth: The practical drawdown of 20 billion tonnes of carbon back into soils annually to rehydrate bio-systems and safely cool climates”. Healthy Soils Australia

  24. Making sense of climate science • And so to energy policy • And consequences for mining

  25. Grades keep falling Source: http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/MRF/Areas/Resourceful-magazine/Issue-07/Producing-more-from-less

  26. Exploration isn’t helping much Exploration expenditures and discoveriesWestern World 1975-2017 Number of Tier 1&2 Discoveries 2017 US$b Caution: Incomplete data Note: No adjustment has been made for unreported discoveries or potential upgrades in known deposits Tier 1 deposits are World Class Mines Tier 2 deposit have some but not all the characteristics of a T1 Source: Schodde, R.C., 2018. MinEx Consulting. Private communication

  27. We face some challenges Source: http://www.cmic-ccim.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/1_Grant_Ballantyne_1.pdf

  28. There are three answers • Land surrounding mines should be targeted for increasing soil C • Geomining and separation of gangue much earlier • “Mine of the future”

  29. Applications of ISR • References to ISR date back to 177 BC; Chinese used ISR to recover copper in 907 AD • Applied previously to • Water-soluble salts • Minerals (U, Cu, Au, Li) • Porous/soft rock deposits (limited uptake for deep, hard-rock mineral systems) • Pre-existing infrastructure Source: CSIRO In-situ recovery symposium (May/June 2017)

  30. Questions

  31. Extra Slides

  32. Be careful of “cherry picking”

  33. Areal fraction of conterminous U.S. under very wet (blue) or very dry (red) conditions. NOAA/NCEI. Source: http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/data-contradict-government-climate-claims/

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