Влияние космической погоды на человека в космосе и на Земле, Москва, 4-8 июня 2012 O n the role of cosmic rays and other space weather factors in the Earth's climate changes. by Lev I. Dorman (1, 2)
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Влияние космической погоды на человекав космосе и на Земле, Москва, 4-8 июня 2012On the role of cosmic rays and other space weather factors in the Earth's climate changes
by Lev I. Dorman (1, 2)
Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk 142092, Moscow Region, Russia;
Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University
and Israel Space Agency, Qazrin 12900, Israel;
Cosmic rays play a key role in the formation of thunder-storms and lightnings (see extended review in Dorman, M2004, Chapter 12). Many authors (Markson, 1978; Price, 2000; Tinsley, 2000; Schlegel et al., 2001; Dorman and Dorman, 1995, 2005; Dorman et al, 2003) have considered atmospheric electric field phenomena as a possible link between solar activity and the Earth’s climate. Also important in the relationship between CR and climate, is the influence of long term changes in the geomagnetic field on CR intensity through the changes of cutoff rigidity (see review in Dorman, M2009). It can be consider the general hierarchical relationship: (solar activity cycles + long-term changes in the geomagnetic field) → (CR long term modulation in the Heliosphere + long term variation of cutoff rigidity) → (long term variation of clouds covering + atmospheric electric field effects) → climate change.
Table 1. Global annual mean forcing due to various types of clouds, from the Earth RadiationBudget Experiment (ERBE), according to Hartmann (1993). The positive forcing increases the net radiation budget of the Earth and leads to a warming; negative forcing decreases the net radiation and causes a cooling. (Note that the global fraction implies that 36.7% of the Earth is cloud free.)
CR intensity obtained at the Huancayo/Haleakala Neutron Monitor (norma-lized to October 1965, curve 2) in comparison with global average monthly cloud coverage anomalies (curves 1) at heights, H, for: a – high clouds, H > 6.5 km, b – middle clouds, 6.5 km >H > 3.2 km, and c – low clouds, H < 3.2 km. From Marsh and Swensmark (2000).
7. The Influence of Long Term Variations of Cosmic Ray Intensity on Wheat Prices (Related to Climate Change) in Medieval England and Modern USA
10. The Influence of Geomagnetic Disturbances and Solar Activity on the Climate through Energetic Particle Precipitation from Inner Radiation Belt
Near the equator, in the Brazilian Magnetic Anomaly (BMA) region, the main part of galactic and solar CR is shielded by a geomagnetic field. Significant magnetic disturbances can produce precipitation of energetic particles from the inner radiation belt and subsequent ionization of the atmosphere. The influence of solar-terrestrial connections on climate in the BMA region was studied by Pugacheva et al. (1995). Two types of correlations were observed: 1) a significant short and long time scale correlation between the index of geomagnetic activity Kp and rainfall in Sao Paulo State; 2) the correlation-anti-correlation of rainfalls with the 11 and 22 year cycles of solar activity for 1860-1990 in Fortaleza. It was found that with a delay of 511 days, almost every significant (more than 3.0) increase of the Kp-index is accompanied by an increase in rainfall.
The effect is most noticeable at the time of the great geomagnetic storm of February 8 1986, when the electron fluxes of inner radiation belt reached the atmosphere between 18-21 February and the greatest rainfall of the 1986 was recorded on 19 February. Again, after a series of solar flares, great magnetic disturbances were registered between 1922 March, 1991. On the 22 March a Sao Paolo station showed the greatest rainfall of the year.
12. Description of Long-Term Galactic Cosmic Ray Variation by both Convection-Diffusion and Drift Mechanisms with Possibility of Forecasting of Some Part of Climate Change in Near Future Caused by Cosmic Rays (see details in Poster PS-20)
15. Project ‘Cloud’ in CERN as an Important Step in Understanding the Link between Cosmic Rays and Dust with Clouds Formation
Main component of the Center is Emilio-Segre Israel-Italy Cosmic Ray Observatory (ESOI) included neutron super monitor for monitoring of cosmic ray variation. Registration of multiplicity of secondary particles allow to detect energy spectrum of primary cosmic ray flux. High time resolution (1-min) allow to detect fast variations, caused by solar flares.
Israel-Italy Cosmic Ray Observatory (ESOI) is part of European collaboration (network NMDB) of neutron monitors, what allow to use in real time analysis data from 16 CR observatories for forecasting of impact of magnetic storms
Example of fast cosmic ray precursors in anisotropy of cosmic ray preceded 1 day before impact of solar flare ejection on the Earth magnetosphere (Magnetic storm 9/09/1992)
Dorman L., European collaboration (network NMDB) of neutron monitors, what allow to use in real time analysis data from 16 CR observatories for forecasting of impact of magnetic storms“Cosmic Rays in the Earth's Atmosphere and Underground”, 862 pp, Kluwer Academic Publisher, 2004.
Dorman L.,“Cosmic Ray Interactions, Propagation, and Acceleration in Space Plasmas”, Astrophysics and Space Science Library, Vol. 339), 847 pp., Springer Netherlands, 2006.
Dorman L., “Cosmic Rays in Magnetospheres of the Earth and other Planets”, (Astrophysics and Space Science Library, Volume 358), 632 pp., Springer Netherlands, 2009.
Dorman L., “The Role of Space Weather and Cosmic Ray Effects in Climate Change”, In Trevor M. Letcher, editor: Climate Change: Observed impacts on Planet Earth, The Netherlands, , pp. 43-76, 2009.
Dorman L., “Solar Neutrons and Related Phenomena” , Springer Netherlands, 2010.