Using Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition Maximo Torero Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division Director IFPRI Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013
Overview • The Challenge: Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety. • The Opportunity: Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety? • A4NH Theme 1 Research: How is it embracing this opportunity?
Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety. The Challenge
Income Growth Can Reduce Child Stunting, But Other Actions Needed A 10% increase in GDP/PC leads to a 6% reduction in stunting Source: Ruel and Alderman, 2013
A Changing Focus for Agriculture and Nutrition • Increased calorie production and incomes no longer seen as agriculture’s only role in improved nutrition • Focus on how agriculture influences other important determinants of child stunting • Women’s empowerment, education, time • Sanitation and water quality • Nutrient density and diet quality/diversity
Dietary Transition • Diet shift from staples base to other foods is well-known development outcome • Healthy diet diversity includes vegetables, fruits, legumes, animal source foods • Documented link to improved micronutrient density and nutrition outcomes at micro level • Undesirable increase in fats, sugars, processed foods now occurring at lower income levels with food system modernization • Emerging double burden of over and under nutrition in many countries
Diet Diversification: Food Group Shares (kcal/cap/day) Fats and Sugars Fats and Sugars Nutrient Rich Foods Starchy staples Starchy staples Nutrient Rich Foods Data Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2009
Summary: Income Growth Not Sufficient for Desired Nutrition • Income not perfect driver for improved diets, nutrition • Lags in reducing stunting; emerging double burden • Improved diets mean increases in diet diversity and consumption of nutrient rich foods • Micronutrient density and relationship to nutrition at micro level well-established • Potential for “unhealthy” diversity reinforced by structural trends in urbanization, retailing
Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety? The Opportunity
Why Income Growth is Not Sufficient: Market Failures and Diet Quality • Consumer knowledge incomplete • nutrition, nutrient content/ safety of foods • Supply constraints for nutrient rich foods • perishability, seasonality, variable nutrient content, food safety, transport • Result: Under-provision of improved nutrition and food safety
Are There Also Public Failures? • Public focus on staple crops means underinvestment in nutrient rich foods • Pulses in India • Public focus on meeting food safety standards for high income market access means underinvestment in public health oriented food safety • Aflatoxins
Value Chain Approach Example: Nutrition education delivered by vegetable seed supplier Producer Inputs into production Supply side Food production Test solutions to improve demand for nutrition and safety along the value chain Food storage and processing Identify production and market constraints to improved nutrition and safety Food distribution and transport Characterize diets, market access and constraints to consumption of nutritious, safe foods Food retail and labeling Develop and test solutions Example: Increased seasonal availability of fruit Demand side Consumer
Elements of This Approach • Each value chain study for a nutrient-rich food should include all of these elements: • Dietary and nutritional assessment of target population • Identification of key foods to improve / diversify diets • Mapping of the value chain for these foods • Identification of constraints to supply and to demand • Developing and/or testing interventions • Identification of enabling policies • Assessment of diet quality impact in target population
C Changes in Value Chains that Could Improve Nutrition • Technologies • Improvements in production, storage, handling, processing, or marketing to reduce nutritional loss, improve access, or reduce safety risks, eg. Greater seasonal availability for fruits • Information • Increased demand for improved safety and nutrition through education or improved incentives for different actors in the value chain, eg. Nutrition education with improved vegetable seeds • Nutritional quality reflected in prices and/or made more affordable, eg., Quality certification for locally sourced infant foods • Policies and Institutions • New contractual arrangements create incentives to deliver more nutrient rich foods or to create demand for such foods, eg. Home grown school lunch programs
Value Chain Impacts at Market / Whole Diet Level? • Develop markets for high value crops • Increase income for producers • Reduce relative prices of nutrient rich foods • Increase consumer access to healthy diversity • Leverage market incentives to enhance nutritional outcomes from markets • Partnerships with private sector to direct market development towards better nutrition • Can this provide the foundation for a more healthy dietary transition?
How is A4NH research embracing this opportunity and leveraging existing CGIAR expertise? A4NH Theme 1 Research
Building theA4NH Portfolio • 2012 • Centers: Bioversity, IFPRI, IITA, ICRAF, WorldFish • Smallest share of A4NH budget • 2013 • Seed Grants Awarded to Foster New Research, March • Workshop for Program Development, June • New Research Staff at IFPRI, September • Aflatoxin Vision 2020 Policy Briefs, November • Expanded Partnerships: AVDRC, Tufts, IDS, GAIN
Leveraging Production Technologies • Seasonality and Vitamin C content of mango (ICRAF) • Biocontrol of aflatoxin in maize and groundnut (IITA and ICRISAT) • Infant food development using small fish (WorldFish) • VC Research role: Test market viability and nutritional impact from these technologies
Leveraging thePrivate Sector • Danone-Grameen fortified yoghurt venture • Income enhancement for poor women • Nutrition enhancement for vulnerable groups • Vegetable seed suppliers in Bangladesh and Kenya • Nutrition messages with production extension • Encourage home consumption • Expand demand to support expanded supply • VC Research role: Validate responsible efforts; Identify scalable opportunities
Leveraging Market Incentives for Reduced Aflatoxins • Aflatoxins naturally occurring and can enter or multiply at any stage from production to consumption • Market solutions to improve/reward control: • Testing and certification through maize millers • Alternate uses, eg., oil processing, animal feeds • Training and product testing delivered through farmer organizations • Biocontrol adoption linked to feed markets • VC Research role: Test market interventions
Leveraging Dedicated Supply Chains • Home Grown School Feeding Programs • Develop and reward local supply chains for school feeding • Promote nutrition education linked to local foods • Support child nutrition, school performance, habit formation • VC Research role: measure nutrition, education, and market synergies
ResearchFindingHighlight:HealthBenefits and Agricultural ContractsExperimentalEvidence fromNorthernSenegal • Research question: • Can health-relatedincentivesbeused to improvecontractenforcementwithsmall-scale agricultural suppliers? • Can existing value chainlogisticsbeleveraged to increasehealth conditions in remote locations? • Context: • Semi-nomadicmilkproducers, veryremote location • Milking efforts by women, cash collected by men • Highlyunreliablemilksupply, particularly in dry season • Extremelevel of anemiaprevalence for children in the area (82% anemic, 15% severeanemic). • Study • Randomized control trial amongst 430 milksupliers to te LDB • Contractfor « x » liters/day per lactatingcows for all suppliers. • Half of the producersreceiveironfortifiedporridge for childrenupon satisfaction of contract on weekly basis.
.2 .1 0 -.1 Jun 2 Jul 14 Aug 4 Jan 27 Apr 21 Jun 23 Aug 25 Sep 15 Feb 17 Mar 10 Mar 31 May 12 ResearchFindingHighlight:HealthBenefits and Agricultural ContractsExperimentalEvidence fromNorthernSenegal • Clear and significanteffect on milkdeliveryduring dry season • Order of magnitude: 10 percentage point (=30%) highercontractfulfillment in treatment group in earlyJune. Note: Generalizedpropensity score estimateused to deal withendogeneity of treatmentintensity. Green and redlines are 95% confidence interval • Positive dose-responseeffect on children’shealth (Hemoglobin level) • Order of magnitude: 1.25 g/dl Hemoglobinincrease for 16 weeks of continuousfortifiedporidgeintake. Note: Impact parameterestimate for separate impact estimatesraneachweek. Lowesssmoothingfunctionusedacrossestimates. Daheslines are 95% confidence interval
Research Plan Highlight: Testing Incentives for Aflatoxin Control • Research Goal: To test the demand for maize that meets an aflatoxin standard and the profitability of a certification system • Collaboration with Cereal Miller’s Association of Kenya • 3rd party certified maize offered at different prices compared to untested maize • Information effects tested through random advertising campaigns
Looking Forward to 2015 and Beyond • What policies support healthy food systems? • Integrated policy studies in focus countries: • Value chains for nutrient rich foods • Nutrition information policies • Market institutions for food quality • Price and agricultural investment policies
For more information on A4NH Value Chain Research: http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org/our-research/value-chains-for-enhanced-nutrition/ Thank you!