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Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment

Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment. ÁSGEIR JULIUSSON Periodical ： Scandinavian Journal of Psychology Latest impact factor ： 1.078. Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment. O utline ：. Terminology. Abstract. Design. Results. End.

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Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment

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  1. Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment ÁSGEIR JULIUSSON Periodical：Scandinavian Journal of Psychology Latest impact factor：1.078

  2. Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment

  3. Outline： Terminology Abstract Design Results End

  4. Terminology • cognition and Neurosciences：认知和神经系统科学 • escalation of commitment：承诺升级 • the assumption of the manipulation：控制论 • sunk cost：沉没成本 • decision making：决策 • empirical research：经验主义的研究

  5. Terminology • A has been termed B： A的术语叫做B • paradigm：范式 • R&D funds：研发资金 • overgeneralization of a “don’t waste” decision rule：“不浪费”决策规则的过度泛化 • prospect theory：前景理论 • risk seeking：风险追寻

  6. Terminology • mental budgeting：心理账户 • the context of an investment：投资情境 • gain-maximizing decision goal：获益最大化的决策目标 • loss-minimizing decision goal：损失最小化的决策目标 • A has been operationalized as：A的操作定义是…

  7. Terminology • in the present study：在本研究中 • investment scenarios：投资情境 • induce optimism/pessimism：诱发乐观/悲观 • loss aversion：损失规避 • ambiguous probabilities：不确定的概率 • net return：净利润

  8. Terminology • A as modifier of B ：A是B的调节变量 • mean age：平均年龄 • in different random orders：顺序是随机的 • an equal number was randomly assigned to：等量随机分配到… • preference ratings：偏好等级 • manipulation check：检验控制 • be highly correlated：有较高的相关

  9. Terminology • Cronbach’s alpha：克朗巴赫α系数 • A yielded a significant main effect：A的主效应显著 • a 2 by 2 factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA)：2×2的方差分析 • mixed factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures：重复测量的混合方差分析

  10. Terminology • reliability：信度 • paired-samples t-tests：配对样本t 检验 • a significant effect of the interaction between A and B：A和B的交互作用显著

  11. Abstract_1 • To study whether optimism-pessimism modifies escalation of commitment, 52 undergraduates were told that they had made an unsuccessful investment, then they chose to continue or discontinue this investment. • 为了研究乐观和悲观对承诺升级是否有调节作用，52名大学生被告知他们已经做了一向不成功的投资，然后让他们选择是继续还是停止这项投资。

  12. Abstract_2 • Optimism about future returns was induced in one group by varying the probability of a successful outcome from an initial low to medium, pessimism was induced in another group by varying this probability from an initial high to medium. 一组被试对于未来回报抱有乐观的态度，是通过成功的概率从低等上升到中等的投资材料诱发出来的。相反，给予悲观的被试的成功概率是从高等下降到中等。

  13. Abstract_3 • Supporting the assumption of the manipulation, the results showed that optimistic participants preferred to continue investments whereas pessimistic participants preferred not to. • 实验结果支持了控制论的假设，乐观的被试更喜欢继续投资，而悲观的被试会停止继续投资。

  14. Abstract_4 • As predicted, when the sunk cost increased, optimism led to escalation of commitment, whereas pessimism led to de-escalation of commitment. These effects were strengthened when probability of a successful outcome was ambiguous. • 正如假设的那样，沉没成本升高，乐观的被试会出现承诺升级，悲观的被试不会。当成功概率是不确定的时候这个效应会更明显。

  15. Design Optimism Escalation of commitment Sunk cost Success probability 2（乐观/悲观）× 2（沉没成本高/低）×2（成功概率确定/不确定）的方差分析

  16. Result

  17. Result_1 • Optimism-pessimism modified investment decisions and escalation of commitment:Participantswho were optimistic about future returns preferredto continue investment ，thus leading to escalation of commitment.

  18. Result_2 • The interactionbetween optimism and sunk cost approachedsignificance:sunk cost had different effects on optimistic than pessimistic participants, increasing the former’s preference for continuing investment and decreasing the latter’s preference for continuing investment.

  19. Result_3 • The interaction between optimism and ambiguous probability was close to significant:Ambiguous probabilities more than exact probabilities tended to increase optimistic participants’ preference for continuing investment, and to decrease pessimistic participants’ preference for continuing investment.

  20. Think about the following questions: 1.How to write a title? 2.How to write an abstract for a manuscript? 3.How to introduce the problem? How to explore importance of the problem? How to describe the relevant scholarship? How to state hypotheses and their correspondence to research design?

  21. 4. How to describe participant characteristics? What is the sample ? What is the research design? 5. How to manipulate or intervene the experiment? 6. How to make statistics and analyze data ?

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