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Effectiveness of sentencing

Effectiveness of sentencing. July 2011. 1. criminal justice system. 2. current thinking. 3. statistical methods. 4. results + implications. 1. criminal justice system. 2. current situation. 3. statistical methods. 4. results + implications. 1. criminal justice system.

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Effectiveness of sentencing

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  1. Effectiveness of sentencing July 2011

  2. 1. criminal justice system 2. current thinking 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications

  3. 1. criminal justice system 2. current situation 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications

  4. 1. criminal justice system 2. current situation 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications

  5. 1. criminal justice system 2. current situation 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications

  6. 1. criminal justice system

  7. 1. criminal justice system idiot’s guide

  8. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness

  9. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness

  10. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness

  11. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness

  12. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness

  13. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness

  14. court non-custodial out of court cautions fines other court orders reprimands warnings community orders police suspended sentence orders

  15. court non-custodial out of court cautions fines other court orders reprimands warnings police requirements

  16. court non-custodial out of court cautions fines other court orders reprimands warnings probation police

  17. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police prison seriousness

  18. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police prison seriousness

  19. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings police probation prison seriousness

  20. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police seriousness

  21. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police seriousness

  22. court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police seriousness

  23. 2. current situation

  24. 2. current situation 2008

  25. 2. current situation 2008 before this work

  26. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  27. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  28. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  29. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  30. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  31. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  32. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  33. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  34. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  35. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  36. however

  37. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  38. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  39. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  40. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate comparisons not valid 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  41. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate similar offenders 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  42. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate similar offenders 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  43. comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate similar offenders 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate

  44. 3. statistical methods

  45. 3. statistical methods ideally randomised control trial

  46. 3. statistical methods ideally randomised control trial well constructed matched groups

  47. two methods

  48. two methods exact matching

  49. two methods exact matching propensity score model

  50. propensity score matching

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