The 2004 Challenge

1. Al From Founder and Chief Executive Officer Democratic Leadership Council June 20, 2001 www.ndol.org Closing the Culture Gap The 2004 Challenge

2. Political Parity The Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength

3. Parties at Parity The Reasons  The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate  The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing  A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

4. PERIODDOMINANT VOTERS Industrial Era Working Class ---------------------------------------------------- Information Age Rising Learning Class ----------------------------------------------------- The New Electorate

5. An Affluent Electorate Characteristics of 2000 Voters

6. Educational Attainment Percentage of voters with a college degree

7. Diversity

8. From City to Suburb Percentage of Statewide Vote

9. Wired Voters Percentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

10. Generational Change In the 2000 Election  Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters.  The dominant generations are the “skeptical generations”— the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.

11. Political Views

12. The New Democrat Philosophy America’s Basic Bargain  Opportunity for All  Responsibility from All  Community of All

13. The New DemocratPhilosophy Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook Empowering Government Mutual Responsibility Traditional Values Core Principles

14. The Middle Class Challenge Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

15. The Middle Class Challenge 2 Democratic Vote by Educational Level

16. Missing the Mark Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000

17. Missing the Target The Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000 Post Grad College Grad Some College High School Grad HS Dropout Over 100K 75 - 100K 50 – 75K 30 – 50K 15 – 30K Under 15K

18. Message Matters (All Voters) If a candidate for President said this, would it have made you Much More/ much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or More Less much less likely to vote for them for President? Likely Likely Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely” 46 79/15 I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America. 41 78/15 , demands opportunity for all I believe in an America that offers responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a government that equips all Americans with the tools they need for economic success. 41 70/24 I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and big . people v. the powerful tobacco. This election is about the

19. Message Matters Key Voter Categories—Much More Likely Gore Bush Bush Voters Voters Swing Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44 People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32

20. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin by Race

21. The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 - 1 - 10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 - 3 - 11 - 24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 - 1 +6 White 81 - 1 - 3 - 12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 - 9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24

22. The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 - 1 - 2 - 9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 - 3 Married/Child 31 - 15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 - 8 +11 Gun Owner 48 - 13 (37) - 25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 - 2 Attend/Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly - 27 Weekly 28 (42) - 12 - 17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 White Cath 25/whites +5 +7 - 7 +14

23. The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23) - 30 (25) - 25 - 40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9) - 39 (12) - 45 - 52 +7 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 - 48 - 51 - 64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 - 1 Republican 35 - 63 - 67 - 83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 - 2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 - 22 (55) - 30 (52) - 46 +16

24. The Swing States GOP Base Swing States Demo Base

25. The Swing States: Electoral Votes Democratic Base Republican Base In Play States Dems Won States Reps Won States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 1992, 1996 & 2000 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes Electoral Votes Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 State 20 00 2004 State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Alabama 9 9 Arizona 8 10 Connecticut 8 7 Alaska 3 3 Arkansas 6 6 Delaware 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Colorado 8 9 D.C. 3 3 Indiana 12 11 Florida 25 27 Hawaii 4 4 Kansas 6 6 Georgia 13 15 Illinois 22 21 Mississippi 7 6 Kentucky 8 8 Iowa 7 7 Nebraska 5 5 Louisiana 9 9 Maine 4 4 N. Car 14 15 Missouri 11 11 Maryland 10 10 N. Dakota 3 3 Montana 3 3 Mass 12 12 Oklahoma 8 7 Ne vada 4 5 Michigan 18 17 S. Car 8 8 N. Hamp 4 4 Minnesota 10 10 S. Dakota 3 3 Ohio 21 20 New Jersey 15 15 Texas 32 34 Tennessee 11 11 N. Mexico 5 5 Utah 5 5 W.Virginia 5 5 New York 33 31 Virginia 13 13 Oregon 7 7 Wyoming 3 3 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260 Total 135 135 Total 136 143

26. Closing the Cultural Gap Lessons From the Clinton Victories  Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution  Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare  Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government  Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents Raise Kids  Support a Strong National Defense  Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like Abortion or Guns

27. The Winning Coalition in 2004 A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century  Expand Beyond the Democratic Base  Men and Women  Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic  Urban and Suburban  Moderates as well as Liberals  Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”