Global Impacts Ashok Gadgil Faculty Senior Scientist and Acting Director, EETD and

1. Global Impacts Ashok GadgilFaculty Senior Scientist and Acting Director, EETD and Professor of Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley February 2, 2010

2. Energy for Developing Countries--Why should we bother?

3. Human Development Index (HDI)Experts, convened by the UN, constructed a consensus quantitative measure of human wellbeing. The three broad areas covered are:1. Enlarging people’s choices through prosperity,2. Leading long and healthy lives, and3. Acquiring knowledgeHDI values for all countries are published by the UN annually, and are also posted on the web. Range is 0 (min) to 1 (max)

5. Human Development Index vs. Electricity consumption 1.0 Human Development Index (HDI) 0 5000 10,000 1,5000 20,000 0 There is relentless pressure from the bottom towards a better life

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8. Source: IPCC, AR4, 2007 Emissions 45.7% Emissions 54.3% In addition, most of anthropogenic CO2 stock in the air is from Annex 1

9. Developing countries’ question:“The atmosphere is a global commons.We too need head-room to improve our livelihoods.We didn’t put most of the GHG that is there now. What about us?!”

10. Potential for reductions at various CO2 prices – Total 24 Gt CO2/yr by 2030. Contribution by economic sectors and regions Source: IPCC, AR4, 2007 • Estimates are for 2005-2030 and are based on bottom-up studies • Estimates do not explicitly include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

11. Source: IPCC, AR4, 2007

12. Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment (RDD&D) agenda for Energy EfficiencyTwo orthogonal slices to approach: 1. Multiple pathways to engage the developing countries 2. Multiple economic strata at which their goals need to be addressed

13. Two pronged approach (same as for us): - Decarbonize energy sources, and - Greatly improve energy efficiency The second will yield far quicker results than the first (again same as for us).

14. Multiple pathways for Energy Efficiency:-> Innovate technologies to address their desperate energy problems (e.g., stoves, drinking water)-> Accelerate the demonstration, deployment and transfer of successful technologies (e.g., buildings, motors, Compact Fluorescent Lamps, industrial energy efficiency)-> Transfer and adapt successful policies to their energy systems (e.g, Demand Side Management)

15. Address multi-level economic strata for Energy Efficiency:-> Often people in top economic tier live like an average affluent country households (e.g., with air-conditioners, refrigerators, cars, lighting)-> The bottom economic tier often lacks electricity, safe drinking water, adequate shelter, health care etc. (so innovations can meet their desperate needs)

16. Some illustrative examples

17. Potential partner divisions: Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD) Computational Research Division (CRD) Materials Sciences Division (MSD) Stoves

18. photo by Mark Jacobs

19. photo by Mark Jacobs

20. Cookstoves About 2B people cook on solid fuels, mostly with stoves of low efficiency. Most of sub-Saharan Africa cooks on simple three-stone fires of very low efficiency Photo by Mark Jacobs

21. Cookstoves Three stone fires are 5-7% efficient! So, it is possible to engineer a better stove that is more efficient and affordable Darfur three-stone fire

22. Cookstove Efficiency Fuel-efficiency of a cookstove depends on 5 factors: • Skill of the cook tending the fire • Fuelwood characteristics • Stove characteristics • Shape of the pot, (and its fit to the stove) • Kind of food being cooked (and the method of cooking)

23. Fuel Efficient Stoves designs Several dozen well-designed efficient biomass cookstoves already exist. Much ongoing research for past decades in many countries. Some examples of fuel efficient stoves:

24. Weaknesses in global stoves research (1) world-class engineering science systematically applied to stove designs (2) attention to user feedback (3) independent field verification of stove performance

25. There are ~ 500M stoves in use If we can reduce emissions from each by ~1 tonne of CO2-e per year, we are half way to a Gigatonne

26. Stopping soot emissions will have a rapid effect!

27. Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD) In collaboration with all other Divisions with applications to Developing Countries Current funding in EETD = ~ $10M per year Policy

28. Art Rosenfeld (1973) Per Capita Electricity in the U.S. and California (1960-2001) kWh 14,000 Formation of EETD, LBL 12,000 12,000 U.S. 10,000 8,000 8,000 KWh 7,000 California 6,000 California Policy on Decoupling for Investor Owned Utilities 4,000 2,000 0 1976 2000 1994 1996 1998 1992 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

29. EETD is advising China and India on policies to promote energy efficiency in their economies. MOUs are in place with top decision making bodies, with regular exchanges and advisory visits.

30. The Opportunities in India and China China India 8.5%/yr growth Zero Net Energy Commercial Buildings Initiative Rapid Growth in Commercial Building Floor Area in China and India • DOE and CPUC Goals: • Reduce energy consumption, by 2030 by: • 80-90% In all newly constructed commercial buildings • 50% with retrofits to existing commercial buildings • Saturation to • 50% of the commercial building stock by 2040 • All commercial buildings by 2050

31. The Challenge Measured to Design Ratio Towards Zero-Net Energy Analysis of 121 LEED-Rated Buildings Low-to-Medium Energy-Use-Intensity Buildings Building codes are for Design Performance, NOT based on Measured Performance. • Gaps • Lack of Measurements & Policies Requiring it • Fragmentation of Process: Design, Build, Delivery, Operation • Fragmentation of Market EUI in kBTU/sq.ft.-yr M. Frankel, “The Energy Performance of LEED Buildings,”presented at the Summer Study on Energy Efficient Buildings, American Council of Energy Efficiency Economy, Asilomar Conference Center, Pacific Grove, CA, August 17-22, 2008.

32. Systems Approach to Whole Building IntegrationCooperation between Sub-Systems to Reduce Overall Energy Consumption HVAC Windows & Lighting Appliances Building Materials Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment Onsite Power & Heat Thermal & Electrical Storage Integrated Building Design & Operating Platform Physical Science & Engineering, Architecture, Information Science & Technology

33. EETD software and expertise has helped in developing the recently-announced energy efficiency targets for Indian building

34. Another Policy Success in the U.S.

35. EETD has very substantially participated and helped with appliance standard setting process in China

36. Access to Electricity is critically important (some would say essential) for reduced drudgery and improved human livelihood

37. LED Lighting could displace 400MT C emissions annually Photos of street shop selling slippers, taken with identical exposure and aperture, on a street in Tanzania The lower photo shows illumination with LED (30 lumens per electric watt), using 100 times less primary energy than the upper photo (0.1 lumen per fuel watt) Photos by Evan Mills

38. 1.6 Billion people still lack access to electricity! Can we take on a technology challenge to produce 1 kWh per person per day of electricity affordably and robust enough for communities in a developing country? With energy efficient end-use appliances, this could leap-frog over the high C-emission trajectory everyone has followed so far Technical and economic analysis of the financial implications suggests this is affordable!

39. An example of Leveraging Berkeley’s Expertise: India BIJLEE and RISE BIJLEE: Berkeley India Joint Leadership in Energy and Environment RISE: Research Institute started in India -- to mirror LBNL’s Foundry, to reflect Indian side of Science Tech. and Policy collaboration with Berkeley

40. Key Players in BIJLEE R. Ramesh, Professor of MSE and Physics, UC Berkeley Materials Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory A. Gadgil, Professor of CEE and Environment and Energy Technology Division Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory J. Sathaye Environment and Energy Technology Division Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory S. Shankar Sastry, Dean, College of Engineering Professor, EECS

41. RISE: Vision and Expected Outcomes • Become the Premier Energy Science and Technology Institute in India, globally competitive (models: Bell Labs, LBNL, …) • $20M per year -- public+private partnership from Indian side • Create Science and Technology: Become the Knowledge Engine • Creating Intellectual Property: Transitioning Science to Technology • Create Value from Intellectual Property: Start-ups in India • Impact Policy through Technology: Become the prime energy advisory group to the country

42. Initiatives within RISE Storage Thermal Storage Batteries Conversion Solar Energy to Electricity, Fuel • Supply and Demand • Conversion • Efficiency • Storage • Transport Efficiency Lab Research: Thermoelectrics Efficiency Systems Research: Smart Green Buildings Policy and Market Transformation Clean Energy – Power Sector

43. Explore Science and Technology of Matter within the broad Energy Framework Exploit basic science to stimulate device technologies Creative Partnerships Berkeley National labs, academia, industry, India Science, Technology and Energy Policy

47. Questions?