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As We May Think

As We May Think. Vannevar Bush Presented by: Eylon Caspi <eylon@eecs> AJ Shankar <aj@eecs> Jingtao Wang <jingtaow@eecs> CS294 Reading The Classics 9/21/04. Agenda. Background of Vannevar Bush and “As We May Think” Technological Predictions Memex Limitations, Mispredictions, Lessons.

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As We May Think

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  1. As We May Think Vannevar Bush Presented by: Eylon Caspi <eylon@eecs> AJ Shankar <aj@eecs> Jingtao Wang <jingtaow@eecs> CS294 Reading The Classics 9/21/04

  2. Agenda • Background of Vannevar Bush and“As We May Think” • Technological Predictions • Memex • Limitations, Mispredictions, Lessons

  3. Bio – early year highlights • Born on March 11, 1890, in Chelsea, Massachusetts.He had two sisters • Educated at Tufts College, graduated in 1913 • Worked for General Electric and was laid off after a fire • Started teaching position at Clark University in 1914 • Earned his doctorate in engineering in less than a year from MIT • Got faculty position at Tufts and later at MIT

  4. Bio – before WWII • Analog computers at MIT, 1930s • Differential analyzer – 1930 • Claude Shannon was one of his student at that time • Became the president of the Carnegie Institute in 1937 • Microfilm Rapid Selectorat MIT, 1938-40

  5. Bio – during the war • Created military research • NDRC ‘40, OSRD ‘41-47 • Managed nuclear weapons research throughout the 40’s • Manhattan Project • Wrote “science - the endless frontier” 1945

  6. Post-WWII • Military consultant through 50’s • Recommended the creation of NSF • The Vannevar Bush Award was created by the National Science Foundation in 1980 • After WWII, Bush continued to push for analogue computers (and against digital).

  7. Bush on the Role of Science Master the Environment Knowledge, Communication

  8. Technological Predictions • Acquisition • Instant photography, dictation • Storage • Unlimited image storage in microfilm • Calculation / Automation • Fully automatic accounting (point-of-sale, billing) • Electric, fast • Programmable • Data entry job • Symbolic logic + math (à la Mathematica) • Retrieval • Rapid selection via index (card, film, or magnetic index) • Information workstation: Memex • Hyperlinks • Neural Interfaces

  9. Bush’s Memex • Store publications, correspondence, personal work, on microfilm • Items retrieved rapidly using index codes • Builds on “rapid selector” • Can annotate text with margin notes, comments • Can construct a trail through the material and save it • Roots of hypertext • Acts as an external memory

  10. Memex Limitations • Basic unit of content is an image page • No links to/from sub-text • No digital content • No keyword search, only TOC/index codes • No networking • No rapid info sharing, live docs, subscriber model • Economical? • Free libraries, starving academicians • Technical challenges unsolved (dry photography, tape robots) • Still no user trails today

  11. Mispredictions • Underestimated… • Rise of digital (Bush’s student Claude Shannon) • Networking (Rapid information sharing, content subscriber model) • Role of science in entertainment(as driver, beneficiary) • vannevar: /van'@·var/, n: • a bogus technological prediction,esp. due to overestimating a challenge

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