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New Jersey ENERGY STAR Homes Impact Study – Design, Progress, Schedule. 2008 ACI Home Performance Conference David Carroll, APPRISE 4/11/2008. Presentation Outline. Disclaimer Study Goals Program Design Context Measurement Approach Measurement Issues Study Design Study Progress/Schedule

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new jersey energy star homes impact study design progress schedule

New Jersey ENERGY STAR HomesImpact Study – Design, Progress, Schedule

2008 ACI Home Performance Conference

David Carroll, APPRISE

4/11/2008

presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • Disclaimer
  • Study Goals
  • Program Design Context
  • Measurement Approach
  • Measurement Issues
  • Study Design
  • Study Progress/Schedule
  • Summary

2

disclaimer promise
Disclaimer & Promise
  • Do not sit here for 30 minutes to get the study results. They won’t be presented today.
  • But … at the end of the session I will collect business cards from those still here and will send the published report when it is made public.

3

study goals
Study Goals
  • Measure Gross Impacts
  • Assess Variations by Market Segment
  • Assess Variations by Measure Package
  • Measure Freeridership
  • Measure Spillover
  • Propose Revisions to Deemed Savings Protocols

4

program design context
Program Design Context
  • NJ New Homes Market – Dominated by development home (25 – 250 homes)
  • Smart Growth – State designates growth areas and has eliminated program incentives for areas not designated for growth
  • Residential HVAC Program – Allows builders to get incentives for HVAC upgrades

5

program design context1
Program Design Context
  • Builder Types
    • ENERGY STAR / All Homes / Certified
    • ENERGY STAR / All Homes / Not Certified
    • ENERGY STAR / Some Homes
    • Not ENERGY STAR / Residential HVAC
    • Nonparticipant

6

measurement approach
Measurement Approach
  • Projected to Actual
    • Compare REMRate projections to billing data
  • Participants to Nonparticipants
    • Compare billing data for participants to billing data for nonparticipants
  • Segment Analysis
    • Compare usage data for matching homes (type, size, price, demographics)

7

measurement issues
Measurement Issues
  • Projected / Actual
    • Homeowners are not participants
    • Utilities are not study sponsors
    • Billing data release requires signature
  • Participant / Nonparticipant
    • Levels of participation
    • Spillover to nonparticipating projects
  • Segment Level Analysis
    • Information on nonparticipating homes

8

study design
Study Design
  • Data Collection / Participants
    • Sample Frame: Program Databases
    • Sample: Two-Stage Sample: Projects/Homes
    • Mail Survey: Housing Unit Data, Household Data, Energy Behaviors, Authorization Form
    • Utility Data Retrieval
    • REMRate Data Retrieval

9

study design1
Study Design
  • Data Collection / NonParticipants
    • Sample Frame: Hanley-Wood Database
    • Sample Selection:
      • Identify ENERGY STAR projects
      • Match nonparticipating projects (Purposive Sample)
      • Balance participating/nonparticipating builders
      • Identify project addresses
      • Assess Residential HVAC participation
    • Mail Survey / Utility Data Retrieval

10

study design2
Study Design
  • Free Riders
    • Rating of Initial Submission
    • Some Potential / Limited Success
  • Spillover
    • Analysis
      • Certified ENERGY STAR
      • Noncertified by ENERGY STAR builders
      • Nonparticipating Builders
    • Note: Partially dependent on Free Rider analysis

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study progress
Study Progress
  • Complete
    • ENERGY STAR Mail Survey
    • ENERGY STAR Utility Data
    • REMRate Data
  • In Process
    • ENERGY STAR Analysis
    • Nonparticipating Mail Survey

12

study progress1
Study Progress
  • Scheduled
    • Nonparticipating Utility Data
    • Comparison Analysis
  • Target Dates
    • Data Collection Complete – 5/1
    • ENERGY STAR Analysis – 5/15
    • Comparison Analysis – 6/1
    • Draft Report – 6/15

13

summary
Summary
  • Limited Information – There have been few ENERGY STAR Homes Impact Studies / Available studies have ambiguous results.
  • Importance of Context – An ENERGY STAR homes impact study has to be designed in the context of program implementation and available resources for development of comparisons

14

summary1
Summary
  • Study Accomplishments – We have demonstrated that one can implement this study design.
  • Open Question – We have yet to demonstrate that all of these carefully designed procedures will yield the information that we seek.

15

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David Carroll

APPRISE

609-252-8010

david-carroll@appriseinc.org

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