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Future Of Transportation…

Future Of Transportation…. Its Electrifying!. Ed Kjaer Director Electric Transportation. Background- SCE Service Territory. 50,000 square miles 4.5 million customers 21,000 MW summer peak demand 20% renewables generation mix $11b revenue. Majority of emissions from mobile sector. VOC.

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Future Of Transportation…

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  1. Future Of Transportation… ItsElectrifying! Ed Kjaer Director Electric Transportation

  2. Background- SCE Service Territory • 50,000 square miles • 4.5 million customers • 21,000 MW summer peak demand • 20% renewables generation mix • $11b revenue

  3. Majority of emissions from mobile sector VOC GHG NOX Other 58% Mobile 42% Source: SCAQMD & CEC Background- SCE Service Territory Greater South Coast Air Basin • 4-county region in CA • 16 million people- projecting 15% increase by 2010 • 261 thousand diesel vehicles • 9 million gasoline vehicles • 80 + Truck stops • One major sea port • Four major air ports

  4. Overview of Auto industry Trends in US

  5. US “oil addiction” 60+ % imported China & India Middle East volatility …Are we too reliant? Oil…Its In The “Driver’s” Seat Resulting in $75 barrel… $100 by ? $3+ @ pump… $4+ by ?

  6. Driving down SUV Sales

  7. Driving Down SUV Sales • January- a new Tahoe SUV- av. 7 days on lot and av. transaction price = $42,191 • Today same Tahoe SUV- av. 62 days on lot and av. Transaction price = $37,667 source: Automotive News August 7 • Consumers are moving away from SUVs to smaller cars in what he characterizes as a "tectonic shift". Source:Mark Fields, Ford

  8. Driving Up Fuel Economy Advertising

  9. And Going Green… Research shows that 70% of Americans are now "very concerned" with the environment and that fuel efficiency is one of three most important factors in influencing people's choice of cars.Source: Ford

  10. Celebrity Endorsements!

  11. And Waving the Flag!

  12. Growing call for domestic alternative fuel Recognizing electricity as an alt. fuel Oil’s Driving Growth of Alternative Fuels

  13. But The Real News Is Hybrids Source: Toyota

  14. Global Hybrid Sales Source: Toyota

  15. Toyota Hybrid Leadership • “I truly believe Toyota CAN BE part of the solution to the great issues of our times... issues like energy independence...air pollution...health care...safety...and global warming.” • “Hybrid technology can be teamed with every other promising technology to make it even more efficient and fuel-stingy...whether its high-tech gas engines...clean diesels...bio-diesel...ethanol...plug-in hybrids...or hydrogen fuel cells.” • “At Toyota, alone, we're spending an average of $22.7 million PER DAY on research and development.” Jim Press, Pres. Toyota North America

  16. Its More Than Just The Oil…Its About Sustainability

  17. Which is Driving A PHEV National Movement-

  18. Including The Auto “Ecoist” Today’s auto “Ecoist” v 60’s “enthusiast” (mpg v speed)

  19. …Part Of A Fundamental Convergence Increasingly Transportation Is Becoming “Electricity” Powered Hybrid vehicles today; Plug-in-Hybrids and fuel cell vehicles tomorrow Electrification at marine ports, truck facilities, airports, and rail yards Electric goods movement equipment

  20. Capacity, load management safety, energy efficiency …And Bigger Than Just Our Cars

  21. ICEHEVPHEVBEV/FCEV Increasingly We’re using “Electricity” For Efficiency

  22. Plugging In To Our Future

  23. Benefiting From The Grid

  24. Grid Versus Gasoline “Electricity”

  25. Grid Electricity- CO2 “Well to Wheels” CA – average = 250 – 300 grams per kWh CA - marginal today = 330 grams per kWh and US in 2050 CA in 2050 = about 150 grams per kWh

  26. State Of PHEV Technology

  27. …And Automaker Response? • “Today, we are pursuing a "plug-in" hybrid vehicle that can travel greater distances without using its gas engine...conserving more oil AND slicing smog and greenhouse gases to nearly imperceptible levels.” Toyota • “We are very keenly looking at it and working with that technology.” Bill Ford • “General Motors, losing sales to fuel-efficient cars from Toyota Motor, is developing a hybrid- electric vehicle with a battery that recharges at any outlet, GM executives familiar with the plan said”

  28. SCE Leadership

  29. SCE Leadership- Hydrogen

  30. SCE’s Leadership- EV Technical Center (EVTC)

  31. SCE’s Vision- Near Term Energy Batteries

  32. SCE’s Vision- Future “Smart” Meters (AMI)

  33. SCE Vision- Long Term Vehicle To Grid (V2G)

  34. MY PHEV “Crystal Ball”

  35. Conclusions to “avoid” it! • Oil is driving our future… • Energy Security plus Environment • Hybridization is a nexus to all other “alternative” technologies • Energy Storage (batteries) is a nexus for mobile and stationary system “sustainability

  36. Conclusions

  37. A Final Thought Brazil may have a unique opportunity… • You have an existing alt. fuel infrastructure • You have a dominance of renewable energy (Hydro) • Grid-connected transportation supported with bio-fuels could be key to your Energy Security and Environmental Future!

  38. Thank You…

  39. Activists At Work

  40. Diesel Has Challenges

  41. “Electricity”- Pathway to Efficiency

  42. Next Generation Prius- With a Plug?

  43. Our Fuel Economy- Not Good Enough

  44. The Tesla Beauty- More Than Skin Deep

  45. Energy Choices for Transportation

  46. EVs at SCE Since 1990

  47. Heavy Duty HEV Evaluation

  48. SCE’s Hybrid EV Fleet Programs

  49. SCE’s Hydrogen Activities

  50. SCE AMI System

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