What do we Mean by Resilient Food System?. Mike Jones Resilience Alliance Connectors Program. Which is Most Resilient?. Agro-forestry. Industrial soybean.
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Resilience Alliance Connectors Program
Agro forestry looks resilient but much depends on nutrient recycling, developmental aspirations of the farmers, their culture and changes that may occur in the larger environment.
Industrial soybean looks like a “gilded trap” that creates financial wealth but is collapse waiting to happen. Multiple actors in the commodity chain are dependent. Resilience for whom is a big issue.
Which is best is the source of global political dog-fight.
Images from presentation by André Luiz R. Gonçalves
System collapse and game over for modern agriculture.
What comes next?
Images from: Brian Walker
Summary of “Thresholds of Potential Concern” in slow changing variables, the linkages between them and the potential shocks that may trigger them. Example from an agricultural landscape in Australia (Walker et al., 2009)
The restoration of a co-evolved system.
Collapse precipitated by a well intentioned but ill-conceived development intervention followed by renewal through traditional practice.
The “desert of Tanzania” in 1985
What disruptions will the future bring?
Does the system have sufficient resilience to persist and evolve?
Restoration of wooded savanna 2004
Attributes Related to Potential for Change
Social capital (trust, leadership, networks)
Attributes Related to Connectedness & Cross-scale Interaction
Overlap in governance
Ecosystem services are valued
1. Change within systems: Adaptive Cycle (Holling 2004)
3. Transitions betweensystem states: Ball and Basin (Scheffer et al., 2001)
2. Interactions between systems: Panarchy (Holling 2004)