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Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast. November 12, 2004. G REYSTAR. Greystar Offices . Regional Offices. Denver, CO. Charleston, SC (Headquarters). Phoenix, AZ. Dallas, TX. Jacksonville, FL. Austin, TX. Tampa, FL. Houston, TX. Ft. Lauderdale, FL.

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Presentation Transcript
slide2

Greystar Offices

Regional Offices

Denver, CO

Charleston, SC (Headquarters)

Phoenix, AZ

Dallas, TX

Jacksonville, FL

Austin, TX

Tampa, FL

Houston, TX

Ft. Lauderdale, FL

Regional Offices

Greystar Presence (Management, Construction or Investment)

National in Presence

Regional in Practice

four lines of business
Four Lines of Business

Property

Management

Greystar

Construction

Development

Investment

GREYSTAR

development
DEVELOPMENT
  • Develop with a national perspective and local expertise
  • Over $800 million of real estate developed over the last ten years
  • Product types include multifamily housing, office, industrial, retail and hotels

GREYSTAR

investment
INVESTMENT
  • Greystar sponsored investments approaching $2 Billion
  • One-stop shopping for investors, bypassing traditional investment advisors
  • Opportunistic. Create value at all stages of investment cycle and execute with in-house capabilities
  • Investment partners include Crow Holdings, JMI, Oregon Pension Fund, Goldman Sachs, Prudential, Recap, FNMA and Morgan Stanley

GREYSTAR

property management
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
  • Manage over 60,000 units
  • 12th largest property manager in nation (Source: NMHC)
  • 3rd largest third-party multifamily manager
  • 1,850 team members in 30 markets
  • 5 largest clients: Sendera, Invesco, Fannie Mae, Investment Associates, and Merrill Lynch

GREYSTAR

construction
CONSTRUCTION
  • Construction Volume: $150M
  • 90% 3rd party business
  • 10 % construction services for Greystar projects
  • Diverse product types: multifamily, senior living, hotels, and retail
  • $100 million in Bonding Capacity

GREYSTAR

slide8

GREYSTAR

Growth of the Real Estate Investment Market

  • Amount of Money in the Market
  • Stability of the Market
  • Historical Real Estate Returns
slide9

GREYSTAR

Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship

  • National
  • Denver
slide10

GREYSTAR

Investment Analysis Case Study

  • Yesterday’s Investment
  • Today’s Reality
  • Tomorrow’s Bet
slide11

GREYSTAR

The Future

  • The Rising Tide
slide12

GREYSTAR

Growth of the Real Estate Investment Market

  • Amount of Money in the Market
  • Stability of the Market
  • Historical Real Estate Returns
slide13

GREYSTAR

REITS – 1993 Vs. 2004

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

slide14

GREYSTAR

Capital Chasing Deals

Billions

+63.2%

Since January 97, the money supply has risen from $3.8 to $6.2 Trillion.

Source: Federal Reserve Board – M2

slide15

GREYSTAR

Public Securities And Real Estate Performance

S&P 500 Stock Index

NASDAQ Comp. Index

NAREIT REIT Index

NCREIF Property Index

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

slide16

GREYSTAR

Public Securities And Real Estate Performance

S&P 500 Stock Index

NASDAQ Comp. Index

NAREIT REIT Index

NCREIF Property Index

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

slide17

GREYSTAR

$100 Investment Performance - 1994 - 2004

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

slide18

GREYSTAR

10 – Year Treasury Yield

Source: Federal Reserve

slide19

GREYSTAR

Total U.S Sales Volume By Property Type

(Billions)

Source: Real Capital Analytics

slide20

GREYSTAR

Metro Denver Historical Real Estate Investment

(millions)

Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers

slide21

GREYSTAR

Metro Denver Historical Price per Square Foot

Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers

slide22

GREYSTAR

Historical Commercial Mortgage Flow

Source: Federal Reserve

slide23

GREYSTAR

Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship

  • National
slide24

GREYSTAR

National Cap Rates By Property Type

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

slide25

GREYSTAR

National Multifamily Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

slide26

GREYSTAR

National Multifamily Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Spread

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.6

4.5

2.6

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

slide27

GREYSTAR

National Office - CBD Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

slide28

GREYSTAR

National Office - CBD Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

3.0

2.6

2.9

Spread

2.8

4.4

5.4

3.5

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

slide29

GREYSTAR

National Industrial Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

slide30

GREYSTAR

National Industrial Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Spread

3.2

2.9

3.1

3.5

4.1

5.2

3.4

Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

slide31

GREYSTAR

Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship

  • National
  • Denver
slide32

GREYSTAR

Metro Denver Historical Cap Rates

Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers

slide33

GREYSTAR

Investment Analysis Case Study

  • Yesterday’s Investment
  • Today’s Reality
  • Tomorrow’s Bet
slide34

GREYSTAR

The Summit at Flatirons

  • 500 Units
  • 481,569 Total Square Feet
  • Average Unit: 963 Sq.Ft.
slide35

GREYSTAR

2000 Proforma

slide36

GREYSTAR

Today’s Reality

slide37

GREYSTAR

Tomorrow’s projection

slide38

GREYSTAR

Rising Tide

  • Interest Rates
  • Delinquency Rates
  • Cap Rates
  • Employment
slide39

GREYSTAR

Rising Tide

  • Interest Rates
slide40

GREYSTAR

One Month LIBOR Forecast

Source: Morgan Stanley

slide41

GREYSTAR

Rising Tide

  • Interest Rates
  • Delinquency Rates
slide42

GREYSTAR

Mortgage Delinquency Rates

Source: Freddie Mac

slide43

GREYSTAR

Rising Tide

  • Interest Rates
  • Delinquency Rates
  • Cap Rates
slide44

GREYSTAR

Rising Tide

  • Interest Rates
  • Delinquency Rates
  • Cap Rates
  • Employment
slide45

GREYSTAR

Metro Denver Employment Growth 1994 - 2003

Source: Metro Denver EDC