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TEMPEST WP1

TEMPEST WP1. Aims. Three main aims:- WP 1.1 Systematic assessment of CMIP5 cyclones. Atlantic-European sector. Verification against re-analyses. Response to climate change, RCP4.5, 8.5. Focus on extreme storms, winds and precip . Identify mechanisms for change with WP2 and 3. Aims.

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TEMPEST WP1

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  1. TEMPEST WP1

  2. Aims Three main aims:- • WP 1.1 Systematic assessment of CMIP5 cyclones. • Atlantic-European sector. • Verification against re-analyses. • Response to climate change, RCP4.5, 8.5. • Focus on extreme storms, winds and precip. • Identify mechanisms for change with WP2 and 3.

  3. Aims • WP1.2 Composite cyclone structures. • Explore composite structures of cyclones. • In particular moist processes. • Any changes with climate change. • WP1.3 Natural Variability • ACRE 100y re-analysis. • CMIP5, pre-industrial control, >500y . • Millennial, e.g. ECHAM5

  4. Methodology • Apply TRACK objective tracking. • Standard statistics, track, genesis, lysis densities. • Intensity distributions for properties along tracks, e.g. MSLP, winds, precip., vorticity. • Monte Carlo significance testing for verification/changes. • Cyclone compositing for structure and lifecycles; orientation and tilts. • Traditional analyses, e.g. Large scale.

  5. People TEMPEST • Giuseppe Zappa, post-doc; CMIP5 analysis. • Matt Hawcroft, PhD; diabatic processes, compositing. Associated • Robert Lee, PhD; Re-analyses, CMIP5 analysis. • Tom Philp, PhD; satellite observations and cyclones – re-analyses. • Adrian Champion, PhD; downscaling; DEMON.

  6. Previous Results Track Density Wind Speed ECHAM5 (925hPa) HiGEM (850hPa)

  7. Compositing 925hPa system relative winds ERA40 HiGEM

  8. Work So Far (Re-Analyses) ERAI-NCEP (Track density) ERAI-NCEP (Genesis density) QS v Interim (10m) Winds (925hPa)

  9. ATHENA (Synoptic) T159 - Interim T2047 - Interim MSLP 925hPa Winds 850hPa Vorticity

  10. ATHENA – Climate Change Track Density Differences T159, A1B-20C T1279, A1B-20C

  11. Downscaling

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