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Reefs as Habitats or Habitats for Reefs: Global-Scale Coral Reef Biogeography. Robert W. Buddemeier Casey J. McLaughlin Peder Sandhei Kansas Geological Survey and Department of Geography, University of Kansas. Acknowledgements:
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Reefs as Habitats or Habitats for Reefs:Global-Scale Coral Reef Biogeography
Robert W. Buddemeier
Casey J. McLaughlin
Kansas Geological Survey and Department
of Geography, University of Kansas
J. A. Kleypas, J.-P. Gattuso, B. A. Maxwell, D. G. Fautin, J. D. Bartley
NSF OCE-00-03970, ‘Biogeoinformatics of the Hexacorallia;’
National Coral Reef Insititute; IGBP-LOICZ; UNEP-GEF
Conceptual approach: Consider that reefs and communities have – and require – habitats or niches that overlap with but are not identical to the habitats or niches that these reefs and communities provide for the constituent organisms --- which are in most cases not unique to ‘reefs’ (sensu stricto).
Coral Reefs 21(1), 2002 – “Large-scale dynamics” issue
Changes in land-based stress are closely related to human population and land-use
Geospatial clustering provides classifications of coastal zone population density and related variables – first-order proxies for ‘onshore reef’ anthropogenic stresses
The inverse question – where might we find relatively pristine coastal environments for ‘baseline’ samples or possible preservation?
Relax the standards – to population density <100/km2 and <10% cropland
Most of Asia, all of Florida is still “gone” –
How do land-based stresses compare to and interact with more generalizable oceanic/climatic stresses?
The maximum temperature excursions of the late 1990s could be the mean conditions by 2010, and the lower limit of variation by 2020 – nearshore, short-term variability is likely to be higher than the global and oceanic.
Aragonite saturation state – “Holocene normal,’ with arbitrary but informed estimates of how much reef calcifiers care -- greener is better
Oceanic saturation states now – still green, but not as dark (nearshore values are likely to be different, probably lower)
With a doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration, wide areas remain ‘tolerable,’ few ‘good’ – how do these overlay with the human-derived near-shore stresses and other climatic factors?
2040-2060 mean ann. SST, w/present (gray line) and future (pink) 29o contour
density, ag land use
-- present values
In the Indo-West Pacific -- Australia, East Africa/Red Sea, and islands in the subequatorial southern hemisphere tropics look like the best bets from a pessimistic ‘triage’ viewpoint
What science-related questions and conclusions can we develop to tell us how justified the pessimism is?