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Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: Application for India

This study examines long-term technology strategies for global greenhouse gas stabilization with a focus on India's application. It delves into CO2 benchmarks, atmospheric stabilization emissions paths, resource issues, and regional economic growth implications as per the UNFCCC framework. The analysis includes reference case assumptions, population trends, and carbon storage reservoirs, with conclusions on venting carbon and fossil fuels. The research also discusses energy shares, emissions trends, and scenarios for India's future energy use and emissions.

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Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: Application for India

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  1. Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India P.R. Shukla

  2. THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC) Objective: ...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (p.5)

  3. BENCHMARKS___________________________ • CO2 Concentration • 275 ppmv in 1850 • 358 ppmv in 1994 • 1990 Anthropogenic Emissions Rate • Fossil Fuels=6.0 PgC/yr • Land-Use Change (deforestation)=1.3 PgC/yr

  4. ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION EMISSIONS PATHS Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  5. Global Emissions and Concentration Paths for Annex I Emissions Mitigation Concentrations Emissions Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  6. LONG-TERM RESOURCE ISSUES of the UNFCCC • Stranded Assets • Physical Capital • Fossil Fuel Resources • Ratio of Financial Flows/Economic Cost • Cost = $15-$30 billion • Tax Revenues = $150 billion • Non-Annex I Economic Development Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  7. REFERENCE CASE ASSUMPTIONS___________________________ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  8. REGIONAL POPULATION Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  9. REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP Per Capita GDP Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  10. NON-ANNEX I GRADUATION

  11. CARBON STORAGE RESERVOIRS Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  12. Stabilizing the Atmosphere: Some Conclusions • Free Venting of Carbon Must Eventually Be Phased Out, • But Not Necessarily Fossil Fuels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  13. GHG StabilizationAnalysis for India

  14. Global Energy Shares 1990 5.8 PgC/yr ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr

  15. Global Energy Shares 1990 5.8 PgC/yr ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr

  16. Energy Use in India

  17. Indian Energy Trends

  18. Indian Energy Intensity Trends

  19. Future Indian Emissions? India CBF Business As Usual 1990 Technology India CBF Ref India 550 Cumulative Emissions (1990 - 2095): Pg. CBF Reference :109India 550 : 63

  20. Filling the Indian GapAOG, Competitive Solution

  21. Filling the Indian GapAOG, Imperfect Institutions

  22. Filling the Indian Gap?

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