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Understanding Election Data and Voter Activation Network in Maryland

Explore how to access and utilize election data from the Maryland Board of Elections, including calculating a "Win Number" based on past election results. Learn about Voter Activation Network (VAN) and its uses in organizing efforts. Discover the valuable resources available to analyze voter turnout data and make informed decisions for political campaigns. Get involved and reach out for more information!

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Understanding Election Data and Voter Activation Network in Maryland

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  1. Election Data: Where To Find It, and How To Use It Presented by Justin Butler Presented by Justin Butler Organizing Director, Maryland Democratic Party Organizing Director, Maryland Democratic Party JButler@MDDems.org JButler@MDDems.org

  2. Overview Overview ● In this training, we will: ● Review how to access data available through the Maryland Board of Elections ● Learn how to read this data ● Utilize this data to calculate a “Win Number” ● Review VAN’s data inflow / outflow procedure ● Understand how VAN expands upon publicly available information for more efficient and effective organizing

  3. How To Find BoE Data How To Find BoE Data To begin, start your data dive at: https://www.elections.maryland.gov/elections/

  4. Election Results Election Results ● Select the election year you are seeking data on: -->

  5. Election Results Election Results ● From the individual year page, you can find the following: − General and Primary Election results by vote method OR County − Data files for General and Primary Election results by County OR Precinct ● Let’s take a guided tour….

  6. Turnout Data Turnout Data ● What is turnout data? ● What is turnout data useful for? ● Find the data tables at: https://www.elections.maryland.gov/press_room/ ● Find the election year you are seeking, and click the drop down menu for the relevant “Election Report” ● Let’s take a tour of the data…..

  7. Using Public Data To Determine Using Public Data To Determine Your “Win Number” Your “Win Number” ● What is a “Win Number?” − Art, not science − 50% + 1 (But always plan a cushion) ● How to calculate your “Win Number” − Determine how many votes would have been required to win in the last 3 elections for that office(50% + 1) − Add those 3 election’s 50% + 1 together, then divide by 3 − Note: You can overlay turnout data on election results to make a more accurate model, but that method is far more complex

  8. Using Public Data To Determine Using Public Data To Determine Your “Win Number” Your “Win Number” ● Example - 2022 Governor’s Race: Governor Total Votes 50% + 1 2010 928,940 464,470 2014 866,589 433,294 2018 1,152,256 576,128 ● Based on this simple model, we would have expected 982,595 voters to come out in 2022, with a win number of 491,297 ● Actual 2022 Vote Total: 1,002,612 ● Actual 2022 Win Number: 501,306 – 2% off

  9. Voter Activation Network Voter Activation Network - - (VAN) (VAN) ● Mikayla Salazar, MDP Voter File Manager ● MSalazar@MDDems.org ● What is VAN? ● Who gets VAN? ● Uses of VAN

  10. Voter Activation Network Voter Activation Network - - (VAN) (VAN) ● Problems VAN overcomes: − Provides current, and historical, data − Redistricting − Data overload − Data point storage − Data point sharing − Converting data into organizing ● Mapping ● Direct Voter Contact application capability

  11. Thanks For Your Time! Thanks For Your Time! ● Feel free to reach out with questions, or to get involved, at JButler@MDDems.org

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