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An Infotrak Harris Poll Kenyan Voters Perspective On The Proposed New Constitution Of Kenya. Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris Interactive Global Network May 2010. The Methodology. The Methodology.

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an infotrak harris poll kenyan voters perspective on the proposed new constitution of kenya
An Infotrak Harris PollKenyan Voters Perspective On The Proposed New Constitution Of Kenya

Prepared by

Infotrak Research & Consulting

A member of Harris Interactive Global Network

May 2010

the methodology1
The Methodology
  • A sample of 1200 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,000,000 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 3 The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya
  • The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural
  • Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya
  • Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews
  • The survey was conducted between 24th - 27th May, 2010
finding 1
Finding 1:

Nearly two thirds of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum are indeed aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

slide6

Approximately two thirds of those who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution

Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

  • Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum reported awareness of the proposed constitution
  • The lowest incidences of awareness were recorded in Eastern and Rift Valley provinces

Base 1200

more urban than rural residents are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of kenya
More urban than rural residents are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya
  • More males than females indicated that they were aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya
  • On the other hand, awareness level of the contents of the proposed new constitution is higher amongst urban dwellers (70%) as compared to rural (58%)

Base 420

Base 1200

Base 780

Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

slide8
The youth as compared to the older survey participants are more aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution

Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

  • Majority of the survey participants who are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution are in 18 – 44 yr age group

Base 1200

slide9
Survey participants with less education had low awareness with regard to the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya
  • Majority of those who were not conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution, reported to have attained only primary level of education

Are you conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

Base 1200

finding 2
Finding 2:

The media is the main source of information on the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

slide11

55% of Kenyans who are aware of the contents of the proposed constitution indicated that the media is their main source of information on the same

  • Besides the media, mentioned by more than half of Kenyans (55%) as their main source of information on the contents of the proposed constitution, 39% of survey respondents stated that they have indeed read the proposed new constitution of Kenya and therefore were aware of its contents

How did you get to know the contents of the proposed new constitution?

Base 792

finding 3
Finding 3:

Civic education will inform most of those who are currently not aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution on how to vote in the forthcoming referendum

slide13

Majority of the survey participants who are unaware of the contents of the proposed new constitution believe they will be informed by civic education

  • For those who are unaware of the contents of the proposed new constitution but intend to vote in the August 4th referendum, most indicated that civic education would inform how their vote

You have indicated that you are not conversant with the contents of the proposed new constitution. What then will inform your voting in the referendum?

Base 408

finding 4
Finding 4:

Eighty percent of Kenyans who intend participate in the August 4th referendum believe that the proposed new constitution is better than the current constitution

slide15
Majority of Kenyans (80%) believe the proposed new constitution is better than the current constitution

How would you compare the proposed new constitution with the current constitution?

  • Whilst majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August referendum feel that the proposed new constitution is better that the current constitution, 10% do not
  • As compared to other provinces, more Eastern and Rift Valley residents stated that the proposed new constitution is worse than the current constitution

Base 1200

slide16

Majority of survey participants stated that they would participate in the forthcoming referendum so as to ensure that Kenya gets a new constitution

You have indicated that you intend to vote in the August referendum. What are your reasons?

Base 1200

reasons for liking or disliking the proposed new constitution
Reasons for liking or disliking the proposed new constitution

You have indicated that you DO NOT intend to vote in the August 4th referendum, what are your reasons?

finding 5
Finding 5:

63% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum indicated they would vote YES for the proposed constitution of Kenya

slide19
Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum stated that they would vote YES for the proposed constitution

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

  • Majority of Kenyans who would participate in the forthcoming referendum exercise stated that they would vote YES while 21% indicated they would vote NO if the referendum was to be held today
  • On the other hand, the undecided constitute 16% of the survey respondents
  • Eastern and Rift Valley recorded the lowest incidence with regard to voting YES for the proposed new constitution

Base 1200

slide20
Majority of the males as compared to the females stated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

  • More males than females indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution of Kenya if the referendum was to be held today

Base 612

Base 588

Base 1200

slide21
Majority of those who would vote YES for the proposed new constitution if a referendum was held today are the youth

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

Base 1200

slide22

Whilst majority of Kenyans who are registered as voters intend to vote YES in the August, more rural than urban dwellers stated that they would vote NO

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?

  • More urban than rural dwellers indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution
  • On the other hand, more rural than urban residents stated that they would vote NO in if the referendum was to be held today

Base 1200

Base 420

Base 780

finding 6
Finding 6:

Majority of Kenyans who intend to participate in the referendum if it were to be held today would vote out of their own informed decisions

influences of voting patterns as reported by survey respondents
Influences of voting patterns as reported by survey respondents

Who/What has influenced you the most to vote ---- in the referendum on the proposed new constitution as stated above?

  • Majority of the survey respondents (56%) indicated that they would for or against the proposed new constitution out of their own consciousness

Base 1200

finding 7
Finding 7:

Approximately half of Kenyans who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum indicated that they DO NOT AGREE with the recent High Court ruling on Kadhi’s Courts

slide26
37% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum stated that they agree with the recent High Court ruling on Kadhi’s Courts

The High Court has delivered a ruling and declared the inclusion of the Kadhi's Courts in our current Constitution as unconstitutional. Do you agree with this ruling

  • Whilst approximately one half of Kenyans who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum said they do not agree with the ruling on Kadhi’s courts by the High Court, 37% on the other hand stated that they agree with the ruling; 14% were indecisive
  • Coast and North Eastern provinces recorded the lowest incidences with regard to supporting the recent ruling on Kadhi’s Courts

Base 1200

finding 8
Finding 8:

Approximately eight in ten of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum indicated that the High Court ruling on Kadhi’s Courts would not affect their decision on the proposed constitution

slide28

10% of those who intend to vote in the August referendum stated that the recent ruling on Kadhi’s Courts will indeed affect their decision on the proposed new constitution

Has the abovementioned ruling affected your decision on the proposed new constitution of Kenya?

  • Whilst majority of Kenyans who intend to vote stated that the recent ruling on Kadhi's courts has no effect on how they intend to vote in the August referendum, 10% said that it would affect their decision on the proposed new constitution while 12% were not sure
  • Across all regions, majority of the respondents reported not being affected by the ruling on Kadhi’s Courts

Base 1200

region
REGION

Base 1200

gender
GENDER

Base 1200

slide32
AGE

Base 1200

location
LOCATION

Base 1200

about infotrak1
About Infotrak
  • Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa.
  • The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand.
  • In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.