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The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought

The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought. Yi-Chih Huang. Sahel Drought (I). Nicholson et al. 2000. Dai et al. 2004. Sahel Drought (II). Todd Mitchell’s web page. GPCP. Global Precipitation climatology Project Data

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The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought

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  1. The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought Yi-Chih Huang

  2. Sahel Drought (I) Nicholson et al. 2000 Dai et al. 2004

  3. Sahel Drought (II) Todd Mitchell’s web page

  4. GPCP • Global Precipitation climatology Project • Data • 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from Jan 1979 to Sep 2009 • 1 x 1 degree grid from Oct 1996 to Jun 2009 • Created by merging • rain gauge data • Infrared estimates of precipitation • microwave satellite estimates of precipitation • Scattering : Wilheit et al. (1991) histogram approach • Emission : Grody (1991) scattering index

  5. CMAP • The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation • Data • on 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from 1979 to 2008 • pentad and monthly analysis • Sources • gauge observations • five kinds satellite estimates (IR-based GPI, OLR-based OPI, MSU, microwave scattering and microwave emission) • NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

  6. Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index Dalu, et al., 2009

  7. Precipitation in August 2000 (I)

  8. Precipitation in August 2000 (II)

  9. Precipitation in August 2000 (III)

  10. African Surface Temperature CAM v CRU

  11. African Surface Temperature DeparturesCAM v CRU

  12. Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v CRU

  13. African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

  14. African Surface Temperature CAM v NCEP

  15. African Surface Temperature Departures CAM v NCEP

  16. Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v NCEP

  17. African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

  18. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures CAM v CRU

  19. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

  20. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures CAM v NCEP

  21. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

  22. African Precipitation CAM v CRU

  23. African Precipitation Departures CAM v CRU

  24. RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v CRU

  25. African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

  26. African Precipitation CAM v NCEP

  27. African Precipitation Departures CAM v NCEP

  28. RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v NCEP

  29. African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

  30. Sahelian Precipitation Departures CAM v CRU

  31. Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

  32. Sahelian Precipitation Departures CAM v NCEP

  33. Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

  34. CAM Ensemble Tables

  35. Summary • Since late 1960’s precipitation in Sahelian region is almost persistently below the longterm mean • The patterns of mean CAM ensemble precipitation in August 2000 are very different from CRU, GPCP, CMAP and NCEP • CAM is Compared with CRU and NCEP • No ensemble run is in the groups with the least RMSE’s in both temperature and precipitation • Several runs are in groups with the largest RMSE’s in both temperature and precipitation in African and Sahelian domains

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