Download
1 / 37
370 likes | 473 Views
Interest Rate Monitor. June 16, 2013. Brief Overview. International. MENA Region. Egypt: Annual urban inflation grows to 8.2% in May. US: Yields dropped as traders said bets that Fed would slow stimulus as soon as its next meeting were overblown. GCC News Highlights.
E N D
Interest Rate Monitor June 16, 2013
Brief Overview International MENA Region Egypt: Annual urban inflation grows to 8.2% in May US: Yields dropped as traders said bets that Fed would slow stimulus as soon as its next meeting were overblown GCC News Highlights Eurozone: Growing uncertainty over global monetary policy trends prompted extreme volatility GCC interbank rates Comparative MENA Markets Japan: Yen rallies as investors reassess BOJ’s monetary policies Local Economy Markets overview New and analysis Major Indices: US stocks rebounded Friday on speculation that the Fed might not scale back QE • Inflation registers 7.0% in the first five months of the year Commodities and Currencies: Brent oil touched a 2M high over worries political unrest could disrupt supplies from the Middle East Markets overview Central Bank Meeting Calendar • Amman Stock Exchange Interest Rate Forecast • Local Debt Monitor The Week Ahead • Prime Lending Rates
Ten-year yields dropped this week as traders said bets that Fed would slow stimulus as soon as its next meeting were overblown • Treasuries rose, breaking the longest streak of weekly losses since 2009, amid skepticism the Federal Reserve is about to slow its bond-buying program designed to hold down borrowing costs and spur the economy. • Ten-year note yields dropped for the first week since April after reaching a 14-month high as investors weighed whether the economy is strengthening enough for policy makers to consider reducing their quantitative-easing stimulus, with more • U.S. 10-year yields fell four basis points to 2.13% this week. The benchmark yield climbed to 2.29% on June 11, the highest since April 2012, after reaching a 2013 low of 1.61% May 1.
Expectations of Fed Tapering continue to rattle markets • The world's financial markets are obsessed with just two things right now: the potential beginning of the end of the Federal Reserve's bond purchases and what Japan's currency is doing. • Ever since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted last month that the central bank may start slowing its stimulus program in just a "few meetings," it's been a bumpy ride for financial markets. • Stocks have had some wild swings and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has ticked slightly higher. Much of the volatility is due to confusion about what exactly Bernanke meant by a "few." • Other Fed officials have since discussed the issue further but have hardly cleared it up. Economists and strategists thought the slowdown process would begin at either the September or October meetings. • The central bank's stimulus program, known as quantitative easing, currently entails purchasing $45 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. The goal is to lower long-term interest rates, thereby making it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow money. • Bernanke and the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meet June 18-19, with expectations of some further clarifications on Wednesday.
IMF Sees Fed QE Through 2013, Warns of Exit Plan Challenges • The Fed has said it's looking for "substantial improvement" in the job market before it starts to wind down stimulus. But what does "substantial" mean? That's anyone's guess. The Fed has yet to lay out any specific goalposts for QE3. • What's also unclear is just how gradually the Fed will curtail the program. Will it start winding down in $5 billion increments? $10 billion? $20 billion? • The QE program is unlikely to come to a full stop until mid-2014, and actual tightening -- when the Fed starts to sell assets and raise short-term interest rates -- is not expected until mid-2015. (The Fed has specifically said that it thinks rates should remain "exceptionally low" as long as the unemployment rate is above 6.5%.) • Moreover, in its annual report published Friday, the International Monetary Fund sees the Federal Reserve maintaining large monthly bond purchases until at least the end of this year and urged the central bank to carefully manage its exit plan to avoid disrupting financial markets. • Unwinding QE “could have adverse global implications, including a reversal of capital flows to emerging markets and higher international financial market volatility,” the staff said in the report. • Concern is already showing, with almost $3 trillion that has been erased from the value of global equities since Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said May 22 the central bank could scale back stimulus efforts should the job market outlook show “sustainable improvement.”
IMF lowers its growth forecast and warns about federal budget cuts • The IMF lowered its 2014 growth outlook Friday and urged the US to repeal the huge federal budget cuts introduced this year, denouncing them as "excessively rapid and ill-designed". • It said the deficit reduction programme would be a drag on growth this year. • In its annual assessment of the U.S. economy, the fund kept its forecast for a slight cooling of growth this year to 1.9%, from 2.2% last year. But it cut its estimate for 2014 growth by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7% because of the automatic budget cuts that have crimped output. • The IMF pointed out that growth this year could be as much as 1.75 percentage points higher without the rapid tightening of fiscal policy. • Nevertheless, the IMF said the U.S. recovery is gaining ground and becoming more durable despite the headwinds created by federal budget battles. House prices and construction activity is rebounding, household balance sheets are strengthening and labor market conditions are improving, the fund said. • Still, Ms. Lagarde said the Fed should keep the monetary spigot open as “the economy has a way to go before it returns to full strength.” • She said the fund’s growth forecast assumes a “very slight decline” in the Fed’s bond-buying next year and that Congress agrees to more gradual near-term budget cuts than the current belt-tightening.
U.S. retail sales jump • U.S. consumers demonstrated a renewed willingness to consume in May, easing worries about a slowing economy heading into the summer. • Overall retail sales increased 0.6% last month, putting them 4.3% higher over the past year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The strong gain after two sluggish months returned consumer spending to a pace that has helped power much of the four-year-old recovery. • The resurgence in home values and rising stock prices have boosted consumer spirits and catalyzed spending. Consumers also are getting a boost from lower fuel costs. Gasoline prices rose slightly in May, but remain well below the nearly $4 per gallon reached last year. • Households' propensity to keep spending suggests the economy should strengthen later in 2013 after powering through strong headwinds. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of total demand in the U.S., was the overwhelming driver of growth early this year. • Many economic forecasters feared that January's increase in payroll taxes would constrain consumers and hit the brakes on the recovery. That didn't happen. • Overall economic growth is expected to remain moderate in the coming months as across-the-board government spending cuts, which started in March, filter through the economy.
U.S. industrial production struggles • U.S. industrial production held flat in May, the latest in a series of data indicating the country's factories are struggling. • Industrial output was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, while capacity utilization edged down to 77.6% from a revised 77.7% in April, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Both results were below expectations. • The report showed U.S. manufacturing output, a component of the overall industrial figure, increased just 0.1% in May after declining the two previous months. • The manufacturing sector has been stumbling of late after being an important driver at the start of the four-year-old economic recovery. Manufacturing employment has declined for three consecutive months, according to Labor Department data. Meanwhile, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management showed the sector contracted in May. • Within manufacturing, the biggest output decline came in defense and space equipment, which fell 0.7% in May—the fifth consecutive month the category failed to record a gain. The pullback likely reflects the across-the-board federal spending cuts that began in March and shows that the effects of the sequester are spilling over to other sectors of the economy.
U.S. sentiment below expectations • U.S. consumers pulled back slightly on their feelings about the economy, according to data released Friday. • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan early-June consumer sentiment index declined to 82.7 from 84.5 at the end of May and the preliminary-May index of 83.7, according to an economist who has seen the numbers. The index was as low as 76.4 at the end of April. • Economists expected the preliminary-June index to increase to 84.0. • The current conditions index for early June fell to 92.1 from the final-May reading of 98.0, while the expectations index rose to 76.7 from 75.8. • Inflation expectations remain muted, according to the Michigan report. The one-year inflation expectations reading for early June edged up to 3.2% from 3.1% at the end of May. Inflation expectations covering the next five to 10 years rose to 3% from 2.9%.
Growing uncertainty over global monetary policy trends prompted extreme volatility • Government bonds have recently taken a hit around the world, now that investors are preparing for the possible end of central banks' boundless economic stimulus. • That suggests that the bonds of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece might be susceptible to bigger swings in the future, as the flood of cash that has poured into financial markets recedes, leaving their economic problems more exposed, market participants say. • Thanks to the European Central Bank's pledge to support markets—and to the ocean of cash from central banks—those bonds saw extraordinary rallies for the better part of a year. But in recent weeks, the course has shifted somewhat. • Adding to the volatility last week, was the two days of legal scrutiny of the ECB’s bond-buying plan known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) – its plan to save the euro – by Germany’s constitutional court.
Uncertainty boosts demand for “safe haven” • Moreover, the ECB’s as-yet-unused program to the buy the bonds of the region’s most indebted nations, OMT, will only target yields that are out of line with fundamentals, Draghi said in an interview on German ZDF television on June 11. This pushed yields of the weakest eurozone countries up. • Italy’s 10-year yield rose 9bp this week to 4.28% after climbing to 4.47% on June 11, the highest level since April 5. Italy’s economy shrank 0.6% from the previous three months, more than the 0.5% first reported on May 15, the Rome-based National Statistics Institute said on June 10. • Spain’s 10-year yields rose 4bps to 4.59%, much higher than the 4% it reached early in May. The spread—or the amount of additional yield investors demand, above that paid by benchmark Germany—also has risen for both countries over the period. • German bunds rose as speculation central banks will remove stimulus pushed down stocks and boosted demand for the region’s safest securities. • German and French bonds advanced this week as stocks slid around the world on concern a withdrawal of Fed stimulus will curtail global growth, boosting demand for the regions safest securities. The German 10-year yield fell 4bp this week to 1.52% and France’s declined 4bp also to 2.09%.
Eurozone industrial output shows surprise rise in April • Industrial production in the eurozone rose for the third straight month in April, an indication that the currency area's longest postwar economic contraction may be coming to an end. • It does not get much attention amid volatility in the markets but this is actually quite positive news. It seems that the easing of austerity and lower financial stress compared to last year is feeding through to the economy. • The European Union's statistics agency Wednesday said industrial production in the 17 countries that share the euro rose by 0.4% from March, but was down 0.6% from April 2012. • The bloc's economy remains crippled by the impact of the sovereign debt crisis as governments continue growth-slowing fiscal consolidation, millions of Europeans are out of jobs and small- and medium-sized companies are struggling to get credit. • While April industrial production data are relatively encouraging, the eurozone manufacturing sector is not yet out of the woods. • The increase in output was concentrated in Germany and France—the currency area's largest members—while output fell in a number of countries that have been hit hardest by the eurozone's fiscal and banking crisis, including Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal.
Market volatility continues as the Yen rallies, as doubts surface about Japan’s commitment to stimulus • The yen rallied the most since July 2009 amid the highest volatility in a year as investors reassess the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus measures that pushed the currency to a four-year low last month. • Japan’s currency gained against all its most-traded peers as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held back from extending the maturity of loans to banks as part of its unprecedented easing program. • Markets might be questioning whether the BOJ is willing to continue to be aggressive on increasing accommodation. • The yen strengthened 3.3% this week to 94.31 per dollar and touched the strongest level since April 4. It reached 103.74 on May 22, the weakest since Oct. 3, 2008. • Japanese markets have gyrated since the currency initially weakened when Kuroda on April 4 outstripped economist forecasts by pledging to double monthly bond purchases. • The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond fell for a second week to 0.82%. It has swung from an all-time low of 0.315% to as much as 1% since April 4. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped into a bear market on June 13 as all shares on the gauge fell for the second time this year. • The BOJ this week kept unchanged its plan for a 60 trillion-yen ($640 billion) to 70 trillion-yen annual increase in monetary base, the central bank said after a two-day meeting ended today.
Bank of Japan stands pat • The Bank of Japan refrained Tuesday from taking any new measures to stimulate growth and ease market volatility, citing signs of economic recovery, but disappointing investors who expected further action to address problems in the government bond market. • The bank's mammoth bond-purchasing program has prompted sharp swings in the government-bond market, and some investors expected the bank to try to address that by expanding a bank loan program. • The BOJ offered a relatively upbeat projection for Japan's prospects, a day after the government upgraded its own assessment for growth in the first quarter, saying Japan's GDP expanded at 4.1% annual pace, the fastest among the advanced economies. The bank on Tuesday cited improvements in exports, resilience in business investment and private consumption and noted rising industrial production. • The BOJ decided unanimously to maintain its key policy of boosting the monetary base by ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion annually as it seeks to create annual inflation rates of around 2% to pull the economy out of its long-running deflationary pressures.
Is recent volatility a judgment on “Abenomics” or simply an adjustment period • Meanwhile, the government used the formal release of its 10-year growth plan Friday, a day after Japanese stocks fell into bear territory, to try to reassure nervous investors that its economic policies will work—and to promise more to come. • With just a month to go until elections for Japan's upper house of parliament, Japanese voters point to the economy as their main concern. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been unable to convince people—and markets—that his growth strategy has substance. • He reiterated past promises, including one to raise per capita income by ¥1.5 million ($15,760) in 10 years, and promised more to come later in the year. • When Mr. Abe unveiled details of his growth strategy last week, the Nikkei Stock Average fell 3.8%, with market watchers focusing on what wasn't being said: no corporate tax cuts, no labor deregulation to ease layoffs, no farm subsidy overhaul. • While Mr. Abe might look for positives in the 1.9% rebound in Tokyo stocks following Friday's announcement, the index was down for the fourth straight week. The Nikkei remains up 22% on year, but is 19% off its mid-May peak.
US stocks rebounded Friday on speculation that the Fed might not scale back QE as fast as has been speculated recently
Brent oil touched a two-month high over worries that an escalation to the conflict in Syria could disrupt supplies from the Middle East
Central Bank Meetings Calendar Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
Egypt’s annual urban inflation grows to 8.2% in May • Egypt’s annual urban inflation rose to 8.2% in May, with the rise mainly attributed to increase in the prices of gas, electricity and transportation. • However, the rate of urban inflation declined by 0.2% in May compared to April 2013. • Cost of transportation went up by 3.4% while electricity and natural gas rose by 16.2% and 105.7% respectively. Vegetable prices also increased by 5.6%. • Analysts are attributing the high rate of inflation to Egypt’s depreciating pound, which has depreciated by 9.72% since the beginning of the year. • Additionally, Egypt’s government has recently moved to reduce subsidies on electricity and natural gas, which account for approximately 5% of the country’s current subsidy bill. • Egypt’s annual rural inflation grew to 10% in May 2013, while annual core inflation increased to 8.04% in May from 7.47% in April. Source: Bloomberg Source: Trading Economics
Egypt in final stages of IMF loan – central bank governor • Egypt’s treasury yields rose slightly this week as the inflation rate grew to 8.2% in May, however they remain reasonably lower than pervious weeks. • In other news, Egypt's government is in the late stages of verifying its economic reform program with the International Monetary Fund before obtaining a $4.8 billion IMF loan, its central bank governor said on Saturday. • The loan is needed to help stabilize Egypt's balance of payments and state finances, and has been under discussion for two years but agreement has repeatedly been postponed by political unrest in the country and the government's reluctance to commit to austerity measures. • "The IMF is verifying numbers with the government regarding the program and they are in late stages of verifying all the numbers," according to central bank governor HishamRamez. • The IMF expects Egypt's budget deficit to widen to 11.3% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year which ends in June, the largest gap since 2002, from 10.7% in the previous year. • Egypt's central bank foreign currency reserves stand at $16 billion, rising for the second consecutive month. Source: Bloomberg
GCC Economic Highlights:Saudi May inflation slows to 3.8% on year as core index dips • According to the Kingdom’s Central Department for Statistic and Information, Saudi Arabia's annual inflation rate slowed slightly to 3.8% in May, the lowest this year, from 4% in April due to a fall in the core index. • The main contributor to the overall easing of inflation rates was a fall in the core index--which excludes food and housing components--to 2.6% in May from 3.4% in April. • Meanwhile, food and beverages prices edged up to 6.4% in May versus 6.2% in April, while rental and housing prices rose to 3.6% from 3.0%. • All of the core index's main components--clothing and footwear, transport, and restaurants and hotels--showed a significant drop in May. • Saudi's central bank and the International Monetary Fund both expect inflation in the oil-rich Arab gulf kingdom to peak at around 4.6% this year before slowing again by 2014. • In other news, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said yesterday it revised to positive from stable its outlooks on Saudi Arabia-based Arab National Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, and the Saudi British Bank. At the same time, it said, it affirmed its long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on all three banks at "A/A-1".
GCC Economic Highlights:Qatar’s annual inflation rate hits 3.5% • Qatar’s consumer price index rose 3.5% year-on-year and the index was slightly up by 0.1% month-on-month in May 2013, figures released by the Qatar Statistics Authority revealed. • The CPI data issued for the month of May recorded increase in all the groups except ‘miscellaneous goods & services, where prices declined by 1.3%. • The y-o-y inflation was mainly driven by ‘entertainment, recreation and culture’ group, which grew by 7.0% and ‘rent, fuel and energy’ by 6.5%. • Additionally, ‘transport and communications grew 2.7%, while food, beverages and tobacco grew by 2.4%. • On the other hand, the CPI data recorded a month-on-month increased in two major groups. • Food, beverages and tobacco grew by 0.2%, while garments and footwear became costlier by 0.2%. • On the other hand, prices declined by 1.3% in ‘miscellaneous goods and services’, and by 0.1% in ‘furniture, textiles and home appliances’.
GCC interbank rates Source: Bloomberg
Comparative MENA Markets For the period 09/06 – 14/06
Inflation registers 7.0% in the first five months of the year • The inflation rate reached 7.0% during the first five months of 2013 compared to the same period last year. • Even though this is a high level of inflation, it is still lower than previous months. This lower inflation level compared to previous months in 2013 can be attributed to lower food prices and partially lower consumption levels for the same period. • Among the main commodities groups which contributed to this increase were: • Transportation (18.50%) • Fuel and Electricity (24.70%) • Meat and Dairy (7.80%) • Fruits and Vegetables (21.50% and 18.70%) • The report also showed that inflation rate for May 2013 has increased by 7.1% compared with May the previous year. • Among the main commodities groups which contributed to this increase were: • Transportation (18.30%) • Fuel and Electricity (23.00%) • Meat and Dairy (7.00%) • Fruits and Vegetables (39.60% and 19.20%) • Forecast: • Forecasts by international agencies on Bloomberg expect crude oil prices to rise throughout the 3 quarters of the year. • Jordanian government is expected to increase electricity tariffs after Ramadan by 15% on businesses and factories. • Study by the IMF show raising electricity tariffs is expected to cause inflation to increase by 1 to 1.5 percent. • The increasing number of Syrian refugees is placing pressure on industries, services and infrastructure in Jordan. • Other news has emerged that the Prime Minister is thinking of lifting subsidies on essential commodities goods such as flour and bread.
Household electricity prices to be raised in 2014 • Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour told deputies on Tuesday that electricity prices for household consumption will not be raised until early 2014 and claim that more than 90% of citizens will be unaffected by the rise. • During a meeting with House members, the premier said that the hike will only apply to house electricity bills that exceed JD50 a month, and the rise, set at 15%, will only be calculated for the value of consumption above JD50 and not the entire value of the bill. • He said small consumers will not see a rise in their electricity bills "not in the near, not in the foreseen future". • The hike in electricity prices is part of the national economic reform program set by the IMF to minimize NEPCOs annual financial losses and arrears. • NEPCO’s rapidly growing budget deficit is set to reach JD3.47 billion by the end of the year and over JD7.5 billion in 2017 according to Minister of Energy. • It is seen as imperative for the government to reduce its fiscal deficit and minimize the effect of energy shocks on its electricity production.
CBJ Government Bonds Portfolio Falls • Since beginning of the year, the CBJ has reduced weekly and monthly repo agreements amounts by 400 million JD, reducing excess liquidity in the market. • Additionally, the CBJ has cut its holdings of JD government bonds by around JD 300 Million for the same period. • This means that CBJ has withdrawn monetary stimulus by about JD 700 Million since the beginning of year. • Despite the pressure caused on JD liquidity due to these factors, government bonds yields decreased by 2% for the same period, reflecting strong De-Dollarization wave and market expectations of less future demand on domestic liquidity.
Amman Stock ExchangeFor the period 09/06 – 13/06 ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at (2033.4)points, compared to (2022.5)points for the last week, posting an increase of 0.54%. The total trading volume during the week reached JD(43.3) million compared to JD(56.4) million during the last week. Trading a total of (41.7)million shares through (20,038)transactions The shares of (179) companies were traded, the shares prices of (70) companies rose, and the shares prices of (69) declined.
Local Debt MonitorLatest T-Bills As of June 16, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD(2,365) million.
Disclaimer The materials of this report may contain inaccuracies and typographical errors. Cairo Amman Bank does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the materials or the reliability of any advice, opinion, statement or other information displayed or distributed through this report. You acknowledge that any reliance on any such opinion, advice, statement, memorandum, or information shall be at your sole risk. Cairo Amman Bank reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to correct any error or omission in any portion of the report without notice. Cairo Amman Bank may make any other changes to the report, its materials described in the report at any time without notice. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and are provided "As Is" without any representation or warranty and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment and\or to be relied on for any act whatsoever. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients "As Is", but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient; they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Cairo Amman Bank does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates, opinions, analysis and/or any content for whatsoever nature included in this report constitute Cairo Amman Bank’s sole judgments and opinions without any liability and/or representation as of the date of this report and it should not be relied upon as such. Cairo Amman Bank reserves the right to change any part of this report or this legal Disclaimer at any time without notice. Any changes to this legal Disclaimer shall take effect immediately. Notwithstanding the above, Cairo Amman Bank shall not be obliged to keep this report up to date. The Recipient agree to defend, indemnify and hold harmless Cairo Amman Bank and its subsidiaries & affiliate companies and their respective officers, directors, employees, agents and representatives from any and all claims arising directly or indirectly out of and in connection of the recipient activities conducted in connection with this report.
