Conflict Analysis

Conflict Analysis Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Monday, February 09, 2004

Objectives • Turn conflict into win-win situations • Learn how to analyze conflict • Learn how to use the analysis for better insights into the conflict Not just model building & formulas but also a process

Who Is the Decision Maker? • Several constituencies • e.g. department heads meeting to resolve conflict on budget • Two people • e.g. negotiations between a clinician and a manager at an HMO • On person • Role playing of an objective outsider Analyst meets with eachparty one on one

Premises • People have cognitive biases • When two parties negotiate some conflict is due to miscommunications • A conflict is easier to grasp if it is broken into components • Individuals can specify their values and prioritize them • The analyst can provide reduce conflict due to miscommunication, provide insight into the thinking of each party and identify solutions overlooked by both parties

A Conflict Analyzed Is a Conflict Understood Prevent escalation of conflict

Analysis Forces Rationality into Conflict Increase self insight

Steps in Analysis of Conflict

1. Understand the problem • Identifying constituencies • Not just vocal groups • Representation • Identifying spokespeople • Maybe role playing • Identifying assumptions • Get the catchwords

1. Understand the problem • Identifying constituencies • Not just vocal groups • Representation • Identifying spokespeople • Maybe role playing • Analyzing assumptions

Example Assumptions

2. Structure the Problem • Identify issues • What do we have control over that can be changed? • Identify levels of resolution • What is this side’s position on the issue? • What resolutions might it accept? • What resolutions are totally unacceptable? • Why are the levels considered in this way?

Interviews • Which components of family planning should be available to minors and under what conditions. • Education • Counseling • Services

Heart of the Conflict • Should values and morals be taught when delivering family planning services? • Should counseling of adolescents start from the position that premarital sex among adolescents is bad? • Which is more important, allowing easy access to services or having services controlled by organizations with what are considered high morals? • What are the optimum technical qualifications of the personnel? • Who, if anybody, should regulate the provision of family planning services to adolescents?

Example Issues & Resolutions

3. Explore Solutions • Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue • Create and score treaties • Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue • Perform optimal analysis • Focus on Pareto optimal treaties • Logroll • Organize process of negotiations • Deescalate the conflict

ValueModels

Value Models Continued

Sample Treaty Try It

Scoring of a Treaty

Sample Treaty Scored Total value = 53.4

Orthogonal Design for Treatieswith Two Issues

Orthogonal Design for Treaties for Three Issues

Pareto Optimal Pareto Optimal Points inside the plot are different treaties

Search for Pareto Optimal Treaties Use the information to improve one constituents situation without deteriorating the other

Example of Negotiating Every Issue

Example of Logrolling

Organize Process of Negotiation

De-escalate the conflict • Prevent the parties from negotiating on the overall treaty until some agreements have been reached • Discuss issues in a sequence that minimizes frustration • Divide the conflict into component issues increase the probability of finding a few areas of agreement

Summary

Conflict Analysis