survey why limited use of ensembles in operations
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 38

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 115 Views
  • Uploaded on

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?. Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle [email protected] Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions:

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?' - haig


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
survey why limited use of ensembles in operations

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR

Dr. Brian A. Colle

[email protected]

slide2

Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service.

Survey Questions:

What is your current position? (operational forecaster, manager/admin, researcher, and model developer)

How often do you use ensembles?

Why are ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? Weight each issue from “not a problem” (= 1) to “one of the largest problems” (= 5)

Rank the 8 provided issues from the largest problem to the smallest issue/problem.

Open Ended Question: Other written comments regarding the difficulty in using ensembles in operations.

slide3
Survey open from 9 November 2011 to 15 December 2011. Sent to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research.

* The results in the following slides are separated into the following sections. Number of responses are in the ( )

All responses (166)

Operational Forecasters (111)

Admin / Managers (37)

Researchers and Model Developers (18)

Forecasters who sometimes or never use ensembles (50)

Forecasters who use ensembles often or always (61)

* For each section above, there are two sets of plots for questions # 3 and 4 to show the average value/rank and another to show the distribution of responses.

slide6
3 = 32%

2 = 35%

1 = 31%

2 = 36%

Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

Top Median Response Number Also Shown and Percent

2 = 30%

3 = 32%

3 = 31%

3 = 32%

slide8
#1 = 23%

#8 = 19%

#8 = 25%

#5 = 19%

Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

Top Median Rank Number Also Shown and Percent

#4 = 19%

#5 = 17%

#6 = 17%

#2 = 32%

slide12
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide13
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide18
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide19
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide24
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide25
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide29
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide30
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide34
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

slide35
Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

(1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

conclusions

Conclusions

Nearly all forecasters use ensembles; however, only ~45% use them “sometimes.”

Each ensemble issue has a large distribution of rankings (some problems were considered major for some and minor for others) – so there are a variety of opinions as illustrated by the open ended questions.

The highest ranked issues are (1) the lack of tool/graphics, (2) ensemble data access, and (3) ensemble training.

For forecasters who “sometimes use ensembles,” it appears that the time to view/interpret ensembles is also an issue (ranked #3). Some of this may be from the lack of good tools and data access as suggested by their open ended questions.

Managers/admin view the issue of time to view/interpret ensembles as the smallest problem on average (ranked #8).

Most or all researchers and model developers use ensembles. They clearly believe that the lack of tool/graphics is the largest issue.

ad