1 / 27

Inflection Points and Polar Bears - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Inflection Points and Polar Bears. Jason Hamilton Thomas J. Pfaff. Glacier Pair Images. http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf. A Look at Global Temperature . T(x)=0.0005x 2 -0.00527x+57.137 F T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year x years after 1950

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Inflection Points and Polar Bears' - hagen

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

Inflection Points and Polar Bears

Jason Hamilton

Thomas J. Pfaff

• http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf

T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00527x+57.137 F

T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year

x years after 1950

• T(58)= 58.51 F and T’(58)=0.0528 F/year

• In 2008 the average global temperature was 58.51 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0528 deg F per year.

The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.

-March 2006

• T(100)=61.60 F and T(150)=67.61 F

• The model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.61 deg F, an increase of 3.49 and 9.48 deg F, respectively, since 2000.

• Using T’(58)=.0528 F/year

• If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.24 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.37, respectively.

• 1980

• Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59

• Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79

• Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44

• Melt Period: 6.20 months

• 2008

• Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26

• Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80

• Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77

• Melt Period: 6.54 months

D Heat content of atmosphere & hydrosphere

• Air Temperature & D Water Temperature

D Ice

DIce

• Spatial Extent?

• Thickness?

• Timing of thaw?

• Timing of re-freeze?

• Ice characteristics?

Males

Freeze

Grow

March

Sept

Shrink

Thaw

June

January

Cubs

Freeze

Leave den

March

Sept

Mate

Den

Thaw

June

• Jason:jhamilton@ithaca.edu

• Tom: tpfaff@ithaca.edu

Partly supported by NSF DUE-0837721