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THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010

THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010. Kathleen A. Frankovic Hawaii Economic Association August 26, 2010. OVERVIEW. What are the national prospects for House and Senate? What can we expect the role of issues to be in the election campaign? Which issues have shown up in this year’s elections?

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THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010

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  1. THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010 Kathleen A. Frankovic Hawaii Economic Association August 26, 2010

  2. OVERVIEW • What are the national prospects for House and Senate? • What can we expect the role of issues to be in the election campaign? Which issues have shown up in this year’s elections? • How do political scientists forecast the outcome? • Will it all be about the economy?

  3. WHERE WE STAND HOUSE COMPOSITION • 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans • All seats are up SENATE COMPOSITION • 37 seats up (includes special elections) • Current Senate: 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans • Not up: 40 Democrats, 23 Republicans • Democrats ONLY need 10 wins to keep control

  4. WILL THIS BE 1994 ALL OVER AGAIN? • In 1994, Republicans had an 8-point lead in House vote and captured 54 Democratic seats • This year they need only 39 • There are 49 Congressional districts with Democratic Congressmen that were carried by McCain in 2008 • However, only 11 gave McCain 60% or more of the vote • Most of those Congressmen seem secure

  5. FORECASTING MIDTERM ELECTIONS Elections have been nationalized since 1994 and Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America Before then, many – if not most – of House and Senate races were decided by local and candidate factors On many of the important issues, Republicans have an edge And then there’s the Tea Party

  6. POLITICAL SCIENCE’S ATTEMPTS AT PREDICTION REGRESSION MODELS USING… -- Presidential approval -- Current or the change over time -- Some measure of economic growth like the change in real disposable income per capita -- Whether party is “exposed” or controls Congress -- President’s victory margin when elected -- What voters say they will do AND THE MARGIN IS THEN CONVERTED INTO SEATS

  7. THE MODELS HAVEN’T BEEN PARTICULARLY SUCCESSFUL!!! ________ WHAT ARE THE DATA ABOUT THE ISSUES AND THE ELECTION?

  8. MOSQUES

  9. MOSQUES

  10. SAME-SEX MARRIAGE Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry. There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.

  11. IMMIGRATION

  12. IMMIGRATION

  13. AFGHANISTAN

  14. THE ISSUES

  15. THE ECONOMY

  16. THE ECONOMY

  17. THE ECONOMY

  18. THE PRESIDENT

  19. THE PRESIDENT

  20. THE REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGES IN 2010 • Presidential approval below 50% • Historical patterns (post-first presidential election) • Transient issues favor them • Greater enthusiasm

  21. ENTHUSIASM GAP Talked About

  22. THE IMPACT OF ISSUES Economic concerns usually help Democrats, but this year, Democrats are in control. Republican lead on most less important issues BUT…Americans like the Republican Party even less than they like Democrats!

  23. 2010 National Congressional Ballot - Latest Poll August 22, 2010

  24. LESS THAN 10 WEEKS TO GO!

  25. THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010 Kathleen A. Frankovic Hawaii Economic Association August 26, 2010

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