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Doctoral Program and Advanced Degree in Sustainable Energy Systems Doctoral Program in Mechanical Engineering Doctoral Program in Environmental Engineering. Ecological Economics Lecture 13. Ricardo da Silva Vieira Researcher/Consultant Tiago Domingos Assistant Professor

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Ecological economics lecture 13

Doctoral Program and Advanced Degree in Sustainable Energy SystemsDoctoral Program in Mechanical EngineeringDoctoral Program in Environmental Engineering

Ecological EconomicsLecture 13

Ricardo da Silva VieiraResearcher/Consultant

Tiago Domingos

Assistant Professor

Environment and Energy SectionDepartment of Mechanical Engineering


Knowledge ethics discounting and climate change i
Knowledge, Ethics, Discounting and Climate Change I Systems

  • “Spash says that the standard economic approach used by Stern shifts attention from ‘value conflicts’ and issues of distribution, uncertainty and ethics, favouring economic modeling as a means to provide a simplified solution to a complex problem.”

    • Cátia and John

  • Choosing a social discount rate “is inherently an ethical judgment that requires comparing the well-being of different people”

    • António and Pedro

  • “However, how can we predict what their future preferences might be?”

    • Cátia and John


Knowledge ethics discounting and climate change ii
Knowledge, Ethics, Discounting and Climate Change II Systems

  • “ (…) the discount rate is (…) the market rate of return on safe investments plus an appropriate risk premium for uncertainty (Howarth and Norgaard)

    • António and Pedro

  • “ (…) this theoretical framework implies that the risk premium should not be positive for precautionary actions such as buying insurance.” (Howarth and Norgaard)

  • “ (…) we should multiply the cost or benefit of an outcome by the probability of its occurring. Any probability less than 1 is a form of discounting.” Caney (2009)

    • Carlos e Rebeca


General comments
General Comments Systems

  • Very interesting references obtained

  • But inadequate references

  • Lack of connection to the material on Green GDP


Overview
Overview Systems

Sustainability appraisal methods

MCDAs

Ethics in sustainability appraisal processes

Exercise: Lewis Wind Farm, Scotland

Discussion


I. Appraisal Methods Systems

Methods that allow for comparing a set of alternatives to address a given problem:


Family of appraisal methods
Family Systemsofappraisalmethods

I. Appraisal Methods

CBA

Cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, financial analysis

Env. Assess.

Environmental impact assessment, strategic environmental assessment, sustainability appraisal

Metabolic Analyses

Ecological footprint, material flow analysis, energy/emergy/exergy analyses …

LCAs and EMS

Life cycle assessment and environmental management systems

Risk Assessments

Risk assessment, Monte Carlo modelling, aggregative Bayesian methods, statistical errors, levels of proof …


I. Appraisal Methods Systems

Problemswithcurrentapproaches

  • Dealing with high uncertainty

    • facts are uncertain,

    • value judgments are inevitable

  • Values in dispute:

    • ambiguity (what is affected)

    • conflicting priorities


I. Appraisal Methods Systems

Problemswithcurrentapproaches

  • When we want to satisfy more than one goal

    • Goals in different units

    • Qualitative and quantitative goals

  • Dealing with trade-offs between different goals

    • Which theories are used? Why? are they relevant? where is objectivity?

  • They do not necessarily help in…

    • … identifying and resolving potential conflicts

    • … bringing transparency and accountability to the decision-making process


II. MCDA Systems

Anoverview

  • Establish preferences between options based on a set of objectives and to the extent the options satisfy these objectives

  • Helps with large amounts of complex data

  • Helps to identify a most preferred option, the least preferred option, rank options, short-list a limited number of options, or to distinguish between acceptable from unacceptable possibilities


II. MCDA Systems

Advantages

  • It is open and explicit:

    • Objectives and criteria are open to analysis and change,

    • Same with scores and weights

  • Provides audit trails


II. MCDA Systems

Stepsinthe MCDA

Directanalysisoftheimpactmatrix

Definitionoftheobject of decision

A setofAlternatives

Linear additivemodels (incl MAUT) - weights

Definitionof a setof Criteria

A setofCriteria

Total number of criteria

Scoring(impactmatrix)

Aggregationofscores

Aggregationprocedures

Weight of criteria j

Performance of option a in criteria j

Performance of option a


II. MCDA Systems

Stepsinthe MCDA

Directanalysisoftheimpactmatrix

Definitionoftheobject of decision

A setofAlternatives

Linear additivemodels (incl MAUT) - weights

Definitionof a setof Criteria

A setofCriteria

AHP (binarycomparison) - weights

Scoring

Outrankingmethods

Aggregationofscores

Aggregationprocedures

Qualitativemethods

Fuzzysets


III. Ethics in the Decision-making Process Systems

Anoverview

Definitionoftheobject of decision

A setofAlternatives

Which alternatives? Which scale? Which time-horizon?

Definitionof a setof Criteria

A setofCriteria

Which criteria? Which scale? Which time-horizon?

Scoring

Scores

Which scores? Average? Marginal? Best-case scenario? Worst-case scenario? How certain are crisp values? What can affect the scores and in how much?

According to who’s preferences? General economic or ecological theories? Local or global priorities? Perceptions by decision-makers or representatives of society?

Aggregationofscores

Aggregationprocedures


III. Ethics in the Decision-making Process Systems

Anoverview

  • If the process is being driven by technical and/or specialist knowledge, then alternatives will tend to privilege technology based strategies.

  • Politically contentious options, or options without organised lobby groups, may be neglected.

  • Participants without specialist knowledge will require access to additional information before defining a range of options.

Participation

Transparency

Who?

When?

How?

E.g.,

Three-stage multicriteria evaluation

Social multicriteria evaluation

Multicriteria mapping

Deliberative mapping


To be located at the Isle of Lewis, Scotalnd, an island with several sites of natural heritage, and special protection areas

The Lewis Wind Farm was proposed to be the biggest wind farm in Scotland

The scheme was planned to be built on a Special Protection Area

The original proposal was for 234 wind turbines with 702 MW installed capacity

The revised proposal consisted of 181 wind turbines, with 651 MW installed capacity

IV. Exercise

LewisWindFarm


IV. Exercise several sites of natural heritage, and special protection areas

Define Alternatives

Define Criteria

Define Scores

Define weights

Determine Performance


V. Discussion several sites of natural heritage, and special protection areas

  • How different were the results?

    • Overall performance, criteria used, weights?

  • Are all criteria legitimate? Did you include all? Where you thinking local? Global?

  • How certain are you on the scores? Did you use marginal or average values?

  • What do you think is missing in the appraisal?

  • How do you think this could be dealt with?

  • What advantages/disadvantages MCDAs have?


V. Discussion several sites of natural heritage, and special protection areas

  • What do you think is missing in the appraisal?

  • How do you think this could be dealt with?

  • What advantages/disadvantages MCDAs have?


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