1 / 34

360 likes | 551 Views

IE 214: Operations Management. Lecture. 3. Forecasting. KAMAL. EXERCISE 4.3. Solution:. a) There is no pattern of any kind. EXERCISE 4.3. Solution:. EXERCISE 4.3. Solution:. d) The 3-year moving average method gives better results. EXERCISE 4.5. Solution:. (381+368+374)/3 = 374.33

Download Presentation
## Forecasting

**An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation**
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.
Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only.
Download presentation by click this link.
While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

**IE 214: Operations Management**Lecture 3 Forecasting KAMAL**EXERCISE 4.3**Solution: a) There is no pattern of any kind**EXERCISE 4.3**Solution:**EXERCISE 4.3**Solution: d) The 3-year moving average method gives better results**EXERCISE 4.5**Solution: (381+368+374)/3 = 374.33 b) (381*0.1)+(368*0.3)+(374*0.6) = 372.9**EXERCISE 4.5**Solution: c) Ft = F t-1 + α(At-1 – Ft-1) ; α = 0.2**EXERCISE 4.8**Given:**EXERCISE 4.8**Solution: 91.3333 a) Ft = (96+88+90)/3 = 91.3333**EXERCISE 4.8**89 b) Ft = (88+90)/2 = 89**EXERCISE 4.8**c) MAD = ∑|At-Ft|/n = 13.5/5 = 2.7**EXERCISE 4.8**d) MSE = ∑(At-Ft)^2/n = 66.75/5 = 13.35**EXERCISE 4.8**e) MAPE = (∑|At-Ft|/At)*100/n = 0.149449*100/5 = 2.98897%**EXERCISE 4.19**Solution: Ft = F t-1 + α(At-1 – Ft-1) F3 = 48 = 50 + α(42 - 50) → -8α = -2 → α = 0.25 F5 = F4 + α(A4 – F4) = 50 + 0.25*(46 - 50) = 49**HW**4.1 4.4 4.14 4.45**EXERCISE 4.20**Given: α = 0.1 , ß = 0.2**EXERCISE 4.20**Solution: • Ft= α(At-1) + (1- α)(Ft-1 + Tt-1) • Tt= ß(Ft - Ft-1) + (1- ß)*Tt-1 • FIT = Ft + Tt**EXERCISE 4.20**65.5 0.1 65.6 • Ft= 0.1*(70) + (0.9)(65 + 0) = 65.5 • Tt= 0.2(65.5 - 65) + (0.8)*0 = 0.1 • FIT = 65.5 + 0.1 = 65.6**EXERCISE 4.21**• MSE= ∑(Error^2)/n = 12.7**EXERCISE 4.26**Given: a= y – b x Y = a + b x = 5 + (20)(5) = 105 ^**EXERCISE 4.26**Solution:**EXERCISE 4.26**Solution: b= (650)-(4)(2.5)(55)/[(30)-(4*(2.5^2))] = 100/5 = 20 a= 55 – (20*2.5) = 5 Y = a + b x = 5 + (20)(5) = 105 ^**HW**4.38 4.48**EXERCISE 4.30**Given: • 1000 radials produced each year. • Production planned to be 1200 radials next year.**EXERCISE 4.30**Solution: 1200 / 4 = 300 radials planned to be sold each season next year 300 * Is = Forecast for next year’s season**EXERCISE 4.30**Solution:**HW PROBLEMS**4.27 4.29

More Related