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SC Planning 3: Capability Based Planning

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  1. SC Planning 3: Capability Based Planning

  2. Learning Objectives • Identify how higher level guidance impacts the development of a Country Plan (CP). • Understand where US objectives align with our partner countries objectives by evaluating the challenges and opportunities in the partner nation’s security environment. • Appreciate how the DOTMLPF model can be used to assess partner nation forces. • Understand how to integrate and prioritize capability shortfalls among a partner nation’s military forces.

  3. SC Planning Terms • Theater Strategic End States defined in the GEF • Lines of Effort (LOE) group related IMOs and activities to focus effort towards GEF end states • Intermediate Military Objectives (IMO) are goals that are military unique and in their accomplishment constitute a positive and substantial step toward achieving an end state • Lines of Activity (LOA) consists of the related activities, events, and investments that must be synchronized over time to achieve an IMO • Effects • Key intermediate results, outcomes or consequences of an action • Tasks • U.S. actions required • resource/force investments and allocations GCC SCO

  4. The Circle of Life DOS and MSRP FMF/IMET PLAN 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 COUNTRY CAMPAIGN PLAN THEATER CAMPAIGN PLAN Your predecessors Your successors YOU

  5. Planning Functions GEF Strategic Guidance GCC TCP • Ends GCC RCP GCC CP Objectives Concept Development • Ways Assessments Lines of Effort Lines of Activities SC Programs Plan Development Mil to Mil • Means Schools Exercises FMS Ref JP 5-0 11 August 2011

  6. Operational Art “Through operational art, commanders link ends, ways, and means to achieve or move toward desired end states.” Country Plans should be an integral component of the Combatant Commander’s Operational Approach Ref JP 5-0 11 August 2011

  7. Operational Approach • Understand the Strategic Direction • Guidance Documents • Understand the Operational Environment • PMESII / COG Analysis / Cultural Studies / SWOT • Define the Problem • “Where we are” versus “Where we want to be” Ref JP 5-0 11 August 2011

  8. Country-level SC Planning • Mission Analysis • Capabilities-based Analysis • Resourcing • Plan Development

  9. Mission Analysis • Analysis higher guidance • Theater Strategic End States • Identify challenges to Strategic End States • Identify key planning assumptions • Identify Intermediate Military Objectives (IMO) • Assess “success” and “sufficiency” Theater Campaign Planner’s Handbook, Feb 12

  10. Mission Analysis STEP 1: Articulate higher objectives. Identify the roles we want the PN to play, what that requires, if they can do it, and if they would do it. • Analyze higher guidance • Assess security environment • Define the desired security role for the partner country • Determine required condition to play that role • Assess partner desire and ability to play that role • Identify resources available Theater Campaign Planner’s Handbook, Feb 12

  11. Guidance and Objectives Finding the “Sweet Spot” Strategy prescribes how the nation will apply resources to the pursuit of these interests

  12. The Country PlanServing Two Masters • At country level, the plan must be designed to accomplish or advance two objectives: • Support and enable the priorities established by the US Ambassador • Support relevant COCOM objectives and end states The Ambassador ultimately has veto power, so the SDOs must convince him/her that COCOM-related planning tasks serve the Country Team’s Foreign Policy interests/objectives

  13. The Role of Country Plansin the Chain of Planning SECSTATE SECDEF The “Clutch Plate” Aggregates Country Requirements and Allocates Available Resources to Activities, Events and Investments Country Team ICS SCO Country Plan COCOM Theater Campaign Plan Accounts for and Balances COCOM and Country Team Requirements Service Campaign Support Plan Service Component Plan

  14. The Role of Country Plansin the Chain of Planning SECSTATE SECDEF The “Clutch Plate” Aggregates Country Requirements and Allocates Available Resources to Activities, Events and Investments Country Team MSRP SCO Country Plan COCOM Theater Campaign Plan Accounts for and Balances COCOM and Country Team Requirements Partner Nation’s Plan Service Campaign Support Plan Service Component Plan

  15. Security Environment PMESII COG Analysis SWOT Analysis Terrain Cultural Studies Ref JP 5-0 11 August 2011

  16. Capabilities-Based Analysis STEP 2: Assess the extent to which host nation forces have the capabilities and capacity required to accomplish key missions • Describe the Mission • Identify military tasks • Identify capabilities • Assess current capabilities • Identify gaps • Assess risks • Recommend solutions • DOTMLPF • Policy “Ways” to “Means” in increasing detail

  17. DOTMLPF Baseline Goal Doctrine Organization Training Materiel Leadership & Education Personnel Facilities

  18. “Ways to Means” LINE OF ACTIVITY Prepare Military Forces for Missions in Afghanistan Trained Regional Standard Assessed against Regional Standard EFFECTS Tasks Train Individuals Train Units Assess BN Security Cooperation Activities Observes @ HN FTX Conduct XX Training Combined Exercise Assessment FAM Security Cooperation Resources TCA/BPC FY12 $XX 1206 FY12 $xx CCCEP TCA/BPC FY10 $XX

  19. ResourcingAddressing Gaps and Shortfalls STEP 3:Identify and evaluate candidate initiatives that can help to fill gaps in capabilities and reduce shortfalls in capacity

  20. “Ways to Means” LINE OF ACTIVITY Prepare Military Forces for Missions in Afghanistan Remember the Sweet Spot! Trained Regional Standard Assessed against Regional Standard EFFECTS Tasks Train Individuals Train Units Assess BN Security Cooperation Activities Observe HN FTX Conduct XX Training Combined Exercise Assessment FAM Security Cooperation Resources TCA/BPC FY12 $XX 1206 FY12 $xx CCCEP TCA/BPC FY12 $XX

  21. U.S. Investment Considerations National Objectives • Deriving– What strategy and environment are your missions and capabilities designed to address? • Prioritizing– What shortfalls are most important and pressing? (based on risk and urgency) • Integrating– Have you invested in everything you need across all Services to be effective as a joint force? • Balancing– Have you balanced your investments and attendant risk across all the capabilities you must have during the planning period? (will require trades between services) • Sequencing– What do you need now? What can you wait for until later? Is there a logical order in which you must make your investments? • Resourcing– How much can you afford to buy during the planning period? Security Environment Missions Capability Analysis P/N Army P/N Navy P/N Air Force Integrated Resource Plan YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 Goal: Attain maximum capability with available resources Partner’s Strategy & Resource Plan

  22. Building an Integrated Program P/N Navy Resource Plan P/N Army Resource Plan P/N Air Force Resource Plan Remember the Sweet Spot! Integrated Defense Ministry Resource Plan Some individual or organization must integrate, balance and prioritize service requirements YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5

  23. Capability A Package Equipment Training/Education Unified Prioritized Capability List 1. Capability A 2. Capability B 3. Capability C 4. Capability D 5. Capability E 6. Capability F 7. Capability G 21. Capability N Infrastructure Logistics/Support Systems • Capability B Capability B Package Equipment Training/Education Infrastructure Logistics/Support Systems Capability C Package Capability D Package Equipment Equipment Training/Education Training/Education Infrastructure Infrastructure Logistics/Support Systems Logistics/Support Systems Integrated Resource Plan • Service Capability • Requirements • Capability A • 2. Capability B • Capability C • Capability D • Capability E • Capability F • Capability G • Capability N Available Resources Result: an integrated, prioritized list, tied to strategy, missions & capability gaps

  24. Identify and Sequence Operations, Activities, Events & Investments The planner must also identify the contribution the partner and others will play in the plan – particularly wrt capability building Year of Execution 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year OBJ 1 Near-Term OBJ Mid-Term OBJ Line of Effort

  25. Lines of Effort (LOE) Theater Campaign Planner’s Handbook, Feb 12

  26. Plan Development STEP 4:The plan organizes activities, events, investments, and operations in time, space, and purpose • Planning informs: • Country Plan (aka CRP, CCP, CWP, etc) • Integrated Country Strategies (ICS) • Should: • Be updated as strategic conditions or funding changes

  27. Country Plans Must Address: • Country Assessment • Country Objectives • Should reference TCP and ICS directly • Concept of Engagement • Synchronization Matrix • Coordinating Instructions Theater Campaign Planner’s Handbook, Feb 12

  28. “Ways to Means” LINE OF ACTIVITY Prepare Military Forces for Missions in Afghanistan Trained Regional Standard Assessed against Regional Standard EFFECTS Tasks Train Individuals Train Units Assess BN Security Cooperation Activities Observe HN FTX Conduct XX Training Combined Exercise Assessment FAM Security Cooperation Resources TCA/BPC FY12 $XX 1206 FY12 $xx CCCEP TCA/BPC FY10 $XX

  29. Synchronization MatrixAn Illustrative Example Individual Training FMS Case 2 Exercise FMS Case 1 Collective Training Build Required Infrastructure Collective Training Exercise DIRI Negotiate Landing Rights Negotiate Basing Renew Basing SA Negotiate Formal SOFA Negotiate Overland Transit Negotiate Port Access Regional Conference Regional Conference Mil-to-Mil Mil-to-Mil Mil-to-Mil Mil-to-Mil Regional Conference Establish Intel & Info Sharing Agreement Armaments Coop wrt to FMS Case Joint Coalition Operations (ISAF) Strategic Communication Effort

  30. Synchronization MatrixAn Illustrative Example Adjust Resources Shape Resources Individual Training FMS Case 2 Exercise FMS Case 1 Collective Training Build Required Infrastructure Collective Training Exercise DIRI Negotiate Landing Rights Negotiate Basing Renew Basing SA Negotiate Formal SOFA Negotiate Overland Transit Current country planning window is about 2 yrs Negotiate Port Access Regional Conference Regional Conference Mil-to-Mil Mil-to-Mil Mil-to-Mil Mil-to-Mil Regional Conference Establish Intel & Info Sharing Agreement Armaments Coop wrt to FMS Case Joint Coalition Operations (ISAF) Strategic Communication Effort

  31. Review • What higher level plans bear on the CP? • Who ensure coordination between DoD and DOS priorities at the country level? • What is the “sweet spot”? • How does DOTMLPF assist in capabilities analysis?

  32. Some Final Points • The goal of this process is to address capability shortfalls in a structured, logical way for the military as a whole • The process just outlined is as much art as it is science • It requires sound military judgment and reaching negotiation/consensus • This is a process we can use with all our partners Plan helps to explain why partner should make particular investments

  33. Learning Objectives • Identify how higher level guidance impacts the development of a Country Plan (CP). • Understand where US objectives align with our partner countries objectives by evaluating the challenges and opportunities in the partner nation’s security environment. • Appreciate how the DOTMLPF model can be used to assess partner nation forces. • Understand how to integrate and prioritize capability shortfalls among a partner nation’s military forces.

  34. SC Planning 3: Capability Based Planning