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Changing Economic Landscapes
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  1. Changing Economic Landscapes Dr Maurice Mullard Lecture 9

  2. Geography of Present Recession • What sort of Recession • V Shape • W Shape • L Shaped • Comparison with Depression of 1929 • Japan lost decade • Russia 1989

  3. What are the Implications for Globalisation • Thesis that Globalisation after 1990 was defined by USA – liberalisation free trade free markets Washington Consensus • End of History thesis • Break of Soviet Union • Response of China • Beijing Consensus

  4. Does Recession means Reversals from Globalisation • Retreat into protectionism warnings of World Bank and IMF • Models Washington Consensus and Beijing Consensus • Beijing Model How is China dealing with Africa • Replace IMF in loans to Uganda • Still a forms of selling commodities oil basic metals

  5. Emergence of China • China now 4th largest economy 4.4. trillion dollars forecast to surpass US Economy 2050 • India and China 40 per cent of World population • China workshop of the World low level technology cheap goods eventually move up production chain • Worries for EU and USA

  6. BRICS • Brazil Russia India China and future of global economy • More democratic in the sense that China and India have large populations • Dominance of the West 800 million in world population of 6.2 billion • Resources Populations as future large consumer markets • China dominance of East Asia

  7. The Retreat of the West • Dominance of the West last two hundred years • Dominance Resources technology • Hegemony monopoly in ways of thinking culture Enlightenment • Break up of Soviet Union • US ascendancy neo cons American Century • Global GDP EU same GDP size as USA 18 trillion dollars • China 4.4 trillion

  8. Global Challenges • Food – politics global warming sun and less water in Africa melting snows for China and Inidia • Environment retreat from Copenhagen conflicts rich and poor countries • Africa Agriculture potential • Oil producers Middle East • Retreat of US Consumers

  9. Global Challenges • Global Imbalances US UK trade deficits China Germany Japan trade surplus • Bernake thesis on the savings glut • Obama speech in China US no loner consumer for global economy • IMF criticism of China value for the yuan • Worrying about public sector deficits