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Brussels, 29 th April 2009

Second GTE+ Workshop on the European Ten Year Network Development Plan 2009. Brussels, 29 th April 2009. Presentation by Martin Altstätter Chairman Forecasting Task Force . Table of Content : . Eurogas experience in forecasting & preliminary remarks Eurogas demand forecasts

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Brussels, 29 th April 2009

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  1. Second GTE+ Workshop on the European Ten Year Network Development Plan 2009 Brussels, 29th April 2009 Presentation by Martin Altstätter Chairman Forecasting Task Force

  2. Table of Content: • Eurogas experience in forecasting & preliminary remarks • Eurogas demand forecasts • Considerations for future Eurogas outlook • Preliminary comments on GTE+ results • Conclusions

  3. 1) Eurogas experience in forecasting: • Eurogas forecasting Task Force • Work on long-term demand and supply in EU27 until 2030 • Last forecast published in 2007 (see Eurogas Annual Report) Preliminary remarks: • Eurogas congratulates GTE+ for Preliminary Report • Eurogas thanks GTE+ for possibility to comment • Eurogas recalls its position that the 10 year plan should reflect a • European dimension • Evidence of improved co-operation and co-ordination between TSOs

  4. 2) Eurogas Demand forecasts • Dynamic growth of 1990 will slow down • Main driver in future gas demand is power generation 625 603 578 535 493 438

  5. Comparison Commission – Eurogas – IEAPrimary Energy Consumption of Natural Gas => Compared to recent forecasts, Eurogas represents the “upper part” IEA; 517 445

  6. 3) Considerations for future Eurogas outlook • To reflect current developments, we decided to revise our long term outlook for demand and supply in the EU • Expected results in 2010 • The following aspects are to be discussed in this context: • Impact of the economic crisis in short and medium term • Growth of gas demand in the residential and commercial sector is limited by saturation trends in some national markets, more intensive energy savings and fiercer competition by renewables • Are the developments in the power generation sufficiently dynamic for natural gas ? Price competitiveness, evolution of ETS, expansion of renewables and political choices on nuclear are to be monitored • Uncertainties of demand predictions are significant

  7. 4) Preliminary comments: • 10 year plan should be seen as basis for further requirements on cross-border capacity • Eurogas encourages further participation of TSOs • Work on a more coherent and consistent methodology for future exercise • Further information on assumptions and definitions is needed • Favor an EU approach going beyond the sum of individual TSOs projections (European dimension) • Need to ensure comparativeness with existent scenarios (ie: present EU27 totals)

  8. 5) Conclusions Taking into consideration current uncertainties in future demand evolution, the Eurogas experts will look closer at the GTE+ preliminary figures and send comments as soon as possible

  9. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

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