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The U. S. Official Field Crop Statistics System

The U. S. Official Field Crop Statistics System. Rich Allen, Chair Agricultural Statistics Board. Goal. Describe the information flow and key procedures for official USDA Crop Publications. Approach. Outline timing Emphasize timeliness Describe procedures. Flow. Key dates for 2003

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The U. S. Official Field Crop Statistics System

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  1. The U. S. Official Field Crop Statistics System Rich Allen, Chair Agricultural Statistics Board

  2. Goal Describe the information flow and key procedures for official USDA Crop Publications

  3. Approach • Outline timing • Emphasize timeliness • Describe procedures

  4. Flow • Key dates for 2003 • Report contents • Report procedures • Related information sources

  5. Key 2003 Dates - 1 • March 31 • Prospective planting report issued by NASS

  6. Key 2003 Dates - 2 • May 12 • WAOB issues first WASDE report projecting 2003 crop production

  7. Key 2003 Dates - 3 • June 30 • NASS issues Acreage report

  8. Key 2003 Dates - 4 • August 12 • NASS issues first survey based forecast of 2003 yields

  9. NASS Crop Survey Year Starts with June

  10. June Acreage Survey • Conducted June 1-15 • Large List Sample • Area Frame Survey • Collect Actual Planting and Remaining Intentions

  11. Area Frame Sample • Each State divided into land use strata • Landsat images used for first level of stratification • Segment sizes and sampling rates vary by strata

  12. August Crop Yield Forecast • List subsample from June • Ask for acreage to harvest • Ask for expected yield • All producing States • Telephone collections • July 30-August 4

  13. August Objective Yield • Subsample from June Area • Select random fields • Plant counts, row measurements and fruit counts • Major States only • June 25 - August 4

  14. Later Crop Forecasts • Similar surveys to August • Comparable timing • September, October and November • Repeat Objective Yield visits

  15. End of Season Yields • Large subsample from June list • Acres harvested and yield • All producing States • Fruit weights from Objective Yield • Complete survey by December 15

  16. Prospective Plantings • Subsample from previous June • Mail and Telephone • March 1 - 15

  17. Estimating ProceduresAcreage • Direct Expansions • 1% cv’s US • 2-3% cv’s Major States • Ratios to previous years

  18. Estimating ProceduresMonthly Yield • Relationships to previous surveys and final yields • Mathematical models for Objective Yield based on previous years

  19. Estimating ProceduresEnd of Season • Review all survey acreage, yield and production data • Utilize administrative data

  20. Estimating ProceduresProspective Plantings • Survey expansions • Ratio to total cropland • Ratio to previous years

  21. Estimating ProceduresCounty Estimates • Use all survey data • Use administrative data • Landsat Classifications in some States • Set Districts from State • Set Counties from Districts

  22. Other Crop InformationWeekly Weather Crop • Opinion survey from Extension and other local reporters • April until harvest • Designed to measure crop progress • Crop conditions also asked

  23. Other Crop InformationAVHRR Based Vegetation Condition • Data base approach • Convert to statistical products • Year to year comparisons • Comparisons to median • Crop specific masks

  24. Other Crop InformationCropland Data Layer • Crop specific categorized Landsat data • Up to 10 States • NASS with State and Federal Partners • Public use GIS format

  25. Agricultural Statistics Board(ASB) • State Offices edit and summarize • State Offices analyze indications • State Offices submit recommendations • ASB reviews indications at National and Regional level • ASB sets final forecasts and estimates

  26. ASB Monthly Timing • 3-day intensity period • Review and set harvested acreage • Review and set smaller State yields • Major State yields reviewed and set only under lock-up conditions

  27. ASB Lock-up Example Timing • Lock-up at Midnight • Decrypt State recommendations • Set U. S. corn yield at 12:30 a.m. • Finish State review by 3:00 a.m. for WAOB • Prepare final report by 6:00 a.m. • Release at 8:30 a.m.

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