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PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECON MICO REP BLICA DE PANAM

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PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECON MICO REP BLICA DE PANAM

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    1. PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECONÓMICO REPÚBLICA DE PANAMÁ David Saied Director de Políticas Públicas - MEF

    2. TENDENCIAS ECON INTERNACIONALES Y SUS POSIBLES EFECTOS SOBRE NUESTRA ECONOMÍA

    3. LA GRÁFICA MUESTRA QUE NORMALMENTE EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO PANAMEÑO SE HA VISTO NEGATIVAMENTE AFECTADO CUANDO LA RESERVA FEDERAL HA AUMENTADO SUS TASAS DE INTERÉS LA GRÁFICA MUESTRA QUE NORMALMENTE EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO PANAMEÑO SE HA VISTO NEGATIVAMENTE AFECTADO CUANDO LA RESERVA FEDERAL HA AUMENTADO SUS TASAS DE INTERÉS

    4. Deficit Cuenta Corriente Récord - EUA The economic malaise caused by U.S. record current account deficit and record debt will not be cured anytime soon. This is the main reason why the dollar has been falling. The rise in interest rates might help the Dollar but it will most likely stifle US economic growth. On the other hand, if Greenspan does not raise rates high enough, inflation, caused in great part due to the increased money supply (due to the Fed easing), will not be curbed, and the Dollar will remain low or fall even further. Raising rates will slow down the US economy and will possible create a recession. US fundamentals do not look good, specially since the government is not taking strong measures to curb spending and reduce its fiscal deficit. The economic malaise caused by U.S. record current account deficit and record debt will not be cured anytime soon. This is the main reason why the dollar has been falling. The rise in interest rates might help the Dollar but it will most likely stifle US economic growth. On the other hand, if Greenspan does not raise rates high enough, inflation, caused in great part due to the increased money supply (due to the Fed easing), will not be curbed, and the Dollar will remain low or fall even further. Raising rates will slow down the US economy and will possible create a recession. US fundamentals do not look good, specially since the government is not taking strong measures to curb spending and reduce its fiscal deficit.

    5. Dólar v. Euro

    6. Exceso de Euros On this score between 1994 to 2004 the Euro-zone money printer has been working much faster than its American counterpart (see chart). In other words, money growth in the Euro-zone relative to the growth of real goods and services has been much larger than in the US. This indicates that the Euro is due to a fall in value against the dollar. The recent fall of the Dollar vs. Euro has been mostly caused by the drop in value of the dollar vs. all other currencies and due to the current account deficit depicted formerly.On this score between 1994 to 2004 the Euro-zone money printer has been working much faster than its American counterpart (see chart). In other words, money growth in the Euro-zone relative to the growth of real goods and services has been much larger than in the US. This indicates that the Euro is due to a fall in value against the dollar. The recent fall of the Dollar vs. Euro has been mostly caused by the drop in value of the dollar vs. all other currencies and due to the current account deficit depicted formerly.

    7. PERSPECTIVAS CREDITICIAS

    8. Que han dicho las Calificadoras y Bancos de Inversión sobre Panamá S&P: “…la perspectiva estable refleja las mejoras esperadas en el déficit fiscal del gobierno y en la dinámica de la deuda luego de la aprobación de la reciente reforma fiscal y el prospecto de una reforma a la CSS.” 18 DE FEBRERO, 2005 Credit Suisse/First Boston: “El programa fiscal está bien encarrilado. Nueva información sobre la contabilidad fiscal apoya nuestra opinión de que el nuevo equiopo económico ve con seriedad el mejoramiento de las finanzas públicas. El gobierno ha reconocido cietos pasivos, ha realizado mejoras significativas en su posición de cuentas por pagar, y ha adoptado prácticas contables transparentes, reconocidas internacionalmente. Nos mantenemos muy positivos sobre la perspectiva de Panamá a mediano plazo.” 16 DE MARZO, 2005 Fitch: “…se ha visto una fuerte recuperación económica y los esfuerzos de la nueva administración para fortalecer las finanzas públicas, según la pronta aprobación de la reforma fiscal…y mejoras en transparencia fiscal.” 8 DE ABRIL, 2005

    9. Riesgo País Panamá

    12. ECONOMÍA PANAMEÑA FACTORES INTERNOS ACTUAL Y PROYECCIONES

    13. Crec PIB por Sector

    14. Proyección de Crecimiento Mainly due to interest rate tightening.Mainly due to interest rate tightening.

    15. Empleo: Sectores Principales

    18. Finanzas Públicas Fuentes y Usos 2004 ....

    19. Cambio en Deuda Pública 2004 Main increase attributed to : $600 million prefund $208 million in domestic Treasury Notes Financing sources for 2004 were predominantly from public institutions for up to US$461.0 million, mainly Banco Nacional de Panamá. Main increase attributed to : $600 million prefund $208 million in domestic Treasury Notes Financing sources for 2004 were predominantly from public institutions for up to US$461.0 million, mainly Banco Nacional de Panamá.

    22. NFPS Fiscal deficit for 2005 expected to close at 3.6% Borrowing needs from capital markets is US$953 million International capital markets US$ 600 million Domestic capital markets US$ 83 million Out of the remaining US$270 million borrowing needs, an estimate of US$118 million represents Treasury note rollover issue with placed among government institutions As of today it represents a comfortable positionNFPS Fiscal deficit for 2005 expected to close at 3.6% Borrowing needs from capital markets is US$953 million International capital markets US$ 600 million Domestic capital markets US$ 83 million Out of the remaining US$270 million borrowing needs, an estimate of US$118 million represents Treasury note rollover issue with placed among government institutions As of today it represents a comfortable position

    23. Saneamiento de las Finanzas Públicas Services sectors are – Canal, Ports, Colon Free Zone, Tourism The agro and industrial sector reflect low growth Drawbacks Last 5 yrs up to 2003 on average real growth has being 2.7%, even though in 2004 growth was 6.2% 40% of the population is poor Higher income individuals perceive 40 times more, than poor people vs 10 times more in develop countries Salaried employees level remains constant through the last four years, informal labor has grown through the last few years. Negative savings of NFPS In 2004 is B/ 240.0 Millions Services sectors are – Canal, Ports, Colon Free Zone, Tourism The agro and industrial sector reflect low growth Drawbacks Last 5 yrs up to 2003 on average real growth has being 2.7%, even though in 2004 growth was 6.2% 40% of the population is poor Higher income individuals perceive 40 times more, than poor people vs 10 times more in develop countries Salaried employees level remains constant through the last four years, informal labor has grown through the last few years. Negative savings of NFPS In 2004 is B/ 240.0 Millions

    24. Saneamiento de Finanzas Públicas -Seguro Social Principales temas de Reforma a la CSS Actualmente, flujos anuales financieros negativos Status quo implica cero reservas en el 2012 Administración y Sistema de salud ineficiente Cambios Potenciales Mejora en la factibilidad financiera a largo plazo del sistema Mejoras en la coordinación del sistema de salud Administración eficiente del portafolio Eficacia y efectividad de la administración SOURCE CSS Negative/ financial flows of $60 million Improve health coordination between Health Ministry and CSS Portfolio management to achieve returns similar to Trust Fiduciary Fund Improved investment strategy with Banco Nacional de Panama on average estimated returns of 4.98% for reserves from previous 1.0 % SOURCE CSS Negative/ financial flows of $60 million Improve health coordination between Health Ministry and CSS Portfolio management to achieve returns similar to Trust Fiduciary Fund Improved investment strategy with Banco Nacional de Panama on average estimated returns of 4.98% for reserves from previous 1.0 %

    25. Cuentas x Pagar B/. 503.1 Millones - 1 Sep 04 B/. 148.7 Millones - 31 Dic 04 B/. 34.8 Millones - 14 Mar 05

    26. Ingresos 2005 B/.490.2 Millones 1er Trimestre B/. 26.3 Millones por encima de Presupuesto (+5.7%) MARZO: ISR Personas Jurídicas +11.5M ISR Planillas +9.5M

    27. SECTORES ESTRATÉGICOS Y PROYECTOS 2005-2009

    28. TLC ES IMPORTANTE

    29. Expansión del Canal Puede cambiar la estructura de nuestra economía

    30. ACCIONES EN OTRAS ÁREAS 2005-2009 PROGRAMA COMPITE Y REFORMAS UTPP: DESREGULACION ELIMINAR BARRERAS ACCESO A MERCADOS (REDUCIR MONOPOLIOS/OLIGOPOLIOS) REFORMA JUDICIAL ++ ARBITRAJE REDUCIR GASTO PÚBLICO & LOGRAR GRADO DE INVERSION ATTRACCION DE INVERSIONES FORMACIÓN DE CONGLOMERADOS

    32. Singapur Exportaciones 1960 Caucho Pesca Productos Primarios

    34. COMPITE PANAMÁ PROGRAMA ACTÚA EN 2 NIVELES:

    35. CONGLOMERADOS DE COMPITE (a la fecha)

    36. TRANSPORTE Y LOGÍSTICA AREA CLUSTER 1

    39. TURISMO AREA CLUSTER 2

    40. TURISMO: POLOS CON MAYOR POTENCIAL

    41. AGRO-INDUSTRIA AREA DE CLUSTER 3

    46. FUTURO AGRO: ENFOCADO EN TRÓPICO SANDÍA MELÓN PIÑA ÑAME YUCA NONI MARAÑÓN MANGO CARNE Y GANADO CAFÉ ORGÁNICO PRODUCTOS ORGÁNICOS Y GOURMETS

    47. TECNOLOGÍA Y TELECOMUNICACIONES AREA DE CLUSTER 4

    49. PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECONÓMICO REPÚBLICA DE PANAMÁ ¡MUCHAS GRACIAS! David Saied Director de Políticas Públicas - MEF

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