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Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling

Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling. Penny Kloprogge. Contents. Choices in modelling Introduction Consequences of choices Making choices Value-ladeness Steps in the Value-ladeness project Research agenda MUST. What assumptions to make?. What

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Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling

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  1. Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling Penny Kloprogge

  2. Contents • Choices in modelling • Introduction • Consequences of choices • Making choices • Value-ladeness • Steps in the Value-ladeness project • Research agenda MUST

  3. What assumptions to make? What outcome variables? Which data sets? How link interdisciplinary modules? Which scenarios to run? Which modelling method? Treat variables endogenous or exogenous? How set problem boundaries? What policy measures to include? How deal with uncertainties? What causal relationships? Which aggregation level? How set up equations? Which underlying theory? What parameter values to choose? What input variables? Some choices in the modelling process

  4. Consequences of choices • Certain knowledge and perspectives are incorporated in the model -> value-ladeness • The model and the outcomes may depend significantly on choices made • Different outcomes may lead to different understandings and policy advise

  5. Interpretation Preferences Moral convictions Influenced by Culture, training, experience, perspective on risk, etc Making choices (1) • Choices influenced by: • objectives; • restrictions; • common practice; • choices/wishes of others; • values of the person making the choice

  6. Making choices (2) • Not just the choice making itself matters, but also: • Determining that an issue requires choices to be made • Making an inventory of options • Evaluating the choice There is a choice process, containing several steps

  7. Value-ladeness • System characteristics -> determines room for value-ladeness • Societal relevance of the issue -> influences importance value-ladeness

  8. Steps in the Value-ladeness project (1) • Making an inventory of types and sources of value-ladeness • Mapping which types and sources are currently dealt with in practice using uncertainty strategies, through stakeholder involvement, through peer review, good practice guidelines

  9. Steps in the Value-ladeness project (2) • Developing recommendations for a more systematic and more comprehensive treatment of value-ladeness • recommendations with regard to application of methods • checklist that can be used by modellers that • helps create awareness on value-ladeness of choices • helps communicate value-laden issues • helps incorporate plurality

  10. Research agenda MUST • Testing checklist-instrument • Dissemination conceptual framework and checklist-instrument • Research into cultural and institutional changes required for transparent treatment of value-ladeness • Value-ladeness in the utilisation of model based knowledge in policy processes

  11. IA modelling and the policy process

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