young economists in ragusa 20 oleh havrylyshyn comment on stanisic terrorism and fdi n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
YOUNG ECONOMISTS IN RAGUSA,20 Oleh Havrylyshyn, comment on STANISIC “ Terrorism and FDI” PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
YOUNG ECONOMISTS IN RAGUSA,20 Oleh Havrylyshyn, comment on STANISIC “ Terrorism and FDI”

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 8

YOUNG ECONOMISTS IN RAGUSA,20 Oleh Havrylyshyn, comment on STANISIC “ Terrorism and FDI” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 116 Views
  • Uploaded on

YOUNG ECONOMISTS IN RAGUSA,20 Oleh Havrylyshyn, comment on STANISIC “ Terrorism and FDI”. NOVELTY OF PAPER. ESTIMATE EFFECT OF TERRORISM ON FDI USING COUNTRY-PAIR FLOWS ESTIMATES “SPILL-OVER EFFECTS” SUCH AS : ATTACKS ON CANADIAN TARGETS, FDI FROM CANADA FALLS, IRISH FDI STEPS IN.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'YOUNG ECONOMISTS IN RAGUSA,20 Oleh Havrylyshyn, comment on STANISIC “ Terrorism and FDI”' - graham-rowland


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
novelty of paper
NOVELTY OF PAPER
  • ESTIMATE EFFECT OF TERRORISM ON FDI USING COUNTRY-PAIR FLOWS
  • ESTIMATES “SPILL-OVER EFFECTS” SUCH AS : ATTACKS ON CANADIAN TARGETS, FDI FROM CANADA FALLS, IRISH FDI STEPS IN.
  • DATA VERY RECENT, LONGER PERIOD
  • MORE DETAILED DATA OF TERRORIST ATACKS
key conclusions
KEY CONCLUSIONS
  • TERRORIST ATTACKS NEGATIVE AND SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON PAIR-WISE FDI FLOWS
  • SIZE OF IMPACT QUITE LARGE: ONE S.D. INCR. IN ATTACKS, FDI FALLS 12 %
  • INVESTORS OPPORTUNISTIC: IF TARGETED SENDERS DECREASE FDI, NON-TARGETED SENDERS REPLACE THEM WITH INCREASE OF FDI
key issues to address
KEY ISSUES TO ADDRESS
  • IS RESULT DRIVEN BY OUTLIERS, CLUSTERS?
  • DOES HIGH S.D. OF TERRORIST ATTACKS (3-14X mean) EXXAGERATE SIZE OF IMPACT?
  • ARE SMALLER FLOWS DOMINATED BY EPISODIC PROJECT INVESTMENTS?____________________

MINOR AND EDITORIAL ISSUES if time

outliers or clusters
OUTLIERS &/or CLUSTERS?
  • NO. OF ATTACKS LARGE, BUT APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY OUTLIERS.-see Tab.2. – TOP 5 RECEIVERS = 65% /// TOP 5 SENDERS=85% and US ALONE= 54%
  • VERY LARGE % OF CELLS ZERO FOR BOTH FDI AND ATTACKS
  • THE ABOVE SUGGESTS OUTLIER PROBLEM– NEED TO DISCUSS IF SO, HOW TREATED, HOW IT AFFECTS EFFICIENCY OF ESTIMATE FOR TER. COEFFICIENT
  • INCIDENTALLY , TREATMENT OF ZERO FDI UNCLEAR: SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERED AS MISSING DATA BUT : ZERO CAN BE THE ACTUAL VALUE
high sd of terattack variable
HIGH SD. OF TERATTACK VARIABLE
  • On p.18 , pair attacks effect: very sensible to focus on pair attacks as these most likely to result in reduced FDI
  • HOWEVER the 14% decrease may exaggerate reality- it is result of a NINE-FOLD increase of attacks , very unlikely – a doubling seems more plausibel : does coefficient mean doubling leads to FDI decrease of 1/9th of 14% = 1,56%??
small flows dominated by single projects
SMALL FLOWS DOMINATED BY SINGLE PROJECTS ?
  • It is not uncommon in FDI from and to smaller countries that 1 or 2 projects in given year cause a spike in data– seems to be the case in Fig. 3 ?
  • That makes the interpretations on p. 27 about Irish opportunists questionable:could interpret fig 3 differently:
  • CAN.FDI spikes in 2000,smaller 2002;-- TERATAK spikes in 2004 BUT CANFDI rises 2007 to new highs
  • Irish FDI does increase in 2005, after ( but not necc due to ) TERATAK of 2004, and at levels far lower than the CAN values of 2000-2002
  • AUTHOR SHOULD HEED OWN WARNING p.22: TO STUDY SPILLOVERS NEED MORE DATA ON TIMING, TYPE OF INDUSTRY –eg. on last– for oil company, a TERATAK may be no more costly than failed well.; remember early literature important distinction of FDI for resource extraction , for manuf.exports, for local market-