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Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri.dk

Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri.dk. Københavns Universitet, 2002. Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects. Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X,…..)

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Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri.dk

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  1. Mælkevejen og Jordens klimaHenrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri.dk Københavns Universitet, 2002

  2. Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects • Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X,…..) • Latch-up induced failures (ESR-1, PRARE, Equator-S,…..) • SEU’s in linear circuits…(Anik 1 &2) • Solar Array problems/degradation (Tempo, PanAm, ECS,….) • More recent satellite failures: • Telestar 401 • TV links etc.. • Galaxy IV • silenced 80% of pagers in North America • More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather Effects • Last 4 years space losses may have exceeded $500 million • Commercial interests often do not allow anomaly reporting.

  3. Damage to transformers Damage to a transformer at a power plant Delaware, New Jersey Price: 10 mill USD Repair can take up to 1 year. In this particular case they were lucky to find a used one from a shut down plant. Took only 6 weeks to restore Sweden: simultaneous power loss in six 130 kV power distribution lines Chicago: Five transformers in the Chicago area failed due to elevated geomagnetic activity

  4. New Particle formation: Observations and Theory • Observed nucleation rates are much larger than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory • The functional dependence of the observed nucleation rate of [H2SO4] is much weaker (~ [H2SO4]2 )than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory (~ [H2SO4]10 ) • Measured growth rates of freshly formed nanoparticles are about a factor of 10 higher than can be explained by H2SO4 and its associated H2O and NH3

  5. t: Time to grow from rc to r* ri rc T (sek) 400 300 t ~ 200 sek for [H2SO4] = 2.5 107 pr cc 200 100 r* 0 0 5 10 Ion-pair/cc/sek Micro-physics: Why in the lower part of the atmosphere? DG r

  6. Experimental evidence of enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation Natural level of ionisation Artificial air N2:O2 = 4:1 SO2 = 300 ppb C2H4 = 100 ppb O3 = 160 ppb Vohra et al., Atmos. Environment, 18, 1653 (1984)

  7. Cosmic ray variations ionisation and aerosol formation Based on Numerical studies by Yu, 2001

  8. CLOUD experimenet ved CERN

  9. Solaktivitet og Klima Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe

  10. IR Cloud properties and Cosmic rays Cosmic Ray - Low Cloud Top Temperature Correlation only found in low clouds Marsh and Svensmark, PRL 2000

  11. Little Ice age (~ 1300-1800) Documented in Europe Greenland Sargasso Sea Peru East Africa Japan Caribbean Sea West Africa Taiwan and China South Africa USA Argentina

  12. Ice-ages and spiral arms Cosmic ray flux is larger in spiral arms One revolution take about 240 Mill years Spiral arm crossings every 140 Mill years

  13. Ice-ages and spiral arms Nir Shaviv, PRL 2002

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