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2012-13 Crop Feast or Famine?

2012-13 Crop Feast or Famine?. 2012-13 Corn Acreage. Can we plant 94 million acres? 95 million? Two bad corn-on-corn years, especially IL Drought in Southern Plains and Southeast (Northern Cornbelt) Winter Wheat Planting Have soybeans tried to bid back acres? Is it too late?.

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2012-13 Crop Feast or Famine?

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  1. 2012-13 CropFeast or Famine?

  2. 2012-13 Corn Acreage • Can we plant 94 million acres? 95 million? • Two bad corn-on-corn years, especially IL • Drought in Southern Plains and Southeast (Northern Cornbelt) • Winter Wheat Planting • Have soybeans tried to bid back acres? Is it too late?

  3. Problems with Corn on Corn in Illinois Source: Monsanto Technology Development; Iowa State University Extension, Corn Growth and Development March 2011

  4. Problems with Corn on Corn in Illinois Source: Monsanto Technology Development; Iowa State University Extension, Corn Growth and Development March 2011

  5. County Average Corn Yields

  6. Winter Wheat Planting Source: USDA, NASS

  7. Corn vs. Soybean Prices Data Source: CME

  8. Planted Acreage Projections

  9. Average Yield Projections

  10. 2012-13 Corn Production at Trend Harvested acreage 7 million lower than planted

  11. 2012-13 Corn Production off Trend Harvested acreage 7 million lower than planted PRX163.9 bu/acre trend yield

  12. Possible 2012-13 Supply & Demand Source: PRX

  13. Changes in Demand • Feed & Residual • Livestock profitability is being driven by exports • Beef continued contraction from drought • Pork slight expansion • Poultry modest expansion • Dairy slight contraction • Residual expands and contracts with the size of the crop • Ethanol • Current margins are negative • Ethanol stocks are high • Will ethanol exports be there this year? • Will high gasoline price accelerate declining consumption? • Exports • Up some, Up a lot?

  14. Argentine Corn Source: USDA, FAS PSD

  15. Ukrainian Corn Source: USDA, FAS PSD

  16. U.S. Average Farm Price, Corn

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